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Now to await the pending late night storms that are now into the west side of the state of Michigan. I do believe I will be awakened by the noise before 1 a.m.
All "dips" are relative. ... From its March 6, 2009 intra-day low of 6,443.27 the Dow is up about 130%. A number of world markets have experienced bigger pops. I've raised substantial cash this year. Not ready to part with any yet. Would start nibbling after another 5-7% drop - which corresponds to about 1000 points on the Dow.
Probably should note here that many "experts" - including John Bogle and Alan Greenspan - insist U.S. equity markets in general are about fairly valued - not bubbly. We could probably flood the board with prognosticators on both sides of that question if we wanted to. ... Still don't know. ... Cash looked mighty fine today.
If you're underweighted commodities, you might want to get back to a normal weighting - they've been beaten up pretty good lately and unless he world ends, there's gona be demand for copper, lumber, energy and fertilizer. And, in a similar vein, good quality international bonds should rebound next year - as currency fluctuations tend to go in cycles. (EM's are a riskier proposition).
Reply to @Old_Joe: (-: Cool. Nice that you agree - except we all have somewhat different takes. (delete) ... If that ain't enough, David's source (from SMVLX) expects a "commodities implosion." - Wonder if that's what Catch is hearing outside?
Dunno- I really miss Catch's input, that's for sure. Buying opportunities may very well be in the offing, but I'm thinking that it might be prudent to just sit back and watch for a while to see which way this animal wants to head.
Reply to @catch22: That is for sure... In the current low interest environment, there is very little opportunity cost for being in cash. At the present there are few place to hid and the summer months will be interesting to say the least.
(No, I've not bought yet. July. Or later. I'm waiting for a day that's been coming for 10 years, since I first invested in that particular bond, coming due very soon, on Canada Day, as a matter of fact. Impossible now to find a 5.68% interest rate anywhere, for a single individual retail investor. They'd have loved to let me re-invest it, but... NO. So we'll see if everything is still falling and falling. I'm no Market-timer, but if things are still headed south, there's no hurry to deploy that "new" money. Those funds I listed above are on my short list.)
I've added a bit recently (and as of a couple of days ago am lightly hedged), but will wait a bit to see if dust settles a bit more clearly before buying any more. Will largely be continuing to look to add to single names that I view as long-term holds, most of which offer nice dividends. Some offer not as much of a dividend but feel strongly about the theme (an example being Ingenico.) There are one or two (or three) new names that I may add if things drop further, but otherwise will primarily add to/the priority is current names. The move in EM has lead to me focusing more there for additions. Will continue to reinvest divs.
For me the dip is up to 5% off the recent high. On the S&P 500 Index lets call the recent high 1685 and the 1600 mark, which is 5% off the recent high, the bottom of the dip and the mark at which I will begin to buy to round out some current equity positions. Should the Index continue to fall and the dip becomes a pull back (more than 5% off its recent high) and has reached a decine to about 1560 (7.5% off its recent high) I will be thinking hard about starting to raise my equity allocation form the low 40% range upward. In baby steps of course, much like I did in my systematic sell process that began at the first of the year from the Index's 1426 mark. However, this will be a sysematic buy in process and as the Index drops I'll do a little buying at certain marks on its retreat. Like wise, when the Index has climed back to a certain mark I'll start another systematic sell down process to reduce my allocation to equities as it continues an advance (a buy low/sell high theme).
As far as my income funds, the only income funds that I currently hold are three short duration bond funds, two multi sector income funds (thinking of adding a third) and seven hybrid income funds which are mostly conservative allocation funds that are paying out a good yield in the five percent range, or better. I have already let some higher duration income funds go and trimmed back to the above holdings. Naturally, I value, respect and plan to protect my principal so more trimming can occur if I feel warranted.
Just for the record, I'm not buying anything right now. My bond funds mostly "failed" to stay positive this month no matter what the duration (DLTNX, MWCRX, PUBDX, ASHDX, etc.) and I will not be a buyer going forward. RPHYX & SUBYX were the best of the bunch.
I'm hoping for a drop in equities, just like a lot of others sitting on the sidelines. For some reason, I have it stuck in my head that MINDX is my next wildcard purchase (but only when the sh*t REALLY hits the fan).
Sold PONDX & TGINX yesterday. Today sold some VWIAX & bought PNRZX & FGADX with proceeds from VWIAX. All dealing were with 1 % or less of total portfolio. Good investing, Derf
On Tuesday further increased equity exposure to hated sectors...basic materials and energy, plus added financials, global: BCS, RBS, ORI, CRH, SU, STLD.
RBS was negatively in news late yesterday with CEO's departure, but price recovering today. This bank was another left for dead five years ago, government bailout, but finally made money again this year. Lot of speculation going forward.
Also yesterday I had to exit BTU, unfortunately. Hated to do but crossed my draw down threshold. After nice bump a couple weeks ago during BRK's acquisition, it has been in free-fall. Will look for opportunity to get back in. Steel mills, power plants use a lot of coal...if recovery continues, sooner or later so will BTU.
I'm still seeing positive news on economy, so inclined to keep pressing. And, SP500 still above 10 mo SMA. Pretty much out of bonds altogether, except some exposure through couple allocation funds.
Reply to @Charles: If you have an interest in coal, Kinder Morgan is starting a small business owning and leasing coal and other nat resource properties. KMI and KMP/KMR are selling off today due to a spill in one of the pipelines. The leasing biz would not be a major segment, but I think it's interesting. I don't know how well coal will do in this country with regulations, but I do think there will continue to be demand elsewhere in the world. If you want a materials name that's been obliterated, I'd look at VALE, which has done horrendously due to commodity price issues (iron ore) and Brazil issues. Vale is a couple of bucks above 2009 lows.
Both offer nice dividend yields, although I'd be a little concerned about VALE's ability to continue to pay it if things don't turn around. KMP generates a K-1 at tax time.
I don't own Vale, but I continue to really like Kinder Morgan and consider it a very long term holding.
As for materials, I continue to own Glencore, which continues to do terribly, but I continue to like it as a long-term holding.
I have my Income Area of my portfolio divided into two sleeves, an Income Sleeve which is about 25% of the Income Area and a Hybrid Income Sleeve which is about 75% of the Income Area.
In the Income Sleeve I own the following funds … (Short Duration) THIFX, LALDX, ITAAX, (Multi Sector Income) NEFZX, LBNDX and I have under review for possible purchase TSIAX & EVBAX.
In my Hybrid Income Sleeve I own the following funds … (Conversative Allocation) CAPAX, FKINX, ISFAX, PASAX, PGBAX, NWQAX and (Moderate Allocation) AZNAX.
Hi again Scott. Yes, I thought of you when hunting for industrial materials and infrastructure stocks recently. KMP was on list...the stock that always goes up! EV/EBITDA seemed a little high though and I'm probably a bit intimidated with all the various manifestations of KM. VALE was on list too and it does appear to be better value, but momentum not there...of course, it popped today 5% on strong volume. I have been interested in Canada's POT for a while, but it still seems a bit pricey. In any case, all remain on list for next buy opportunity. Very much appreciate your guidance, as always. Hope all is well.
Yesterday I gave DoubleLine a chunk of $ I'd reclaimed from Pimco earlier, and bought a little BAB as a baby step anticipating an eventual, temporary, long-rate fall. Still have a lot of cash.
Have eyes on a couple of CEFs, but as a poster on M* mentioned, many are not out of their declining channels even with the gains of the last two days, so there's really no reason yet to be reasonably sure that it's more than a small bounce within a continuing downtrend.
Had been thinking of PDI, but decided to just leave my 15% in PIMIX with Ivascyn. The Bill Gross CEFs and DoubleLine's new multisector CEF DSL are on the watchlist. Staying the course with equities at this point.
Waiting for availability of the KraneShares.Expertice?
Newcomer to the U.S. ETF market, KraneShares is looking for another outlet for its Chinese investment expertise through two new funds. CSI 300 China A Share ETF and MSCIA China A Share ETF: Using two different indexes, these two new funds both seek expsosure to the China A Shares market – funds from mainland China that trade on the Shezhan or Shanghai stock exchanges. These shares paint a more realistic picture of the emerging Chinese economy by avoiding the over crowded and developed Hong Kong market space. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/arrowshares-plans-actively-managed-funds-110043464.html
Reply to @scott: Yes, NLY had nice day yesterday. As did CLF. I exited both after early bounce. BTU and CLF continue to be hammered today though:
2:19 PM Coal stocks (KOL -2.8%) are sliding with the latest statistics from China showing steel production trends declined in late May. Another data point this week: U.S. coal shipments fell 31% M/M in April with high production costs and oversupply in Asia for met coal driving the decline. BTU -4.3%, ACI -6.4%, ANR -4.8%, CNX -2.8%, CLF -4.7%, YZC -4.8%, WLT -17.3% (also).
Here's BTU against 10-mo SMA...will wait for descent to stop and it to gain some momentum before getting back in. Ditto with CLF.
Currently, stocks I'm holding...
Materials: AA, CRH, STLD, X Energy: COP, SU Financials: BAC, BCS, BRK.B, ORI, RBS Industrials: GE
Reply to @Charles: This as well. WLT, BTU 1:34 PM Walter Energy (WLT -12.8%) dives after Forbes reports the company withdrew a proposed $1.55B debt refinancing offer due to "market conditions." Other coal stocks are also off: BTU -4.5%. ACI -7.1%. CLF -3.5%. ANR -5.1%. OXF -3.1%. JRCC -3.3%. CLD -4.1%. [Energy, On the Move] 7 Comments
NYSE stocks posting largest volume increases Top 10 New York Stock Exchange-traded stocks posting largest volume increases Associated PressAssociated Press – Fri, Jun 21, 2013
Kinder Morgan Management LLC : Approximately 5,733,200 shares changed hands, a 1,265.1 percent increase over its 65-day average volume. The shares rose $1.02 or 1.3 percent to $78.46.
Comments
MAPOX Mairs & Power Balanced
TRAMX TRP Africa/Middle East. (I note some ME countries have been upgraded: Qatar, UAE.)
I feel assured "this dip" will stay in place for Asia and move with the market clocks as the sun rises on new ground, June 13.
Asia
Cash may be the king right about now, eh?
Now to await the pending late night storms that are now into the west side of the state of Michigan. I do believe I will be awakened by the noise before 1 a.m.
Probably should note here that many "experts" - including John Bogle and Alan Greenspan - insist U.S. equity markets in general are about fairly valued - not bubbly. We could probably flood the board with prognosticators on both sides of that question if we wanted to. ... Still don't know. ... Cash looked mighty fine today.
If you're underweighted commodities, you might want to get back to a normal weighting - they've been beaten up pretty good lately and unless he world ends, there's gona be demand for copper, lumber, energy and fertilizer. And, in a similar vein, good quality international bonds should rebound next year - as currency fluctuations tend to go in cycles. (EM's are a riskier proposition).
For me the dip is up to 5% off the recent high. On the S&P 500 Index lets call the recent high 1685 and the 1600 mark, which is 5% off the recent high, the bottom of the dip and the mark at which I will begin to buy to round out some current equity positions. Should the Index continue to fall and the dip becomes a pull back (more than 5% off its recent high) and has reached a decine to about 1560 (7.5% off its recent high) I will be thinking hard about starting to raise my equity allocation form the low 40% range upward. In baby steps of course, much like I did in my systematic sell process that began at the first of the year from the Index's 1426 mark. However, this will be a sysematic buy in process and as the Index drops I'll do a little buying at certain marks on its retreat. Like wise, when the Index has climed back to a certain mark I'll start another systematic sell down process to reduce my allocation to equities as it continues an advance (a buy low/sell high theme).
As far as my income funds, the only income funds that I currently hold are three short duration bond funds, two multi sector income funds (thinking of adding a third) and seven hybrid income funds which are mostly conservative allocation funds that are paying out a good yield in the five percent range, or better. I have already let some higher duration income funds go and trimmed back to the above holdings. Naturally, I value, respect and plan to protect my principal so more trimming can occur if I feel warranted.
Stay tuned for my updates.
Good Investing,
Skeeter
My bad.
I'm hoping for a drop in equities, just like a lot of others sitting on the sidelines. For some reason, I have it stuck in my head that MINDX is my next wildcard purchase (but only when the sh*t REALLY hits the fan).
Today sold some VWIAX & bought PNRZX & FGADX with proceeds from VWIAX. All dealing were with 1 % or less of total portfolio.
Good investing, Derf
RBS was negatively in news late yesterday with CEO's departure, but price recovering today. This bank was another left for dead five years ago, government bailout, but finally made money again this year. Lot of speculation going forward.
Also yesterday I had to exit BTU, unfortunately. Hated to do but crossed my draw down threshold. After nice bump a couple weeks ago during BRK's acquisition, it has been in free-fall. Will look for opportunity to get back in. Steel mills, power plants use a lot of coal...if recovery continues, sooner or later so will BTU.
I'm still seeing positive news on economy, so inclined to keep pressing. And, SP500 still above 10 mo SMA. Pretty much out of bonds altogether, except some exposure through couple allocation funds.
Both offer nice dividend yields, although I'd be a little concerned about VALE's ability to continue to pay it if things don't turn around. KMP generates a K-1 at tax time.
I don't own Vale, but I continue to really like Kinder Morgan and consider it a very long term holding.
As for materials, I continue to own Glencore, which continues to do terribly, but I continue to like it as a long-term holding.
Potash (POT) is another thing I've pondered.
Hi Soupkitchen,
Thank you for your inquiry.
I have my Income Area of my portfolio divided into two sleeves, an Income Sleeve which is about 25% of the Income Area and a Hybrid Income Sleeve which is about 75% of the Income Area.
In the Income Sleeve I own the following funds … (Short Duration) THIFX, LALDX, ITAAX, (Multi Sector Income) NEFZX, LBNDX and I have under review for possible purchase TSIAX & EVBAX.
In my Hybrid Income Sleeve I own the following funds … (Conversative Allocation) CAPAX, FKINX, ISFAX, PASAX, PGBAX, NWQAX and (Moderate Allocation) AZNAX.
I hope this information is helpful.
Skeeter
Have eyes on a couple of CEFs, but as a poster on M* mentioned, many are not out of their declining channels even with the gains of the last two days, so there's really no reason yet to be reasonably sure that it's more than a small bounce within a continuing downtrend.
Had been thinking of PDI, but decided to just leave my 15% in PIMIX with Ivascyn. The Bill Gross CEFs and DoubleLine's new multisector CEF DSL are on the watchlist. Staying the course with equities at this point.
Newcomer to the U.S. ETF market, KraneShares is looking for another outlet for its Chinese investment expertise through two new funds.
CSI 300 China A Share ETF and MSCIA China A Share ETF: Using two different indexes, these two new funds both seek expsosure to the China A Shares market – funds from mainland China that trade on the Shezhan or Shanghai stock exchanges. These shares paint a more realistic picture of the emerging Chinese economy by avoiding the over crowded and developed Hong Kong market space.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/arrowshares-plans-actively-managed-funds-110043464.html
Currently, stocks I'm holding...
Materials: AA, CRH, STLD, X
Energy: COP, SU
Financials: BAC, BCS, BRK.B, ORI, RBS
Industrials: GE
NYSE stocks posting largest volume increases
Top 10 New York Stock Exchange-traded stocks posting largest volume increases
Associated PressAssociated Press – Fri, Jun 21, 2013
Kinder Morgan Management LLC : Approximately 5,733,200 shares changed hands, a 1,265.1 percent increase over its 65-day average volume. The shares rose $1.02 or 1.3 percent to $78.46.