The more I hear about this the more I feel this is going to be a huge investment opportunity. Driverless cars are about halfway there in the mainstream already with higher end cars having sensors detecting unwanted lane changes or following too close to the vehicle in front of you. This also follows the airline industry technology as planes pretty much fly themselves now. Google is big in this sector as are some other tech giants. Apple is another one.
Thoughts?
Comments
Google is certainly a big name in this theme, but I think what the thing is with Google is that it's so significantly ad revenue and CEO Eric Schmidt said on CNBC that "it probably will be for the next 3-5 years." Interesting that Google will look very different in the years ahead as various new projects will likely start becoming a greater and greater share of the focus.
The company that I think is a smaller, less discussed possible play on this (not yet, but down the road) is Trimble Navigation (TRMB). I don't own it, but I do think it's a very interesting company.
Nissan is demoing their self-driving car: http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelkanellos/2013/10/09/nissans-autonomous-car-a-test-drive/
Valeo (VLEEY) is a French auto tech company that is a more definite/pure play on this theme and at least that pays a div. They are already working on this: http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2012/08/15/valeo-works-toward-autonomous-vehicles-in-troy/
Continental AG (CTTAY) is another foreign name. They are working with IBM and possibly Google (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/10/us-autoshow-frankfurt-continental-ibm-idUSBRE9890CO20130910)
It is something to watch for sure. If there are any losers in this transition it will be law enforcement as speeding tickets would be history. Traffic jams would also be a thing of the past.
Probably ten to twenty years yet before this becomes reality. Thanks for those links Scott.
All major auto makers are working on this. My guess is they will team with established technology companies in the same way Ford developed "Sync" along with Microsoft for their cars several years ago. Find out who they're teaming with and there may be investment opportunities.
(PS: This will take some of the fun out of being a teenager. Borrowing the family car to go to the "library" will cease to be a useful pretext for more nefarious adventures:-)
I think it is hard to pick a winner here. You need a car that can navigate parking lots, etc. I think Google may have an advantage but they may not commercialize the technology for some time, and it is not a pure-play investment into the space.
Here is another question, WHO IS THE WINNER IN THE MEDIA CONSUMPTION EVOLUTION?
At some point, cable companies see people head towards other alternatives instead of pay TV (and really, maybe it's just me, but TV - with the exception of some bright spots - is weaker and weaker.)
I think cable companies do well from the standpoint of cable internet for the time being, but you have other things on the horizon like Google and Google Fiber in an increasing amount of areas.
The other service that I find interesting is the most controversial - Aereo. Internet/media conglomerate IAC Interactive (IACI) is a lot of stuff that I'm not that interested in, but they do have an investment in Aereo (which is a private company) and IAC ceo Barry Diller is on the board of Aereo. Very small part of IAC, but a roundabout way to play a much-discussed company.
For those unfamiliar with Aereo (I think it's only in a few major markets so far): https://aereo.com/about
Liberty Media (LMCA) is a very compelling opportunistic vehicle to play media and communications, chaired by John Malone. There is also Liberty Ventures, Liberty Global (cable) and Liberty Interactive and there will soon be others.
American Tower (AMT) and other cell tower companies continue to do well, although Google is now providing internet using balloons.
From a technical standpoint, I believe that Cisco (CSCO) will benefit from the increased consumption of data, although it's been disappointing lately. Qualcomm has done well. Liberty has done very well.
So, there are things that are working now, but over the horizon I see things likely changing and probably substantially so.
I do think that Google is also a play on this, although again, it's part of the idea that the Google of five years from now many look different or very different from the Google of today.
As for autonomous driving, I think 10 years or less.
And you don't REALLY think class action lawyers aren't mastur ... uh ... salivating over the prospect of suing anyone and everyone that's remotely in the supply chain when (not "if," "when") the first mass accident involving an autonomously driven vehicle occurs?
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Well, you also have to worry about everything going full Skynet.
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They're making a video game called "Watch Dogs" focusing on a hacker vigilante who can hack into city operations (streetlights, power grid, bridges, other people's phones as he walks by, all sorts of things).
The game takes place in a "near future" version of Chicago where many city operations are handled by a central operating system.
There are already discussions of making a "Watch Dogs" movie.
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"What If?" Teaser
Trailer
Scott, balloons, like weather ?
Thanks Derf
"The Untold Story of Google’s Quest to Bring the Internet Everywhere—By Balloon"
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2013/08/googlex-project-loon/