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Curb Your Expections Warns, Pimco's El-Erian

TedTed
edited July 2013 in Fund Discussions
FYI
Regards,
Ted

Comments

  • Link please
  • Here's the link to the Financial Times article: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/05883196-e8c9-11e2-aead-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Z9AtKShv

    Respond to a one question survey or subscribe to the Financial Times to read the whole article.

    Take-home points:

    • Appropriate expectations for returns: "We think 3 to 5 per cent [return] for the markets as a whole is what is reasonable."
    • we are "light years away" from normal monetary policy cycle
    • "a major disconnect between fundamentals and prices" affects most asset classes, including equities
    He also says some things about where he sees value right now that you would expect the CEO of PIMCO to say.
  • So basically we need to go along for the ride for "light years" while toner in Bernanke's printer does not run out, and then head for the hills.

    More, More. Give me more !!!:-)
  • edited July 2013
    It is the top link at Yahoo Finance at this time. Direct links do not work:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/category-mutual-funds/
  • What else is he going to say when his funds are struggling?
  • edited July 2013
    The U.S. markets get so much "hype", its just simply amazing. Growth is anemic, earnings beat estimates as analysts continually lower the bar. But we all know equities also churn upwards thanks to the backing of the Fed. Its like a well-oiled machine. And it just continues on.

    Bernanke's slip was just a hiccup for 2013. Its been forgotten.

    With each barrier the Dow breaks (14K, 15K, etc), more retail money will funnel in, especially since bonds are no longer viewed as a gimme. I cite the Dow because so many media outlets trumpet this 30 stock index each day. "Dow up triple digits"....ok, that might only be 0.66%, but hey, it makes for good headlines!

    We keep such short-term memories, its surprising that tech stocks don't sport P/E ratios in the 40s again. But that may yet come.
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: After a decade of anemic returns, stocks seem to be coming into their own finally. Here's M* fair value plot on market valuation...about where it should be, not overly inflated or deflated, seems like:

    image
  • Reply to @Mark: Makes one wonder doesn't it. We all need to do good job of evaluating numbers. Most celebrities seem to have made their reputation in the extended bull market. El Erian is revered for his handling of Harvard's Endowment Fund I think. Anyone knows during which years?

    Wonder we simply have a Bill Miller with an accent here. I never bought into the Miller hype, but I have a very small percentage of my retirement assets in PGMDX. Nothing that'll break the bank, but that's besides the point. Need to re-evaluate.
  • Reply to @Charles: Interesting chart, thanks Charles. I wonder how they calculate "fair value".
  • El-Erian maybe one of the 'smarter one' out there, don't know if his records are good but he seems to make sense to me most of the time...
  • Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: They have several articles on the this page under Related Articles column:

    http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
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