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Cef's don't get to have all the fun; some etf discounts are really piling up. The biggest EM debt etf's (EMB and PCY) are at 5% discounts ... enormous price drops today, only very small drops in NAV so far, as reflected in the IIVs.
I find it rather interesting that crude is now well into the green, holding at $95. Additionally, CNBC of course continues to tell people to stay out of what has done the worst during this period and buy what has held up better.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: Couple sectors did try and make comeback but drifted south at end. Also, KOL -4%, AAPL @$400 again, CLF and BTU -7.5%. Another distribution day for SPY and especially BOND...down heavy on three times normal volume.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: Have been buying and will continue to buy bit-by-bit, focusing on things that are down much more significantly than overall market.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: Good luck. I bailed from a small stake in OPGSX in March when it was "only" down 34% YTD. ... Now it's off over 50%. (Who says you can't time markets?:-) ... From this humble perspective: It amounts to a roll of the dice - could go anywhere. There are of course some very knowledgeable investors who still like it - and have their reasons.
Reply to @bee: Wonderful Interview. Better than the Daily Show. He puts Bernanke in his (inconsequential) place. A mild dig at Birinyi. His calls? Stocks - I'm not sure if I agree. ... Bonds - I think he's right near term (next few months). ... Gold - He's bullish to a point ... but seems to hedge a lot. I get the sense he views it more as a life preserver in case things really go south.
PS: Faber's take on Bernanke (Courtesy Stephen Crane)
A man said to the universe: “Sir, I exist!" “However,” replied the universe, “The fact has not created in me “A sense of obligation.”
Reply to @hank: There are so many classic Faber quotes. My favorite is from an interview on CNBC where they asked him how he would advise someone to allocate their money. His response (which is only funnier with that accent and Faber's delivery): "Well, it depends on how many girlfriends you have."
I think you're going to see a bunch less commodity companies across the board in a few years. Some will go by the wayside but I think there's going to be a lot of consolidation as larger players buy smaller outfits with great assets that have run into trouble with recent price declines.
Those with a long-term view can buy BHP about 50% off the 2011 high and collect a nearly 4% yield. Elsewhere in energy, Concophillips is trading at about 1.4x book with a 4.5% yield and Shell is trading at about 1.1x w/5.7% yield.
Glencore is reportedly in line to buy assets of billionaire Eike Batista, who has seen his holdings in commodity companies fall something like 80-90%. (He was the 8th richest person in the world.)
Reply to @Charles: Yeah, I saw that this AM. His biography ("King of Oil") is a wildly interesting read. It's wildly volatile and hasn't done well like other similar stocks (BHP, etc), but I am buying more Glencore (or now Glencore Xstrata, "Glenstrata") here, trading below book.
From the article: "Rich still keeps offices in Zug. "It's eerie," says a financial executive who recently paid a call. "You go up in an elevator and step into a vestibule where you're asked over an intercom if you have an appointment and whom you're there to see. If you're on the list, a security guard opens a door to another room. There you see a receptionist who scrutinizes you. Then you're escorted into another elevator that takes you to a different floor."
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: China isn't a non-issue I think but I think it's a matter of those who have a long-term view on China and Asia in general have to continue to have a long-term view. I don't think there aren't definite issues in China and that there will be more instances of officials trying to calm markets and then finding something else is the case. On the flip side, you have CNBC acting like people should not go anywhere near emerging markets. If you believe that China will successfully transition to more of a consumption economy (and that even in the best case scenario is going to be bumpy), then you have to look at something like ECON.
Like everything else these days in financial media, "CHINA IS OVER! SELL EVERYTHING IN CHINA! GET OUT OF EMERGING MARKETS!" Dividend plays good! Dividend plays bad! I haven't watched CNBC in a year or so before watching it again consistently more recently and it seems like this (telling viewers to not go to anything aside from what is working this very second) has gotten much worse.
Everything is so black/white. I'll continue to add to things like FEO and other EM plays.
Reply to @scott: You are quite focused on EM, Scott! I agree China isn't really a non-issue and the uptick in volatility will mean more rollercoaster sessions to come.
What strikes me is how many investors bailed this week(both debt and equity), but how little damage (in % terms) all of that selling seemed to do. Obviously, some sectors have done a lot better than others, but still.....
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: I was VERY heavily EM in 2009/early 2010, then broadened and became much more globally diversified. Given what has happened in EM lately, adding to EM has moved towards the top of the shopping list again. I have had some very long-term holdings in EM (Jardine Matheson being the biggest example) that continue to stick around and dividends continue to be reinvested. Ambev is a recent addition and I'm looking for other names for longer-term holdings.
Some sectors definitely have not done well and were down substantially more than the overall market (although they've bounced in the last couple days.)
I'm actually kinda pondering Apple if it heads further down towards the mid-$300's.
Reply to @scott: I'm watching overseas markets, and you can really get country-specific now like never before. Egypt "EGPT" or the Philippines "EPHE" or delve into the Middle East "GULF", etc, etc.
But I still think back to the old saying about overseas markets......... "When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold". Now we are not the behemoth we once were - and you wonder if China has taken our place in that phrase.
Comments
Sector - Change
Energy -1.61%
Basic Materials -2.45%
Industrials -1.57%
Cyclical Cons. Goods -1.11%
Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods -0.69%
Financials -1.55%
Healthcare -0.84%
Technology -1.48%
Telecommunications Svcs -1.41%
Utilities -0.51%
Have a nice day, Derf
I'm voting for "a good day to sell". China scares me.
I keep having to remind myself that gold miners are not really cheap yet if gold prices continues to slide.
Marc Faber chimes in on gold and gold miners:
bloomberg.com/video/faber-s-p-500-could-fall-20-to-30-Uc6pRO8eRhKflaO99fyqQQ.html
PS: Faber's take on Bernanke (Courtesy Stephen Crane)
A man said to the universe:
“Sir, I exist!"
“However,” replied the universe,
“The fact has not created in me
“A sense of obligation.”
I think you're going to see a bunch less commodity companies across the board in a few years. Some will go by the wayside but I think there's going to be a lot of consolidation as larger players buy smaller outfits with great assets that have run into trouble with recent price declines.
Those with a long-term view can buy BHP about 50% off the 2011 high and collect a nearly 4% yield. Elsewhere in energy, Concophillips is trading at about 1.4x book with a 4.5% yield and Shell is trading at about 1.1x w/5.7% yield.
Glencore is reportedly in line to buy assets of billionaire Eike Batista, who has seen his holdings in commodity companies fall something like 80-90%. (He was the 8th richest person in the world.)
http://www.forbes.com/sites/andersonantunes/2013/06/23/brazilian-billionaire-eike-batistas-x-problems-keep-getting-worse/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-25/twitter-bites-back-batista-in-82-share-plunge-corporate-brazil.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/25/us-brazil-batista-analysis-idUSBRE95O1BI20130625
How debt woes brought Batista's Brazil empire to the brink
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100844852
I'll highly recommend this article from 2005 Businessweek, "The Rich Boys", which is essentially more or less a summary: http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2005-07-17/the-rich-boys
From the article: "Rich still keeps offices in Zug. "It's eerie," says a financial executive who recently paid a call. "You go up in an elevator and step into a vestibule where you're asked over an intercom if you have an appointment and whom you're there to see. If you're on the list, a security guard opens a door to another room. There you see a receptionist who scrutinizes you. Then you're escorted into another elevator that takes you to a different floor."
Suddenly China is a non-issue.
All is well.
Like everything else these days in financial media, "CHINA IS OVER! SELL EVERYTHING IN CHINA! GET OUT OF EMERGING MARKETS!" Dividend plays good! Dividend plays bad! I haven't watched CNBC in a year or so before watching it again consistently more recently and it seems like this (telling viewers to not go to anything aside from what is working this very second) has gotten much worse.
Everything is so black/white. I'll continue to add to things like FEO and other EM plays.
What strikes me is how many investors bailed this week(both debt and equity), but how little damage (in % terms) all of that selling seemed to do. Obviously, some sectors have done a lot better than others, but still.....
Some sectors definitely have not done well and were down substantially more than the overall market (although they've bounced in the last couple days.)
I'm actually kinda pondering Apple if it heads further down towards the mid-$300's.
But I still think back to the old saying about overseas markets......... "When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold". Now we are not the behemoth we once were - and you wonder if China has taken our place in that phrase.