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Just gotta love the markets, eh???

edited July 2013 in Fund Discussions
Finviz futures as of 11pm, EST.

--- Asian markets ahead, + 1 thru +2%

---Futures

DJIA, SP500,Nasdaq,Russell 2000.....+.9% range
Gold and Silver.....+3% range
30 yr T..... +.9%
10 yr T..... +.7%
$US index..... -1.42%

Ten dart tosses would get one ahead for tomorrow, at this point in time,eh?

And folks from my age group thought drugs did funny things to one's head. Markets are surreal, too.

11 bells and all is well. Time to go to bed.

Regards,
Catch



Comments

  • edited July 2013
    One starts to question if QE and ZIRP will end before another administration takes office. If Yellen or Summers (please the former instead of the latter if those are the two options....) takes over for Bernanke, it's going to be more of the same.
  • i don't get it. DOWs should be down by 20s% - 30s% now or the very near future since the all time high [at least this is what the pundits are saying]. I guess we have to wait for another 2-5 years until this happen. I guess if the FEDS keep pouring the punch, the party continues, don't be late to the party though
  • edited July 2013
    Bernanke sneezed - or something to the effect - yesterday. But, let's step back a bit. At Dow 15,000, a 100-point rise is equivalent percentage-wise to about 43 points less than 5 years ago (when the average was around 6500). Not a huge swing. Bonds? Well we know where they've gone this year. Gold's bumped up, but at $1283 this morning is well below the $1600 where it sat only a year or so ago. Yes - oil's moving. Somewhat amusing listening to Mathisen on CNBC ("Can Never Be Correct") the other day, adamantly insisting "There's no oil in Egypt ..." - hence, no reason for oil prices to spike on the ongoing turmoil. ... Guess he never heard of the Suez Canal:-)

    Hear what you're saying Catch. One of those "risk-off" days where everything bounces. And, should note that the comparative market numbers I cited don't take into consideration dividends paid by equities over those 4.5 years. .... However, all-in-all, major markets seem to have been pretty mundane in recent months. and in some cases downright negative. Thanks for your late-nite update.
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @hank:
    CNBC: "Egypt is not effecting oil, there's no oil in Egypt!" "Housing is not going to be effected by interest rates!" Etc etc....

    I got cable again the other month (there was a deal, I figured I'd try it again) and regret it. 110 channels and nothin' on. CNBC has gotten SO much worse - it was always annoying, but some of the anchors who are now given a focus are freaking obnoxious.




  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @scott: "CNBC has gotten SO much worse - it was always annoying, but some of the anchors who are now given a focus are freaking obnoxious." ... The current CNBC reminds one of a stage teenagers often go through called: "In search of an identity". As you allude, little reason to keep cable anymore.
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @scott:

    No Bloomberg???

    Have CNBC here, too; but have not viewed for a few years.
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @catch22: Hi Catch. Bloomberg is fine while driving. Listen alot. I do think CNBC has superior graphics on the tube. Guess that's why it's often on in the home - volume muted 75% of the time. Occasionally tune to Bloomberg or Fox Business - again volume often muted. Some of the specials on Bloomberg are very good. Think they still feature some Charlie Rose interviews - one of the best IMHO.
  • FYI: Repeat after me ! No rate increase until 2015 which would be triggered by and unemployment rate less than 6.5% and inflation greater than 2.5%. It's time to get out of cash and into equities.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @Ted: I'd guess 2016. They'll let another administration deal with it.

    Otherwise, yeah, you can't be sitting in cash.

  • Reply to @scott: I'm listening to you and Ted and the Fed...
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @Old_Joe: i think it's not a matter of jumping full in, but scaling in reasonably. Personally, I think there's also long-term themes, including tech (especially mobile - not the handset sellers, but those who provide services), aspects of healthcare, hard assets (I am looking at some US apartment REITs) and other odds/ends.

    People need to have the exposure to the market that is right for them, but I think you can't be sitting in cash and everyone likely has something (or something/s) that they believe is a theme going forward.
  • edited July 2013
    "i think it's not a matter of jumping full in, but scaling in reasonably"

    Absolutely. Opened minimum positions in BUFBX, PRBLX, and VVPSX today, and increased position in ACMVX... will add gradually as things march on. We don't depend on the portfolio for living expenses- so inflation protection is important but not critical. We're the last fortunate generation to have defined retirement and decent SS, and we get along just fine on that income, with a bit left over. As you know, I really appreciate your insights and the help which you have cheerfully provided over the years.

    Thanks again- OJ
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @Ted: I'm up on the rooftop shouting "No rate increase!" right now. ... However, it occurs to me that a pull-back, cessation, or reversal of Fed bond buying would NOT be a rate increase. Yet, one of these could drive longer term rates higher and could slam the equity markets. Alot of the discussion here in recent days has been that the Fed doesn't really understand how their curtailment of QE will work & how it might affect the markets. In keeping with the jocular atmosphere, I've linked an old Onion satire from a few years back wherein a drunken Bernanke expresses deep misgivings about all this. There's some off-color content and language (typical of the Onion). Don't link to it if that would offend you.

    http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/
  • Reply to @Old_Joe:

    ACMVX. That's a great fund indeed.
  • Hi hank,

    You noted: " Alot of the discussion here in recent days has been that the Fed doesn't really understand how their curtailment of QE will work & how it might affect the markets."

    I do believe that Mr. Bernanke's comments from a few weeks ago; comments/words that were a bit different from previous comments got twisted around into other meanings; and that the markets along with everyone who watches received a taste of the "affect" from a FED unwind. 'Course there were numerous comments from other Fed. Reserve members to take the sting away. The sweet strawberry upon the whipped topping was from yesterday when Mr. Bernanke basically stated that one should forget about the previous comments. The new words of the week are: "Game On".

    We investors will continue to take advantage of this newest event and keep our fingers crossed that a decent exit may find its place when other economy factors are in place enough to support the easy money exit.

    Mr. Bernanke will not be at the pilot wheel of this massive money boat when a course change may be needed. I hope all here continue to be attentive to market actions; as it seems that investment periods going forward for the next several years will be as much; or more so, difficult to manage as has been in the past 5 years.

    My summary is that the Fed. and the investment world has already had a taste of "affects", and only from words; not actions. Perhaps this was only a test. This thought has passed through my brain cells more than one time.

    THIS IS ONLY A TEST

    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch

  • Reply to @Old_Joe: Let me know when you and Catch are fully scaled in so I'll have a heads up on getting out will ya please? On a side note, my Twins, our Giants, wtf?
  • Howdy Mark,

    OJ and I ? Are ya look'in towards us for a market direction clue(s)?:)

    Hell, our house can't even front-run itself regarding investments. 'Course this does not mean that our investments may indeed be a contra indicator as to where one's investments should be directed.

    Pretty scary thought, eh?

    OJ is out of town for the weekend; but will likely provide a better reply from the deepest depths of his fine wit.

    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch/Mark
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @johnN: John, you really, really need to quit listening to the pundits. They don't have anymore of a clue to where the markets are headed than anyone here on this board or elsewhere. As for being late to the party, some have missed the entire party since early 09 (or pick any date since then) because they listened to some of the more misguided and misinformed pundits.
  • Reply to @Junkster: Bingo! Tell the contestant what they've won Johnny.
  • Reply to @catch22: Granted I don't keep track of what's been going on here at MFO like I once did but it just seemed to me that you and OJ held something like 70-90% of your portfolios in bonds and cash. If you guys are backing off from that strategy and scaling back into equities.....

    FWIW I've been pretty much 85% + in equities since 2008-9. Stocks were at fire sale prices with dividends no bond fund or cash account could match or touch. I know it's not for everyone so I'm not preaching, just saying. If my SS could pay the bills I might think differently but I doubt it.
  • edited July 2013
    Hey there Mark: here's a quick profile of where we've been lately and where we're at -

    at end of 2010, spread was 9% Equity/43% Bond/48% Cash;
    changed mix and caught spring bounce in 2011...

    by July of 2011, spread was 31% Equity/33% Bond/36% Cash;
    took some profits, and avoided some of equity drawdown in last half of 2011...
    at end of 2011, spread was 24% Equity/39% Bond/38% Cash;

    caught spring bounce in 2012, then reduced exposure again...
    in July of 2012, spread was 19% Equity/33% Bond/49% Cash;
    increased equities and decreased bonds gradually through summer and fall...

    by end of 2012, spread was 32% Equity/25% Bond/43% Cash;
    in early May 2012 was 38% Equity/17% Bond/45% Cash;
    in late spring took profits and went to ground...

    and now at 17% Equity/4% Bond/79% Cash.

    Took the 8% ytd profits which were in addition to 12% from 2012 (close to 100k) in 2nd qtr. (That's 8 & 12% of the equity/bond "money at risk", not including the cash component.) Not too bad when bank savings rates are non-existent. No need to be greedy- that will cover most of the current house remodel. Remember that I'm talking an older investor here- wouldn't necessarily recommend this for younger folks. If I miss some of the froth this year that's OK- I'm sleeping really well. Also, we are not using income from the investment side for any living expenses- we get along fine on SS and pensions- so our requirements are probably not typical. As long as I can keep the investment pile growing better than inflation I'm happy.

    II don't think that the equity side is terribly overpriced right now... if you factor in inflation it's kinda high but not really all that bad. I'm more worried about the Fed trying to unravel itself from the marketplace simultaneously with the change in Fed leadership coming up and the necessity to get that through our mentally unstable senate, to say nothing of the unpredictable reactions of this schizo market. Once I get a feel for the Fed situation I'll be easing back in.

    Made decent money in bonds overall- started scaling down in middle of last year and got the rest out just in time. Have been pretty lucky in past couple of years avoiding equity downdrafts, but that was more luck than skill I'm sure.

    Feel free to use me as a contrarian indicator. If I wuz you, that's probably what I'd do too.:-)
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