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Anyone nibbling on RE, EM, or PM funds as the trading day ends?
I repositoned some previous profits (cash) into four funds today buying some PETDX, VGPMX, VWO, and USAGX. These funds were pretty banged up even before today.
Reply to @Old_Joe: Yes, a bit of a gamble, but I got tired of saying to myself...
"Don't just do something... stand there!".
So PETDX, which recently has been hurt by a lack of inflation (with respect to its Real Return strategy) may be a beneficiary of rising interest rates. I kinda think rising interest rate early in the process will goose Real Estate and other large ticket consumer items in the short term.
"I better buy that house now 'cause rates will only go higher from here" mentality if you will.
In my simple mind, I see some short term consumer demand being created as consumers pull the trigger on loans for cars and homes that they previously held back on thinking rates were going lower.
Reply to @bee: I think that scenario would benefit HD, LOW (although maybe those have gotten ahead of themselves already, given the discussion of housing) and maybe the homebuilders to some degree (although a number of homebuilders had enormous losses today - some homebuilders down 9-10%.) Rising rates in a gradual manner would likely be more easily tolerated. Rates continuing to move at the rate they are is not, and real estate stocks continue to not do well.
I think this is an opportunity in regards to the strongest RE names for those with a moderately long-term horizon (and one can get paid to wait.)
Given that the move in housing has been due in a large part to cash buyers an investors both large (Blackstone) and small (plenty of reports of "house flippers" again), I'm not sure how much of a move you're going to see by those seeking a mortgage. I'm also wondering if rates moving in this manner will make banks even more reluctant in regards to mortgages.
Those who can (buy) probably should and will given what rates may (or may not?) do. However, I just question the size of that crowd.
The other thing that I think is concerning is the move in some Asian banks - DBS Group and United Overseas Bank (both Singapore-listed) ADR shares down 6.2% and 5.3% today. Just my opinion.
Reply to @bee: Nothing "simple" about your mind, and I hope that you didn't take it that way. You could very well be right, but I got out of a small position in PETDX about three weeks ago because of the stomach-churning volatility. Good luck... I know what you mean about a gamble... sometimes it's just interesting to see what happens!
You are all a bit too sophisticated for me. In the past weeks/months, based on comments here, bought a bit of MFLDX and WBLRX (but this seems like the ideal day for a positive return for a L/S fund, and Whitebox wasn't positive, which I'd hoped for at that cost.)
The question (beg) is what Fido funds you might buy over the next few weeks. I sent most of my New Markets Income to cash lately, and so have some of the readies, but I can't help thinking that the next decades still favor the EM. My monthly 403b deposits flow into Fido without predetermined destinations. All advice considered thoughtfully. Must admit that today delayed my retirement several more months.
Reply to @STB65: Some would say its foolish to focus on the short-term, but I like the idea of sitting in RPHYX (NTF at Fido) while markets correct and China waivers. You already have some long/short allocations. I'd cost average into EM very slowly.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: Interesting choice - the one that I'm also looking at in Brazil in terms of utilities is SBS. Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo-SABESP. Down about 40% from 52 wk high.
Elsewhere, I am kinda considering Russia's Gazprom, which is now at 2008 lows about.
(Is Rosneft gaining an advantage vs. Gazprom?) Tid-bit: "The deal between Novatek, Russia’s second-largest gas producer, and CNPC shows Russia’s willingness to end OAO Gazprom (GAZP)’s monopoly on gas exports in a quest to open markets in Asia. Gazprom has been negotiating to export gas to China for more than a decade without reaching an agreement." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-21/russia-hastens-china-energy-pivot-with-crude-lng-supply-deals.html
Comments
Yes, a bit of a gamble, but I got tired of saying to myself...
"Don't just do something... stand there!".
So PETDX, which recently has been hurt by a lack of inflation (with respect to its Real Return strategy) may be a beneficiary of rising interest rates. I kinda think rising interest rate early in the process will goose Real Estate and other large ticket consumer items in the short term.
"I better buy that house now 'cause rates will only go higher from here" mentality if you will.
In my simple mind, I see some short term consumer demand being created as consumers pull the trigger on loans for cars and homes that they previously held back on thinking rates were going lower.
I think this is an opportunity in regards to the strongest RE names for those with a moderately long-term horizon (and one can get paid to wait.)
Given that the move in housing has been due in a large part to cash buyers an investors both large (Blackstone) and small (plenty of reports of "house flippers" again), I'm not sure how much of a move you're going to see by those seeking a mortgage. I'm also wondering if rates moving in this manner will make banks even more reluctant in regards to mortgages.
Mortgages vs home sales:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/06/20130605_MBA1.jpg
Those who can (buy) probably should and will given what rates may (or may not?) do. However, I just question the size of that crowd.
The other thing that I think is concerning is the move in some Asian banks - DBS Group and United Overseas Bank (both Singapore-listed) ADR shares down 6.2% and 5.3% today.
Just my opinion.
I did some nibbling as well - initiated WBLRX and added a sliver to MFLDX.
Not ready for EM, RE or PM yet. USAGX lost over (8%) today alone! Would really need all out "blood in the streets" before I'd go there.
In the past weeks/months, based on comments here, bought a bit of MFLDX and WBLRX (but this seems like the ideal day for a positive return for a L/S fund, and Whitebox wasn't positive, which I'd hoped for at that cost.)
The question (beg) is what Fido funds you might buy over the next few weeks. I sent most of my New Markets Income to cash lately, and so have some of the readies, but I can't help thinking that the next decades still favor the EM. My monthly 403b deposits flow into Fido without predetermined destinations.
All advice considered thoughtfully. Must admit that today delayed my retirement several more months.
Elsewhere, I am kinda considering Russia's Gazprom, which is now at 2008 lows about.