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Emerging Funds that I am considering adding or adding more to my portfolio.

edited October 2013 in Fund Discussions

Over the past few weeks it appears that the emerging market sector and real estate are coming back from a lagging period.

I presently hold DREGX. It has very little small cap so I am considering adding DRESX with the reservation that it does not have a long record


The following 4 EM funds and one ETF are funds that I am considering adding or adding more to my portfolio. You can see that ETF's do not do as well indicating that the alpha of the MF are important for return in emerging markets.

Other comments on emerging market funds that you plan on buying would be appreciated.
.

Symbol Fund Name 1 Wk 13 Wk YTD 1 Yr 3 Yr (Annualized) 5 Yr (Annualized) 10 Yr (Annualized)
DREGX Driehaus:Emerg Mkt Gr 1.50% 5.74% 8.36% 16.99% 4.54% 18.61% 15.04%
DRESX Driehaus:EM SmCap Gro 1.42% 2.02% 8.51% 17.30% -- -- --
GBFAX Van Eck:Emerg Mkts;A 2.37% 5.48% 7.03% 17.27% 2.77% 20.38% 11.53%
FRONX Forward:Frnt Strtgy;Inv 0.26% 4.20% 16.53% 17.77% 0.87% -- --
VWO Vanguard FTSE Em Mkt ETF 1.63% 7.57% -3.22% 4.61% -0.75% 14.13%

Comments

  • Seafarer still has not risen to a level some might have expected and been waiting to see. It is worldwide, not limited to EM, though. SFGIX.

    ALSO: EM debt. It will rise out of its doldrums so long as worldwide equities are not in a swoon. MAINX. I recently added to that one. It amounted to a 33% increase in the dollar-amount I had invested there, originally. Still not a big player in my portfolio.
  • Reply to @MaxBialystock:
    I only recently noticed that emerging market funds don't have nearly the percentage of equities in emerging market countries as one (or at least I) might expect. M* reports the median EM percentage of diversified EM funds is 68.5%. Seafarer's 65/35 split fits right in there.

    You're right that its charter allows it to go anywhere, but unlike a vanilla international fund, Seafarer "may invest a significant amount of its net assets (50% to 80% under normal market conditions) in" EM securities. (From prospectus.) That says that where it is now (EM exposure squarely in the middle of the pack) is where one should normally expect to find it.

    In the way of a "compare and contrast" exercise, look at TGBAX (Templeton Global Bond Fund). It has gone up to 100% in EM bonds (though it seems to have pulled back lately). That's a fund that could look like an EM bond fund because a snapshot found it that way, but unlike Seafarer, there's no assurance that it would tend to stay in emerging markets.

    Personally, I prefer to pay others (i.e. fund managers) to watch the trends and shift money from market to market gradually as the patterns develop. That's why I'm more inclined to invest in diversified international funds where the managers have lots of flexibility and will dive into emerging markets when it seems appropriate. In that sense, I would personally find Seafarer somewhat more attractive than "pure" EM funds. YMMV.

  • edited October 2013
    Hi prinx. If you have not already read the September commentary, David has a good piece on EM funds. Note recommendation for anticipated Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities (GPEOX).

    Here are latest MFO Ratings for funds mentioned above, plus a couple others:

    image

    Both Driehaus funds are Great Owls.
  • edited October 2013
    charlies: could you add THDIX to your list or is it not applicable here?
  • edited October 2013
    Reply to @linter: My pleasure. It too is an MFO Great Owl...

    image

    PS. If you double-click on image, it will go full screen.
  • Hi Charles,
    Would it be possible to develop a MFO ratings chart of the top 15 performing emerging markets mutual funds over the past 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. I am intrigued by the data that David has shown in his September commentary about emerging markets being a promising asset class in terms of valuation. However, I'd like to research some additional funds to the ones he has suggested. Such a chart would prove really helpful in knowing which additional funds to focus on.

    thanks
    Michael
  • edited October 2013
    Hi Mike. Here you go...top performing funds in Diversified EM Equity Category. Hope this helps:

    image
    image
    image

    JIC, here's link to MFO Ratings Definitions page.
  • Wow Charles this is perfect. Thanks so much for providing the extensive breakdown. This is really helpful. I'm going to start researching these and will follow up with any questions. Are the funds highlighted based on those who received a 5 in a majority of the time periods shown or other criteria?
  • edited October 2013
    Reply to @MikeW: You're welcome. The highlighted funds are MFO Great Owls...received a 5 Return for all evaluation periods applicable, 3 years and longer. So, a 20 year Great Owl is a rare bird indeed, having delivered top quintile risk adjusted returns across 3, 5, 10, and 20 year evaluations periods! There are only about 70 or so such funds.
  • OK, I'm confused as usual, here. The only 20 year fund I see is TPINX and it doesn't seem to rate "5"s across the board. DREGX looks very good for 10 years and Kiplinger touted it this month.
    Have you a chart limited to the "70 or so" 20 year Great Owl funds?
  • For a fund that has been around since 1997, DREGX has very high expenses. While I subscribe to higher expenses should = higher returns, and DREGX has strong numbers, a 278% turnover with only 100 stocks seems more than a bit much. Despite its relatively modest risk numbers, I would suggest this is not a fund for the faint of heart.
  • Reply to @STB65: Hi STB65. You're not confused at all. There are no 20-year Diversity EM Great Owl funds....none even close. The ones evaluated were:

    Acadian EMs Instl (AEMGX)
    Morgan Stanley Inst EMs I (MGEMX)
    Templeton Instl EMs Ser Adv (TEEMX)
    Russell Emerging Markets S (REMSX)
    BlackRock EMs Instl (MADCX)
    Templeton Dev Mkts A (TEDMX)
    Fidelity Emerging Markets (FEMKX)

    FEMKX has worst record of bunch.

    Hoping to post all the MFO GOs this quarter shortly.
  • edited October 2013
    Reply to @BobC: I agree. DREGX lost a heart-stopping 62% between fall of 2007 and spring of 2009, and only just now recovering...although just about everything was slammed back in 2008. Hate the 1.66% ER on $1.5B AUM. Hard to argue its long term record though. M* does not deem it worthy of a color code. Maybe David will put it on his profile candidate list.

    Here's M* performance plot:

    image
  • Reply to @Charles: “Hoping to post all the MFO GOs this quarter shortly.” This would be helpful so thanks in advance! In early August, you (Chip & David Snowball linked, too) made the results available for the 2nd quarter, 2013 which included the universe of mutual funds as well as ETFs with MFO’s Great Owl funds highlighted. Are you up to providing the 3rd quarter rankings for all mutual funds/ETFs so the Great Owls could be compared? Caveat: David Snowball warned that the results should not be opened in “edit” mode. You’re work at MFO is greatly appreciated. Rick
  • With regard to BobC's comment.
    DREGX will go into my rollover IRA and will be a small percentage of the total. The -62% loss during 2007-2009 would occur of course if you stayed with it. I am disciplined and monitor and sell when there is a certain amount of loss.

    I too believe in paying a higher ER if the long term return is very good. For years I only looked at funds if they had low ER's and I missed some great returns. I now have come to the conclusion that the return is net of the expenses. If other people did not think the way I now do then the high ER funds would dry up .
    prinx
  • prinx: what "certain amount of loss" are you willing to take, how did you arrive at it, and have you quantified in practice how this has worked out for you?
  • I will take up to an 8% loss from the last high. I am not sure how it will work since I have only thought about since after the end of the 2007-2009 DD. Since that time I have not picked a fund that has lost the 8%. Hope I never have to find out.
    prinx
  • edited October 2013
    Reply to @prinx: Keep your DREGX ,great long term results,as everyone has said.Add TGMEX for a EM Bond/EM Large-Cap component with BISAX.lw for an EM smid-cap value component. Re-balance annually!
  • Reply to @prinx:
    thanks for that. over the decades, i've tried to implement various similar stop-loss ideas with a success rate of nearly ... 0%. it's much easier to think about and plan for and so on than it is to actually put into effect, at least for me. in your shoes, once i hit that 8% mark, i'd let it ride to 8.5%, then 9%, all because hope springs eternal. and then i'd sell out at some even greater loss and be so traumatized that, when the market turned around, it did so without me for wwwwway toooo long. or else i'd sell out at 8% and the market would turn around right then, leaving me in the lurch and not knowing what to do.
    ymmv, obviously, and i hope it does. good luck out there!
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