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fed shutdown? mr.mkt doesnt care


possibly obsolete any second, the market is shaking this off just as all other economic impactful events, past and probabilistic.

i recall? last trump shutdown was an attempt to prevent maga grift (border wall despite mexico funded!), so past is prologue.
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Comments

  • Mr market doesn’t seem to care about ANYTHING. When will Mr. Market wake up to amerikas reality? Slowly then all at once.
  • edited September 30
    Some would say why worry?
    After all, the S&P 500 was up today!
    No problems whatsoever...
  • Well, surely FD (Full Denial) 1k would buy that.
  • Another great day for our country. The military is told to prepare for domestic operations , the government is shutting down but my money grew. BS 208.
  • As in 18 U.S. Code § 208 ?
  • "18 U.S. Code § 208" They would love to get rid of that!

    18 U.S. Code § 208 prohibits government employees from participating in matters where they have a financial interest, unless they disclose and receive written ...
  • edited September 30
    The passive bid is overwhelming. Bill Fleckenstein sometimes calls it “the tractor beam in operation.” Not sure what that means. But funny. From my perspective that makes it hard to really get a grip on reality (reasonable valuation).

    And also - the leverage in use, including 2X and 3X ETFs. What could go wrong?

    I believe the comment referenced by Larry was that the military should “begin practicing” in some of our major cities. (Not that it makes much difference.) I think Grand Blanc might be a good place to start.
  • “the tractor beam in operation.”   "really get a grip on"
    Well, that's what tractor beams will do...
    cf: Star Trek
  • I'll never understand what propels these markets at times like these - is it:

    1) Algos/computers
    2) Buyers outnumbering sellers
    3) Some mad scientist behind a red velvet curtain, pulling levers.

    It feels a bit surreal at this point. Nothing seems to derail this Bull market. At some point it will flip, but that could a week from now or that could be a year away.


    Here is an oddity during strange times - John Hussman's funds are all up this year, and NICELY:

    Returns - YTD as of Sept 29
    Hussman Strategic Allocation (HSAFX) + 8.48%
    Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund (HSGFX) +10.58%
    Hussman Strategic Total Return (HSTRX) +18.62%

    Yep, strange times.

    I see that analysts are forecasting a swell year ahead for earnings, but I thought that corporate visibility was limited due to tariffs. Did that clear up?
  • edited September 30
    Thanks for clearing that up @Old_Joe. I had no idea it was out of Star Trek.
  • edited October 1
    Senate left for the night. That guarantees a government shutdown tomorrow.
    https://nbcnews.com/politics/congress/government-shutdown-deadline-democrats-republicans-trump-blame-rcna234516

    Labor data will be available on Friday. Will the market behave differently this time?

    Correction: BLS office is closed due to government shutdown. No labor data will be reported. While some services remain operational, some will not be available. TSA may be short handed so plan accordingly. Here is a list of what services that will be impacted.
    https://nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/government-shutdown-what-happens-opened-closed-departments/3831580/
  • SSA was also stopping paper checks on 9/30/25 & people cannot call SSA due to DC shutdown if they didn't switch to direct deposit or ran into problems. I read that electronic payments should continue as normal.

    There will be no jobs report this Friday - BLS will be closed too.
  • He will do ANYTHING to divert from the Epstein files. Shutting down the government is just another diversion.
  • edited October 1
    From The Independent Vanguard Adviser newsletter:

    "The U.S. government has shut down 20 times since the mid-1970s, according to data from the
    House of Representatives. The S&P 500 averaged a microscopic 0.04% gain during those closures.
    However, if we exclude one outlier—the 10% return during the 2018–2019 shutdown—the S&P 500’s
    average return falls from 0.04% to -0.49%. In other words, the market sometimes dipped, sometimes rose,
    but it never cratered. In fact, stocks gained ground during half of all prior government shutdowns."


    image
  • edited October 1
    I feel that the above chart may be the very definition of the phrase "correlation is not causation". That the circumstances of this markets momentum need to be taken into consideration. Is it an AI bubble, or something else?

    At these market levels and valuations, I think this lack of concern might be endemic of the irrational exuberance that can mark the FOMO which might be driving the market, despite many warning signs.

    Maybe this is one of those times when "don't fight the FED" fails to properly capture the entirety of the situation?

  • a2z
    edited October 1
    IVA chart indicates a single\familiar event of variable duration is meaningless.

    as long as employment is high, there is a massive base flow into retirement american index stocks, and it will take a confluence of durable events to change sentiment.
    but economics eventually does change it.
  • larryB said:

    Mr market doesn’t seem to care about ANYTHING. When will Mr. Market wake up to amerikas reality? Slowly then all at once.

    Bingo! Spot-on.
  • Just want to mention: Wed Oct 1st, '25 p.m. SWVXX yield = 3.98%. I'll tough it out here, growing some short-term money for next year's fancy trip. I guess I won't miss the difference between 3.98% and 4.00%. Yes, it could slide further down.
  • Some people want markets to collapse, others know how markets work and don't complain endlessly.
  • Some know when markets have gotten ahead of themselves.
  • edited October 1
    When I talk to a cult member I always repeat what their leader said: Trump said on video: "smart people don't like me". If they don't understand what that means, they won't understand a logical argument.
  • Lemme see here... maybe I can work my way through on this.

    OK, If smart people don't like Trump, then... oh,I get it! Then people who are stupid would like Trump.

    That's pretty cool, because not too many of us here at MFO like Trump.

    Lessee now... who here actually likes Trump?

    Oh my goodness... that would have to be... yes !  FullyDuped 1000 !

    See, I are pretty smart.
  • edited 11:36AM
    Donkey says, "If you see a problem, you must want that problem".

    Donkey likes trump.
  • edited 12:57PM
    I wonder the extent to which Artificial Intelligence is keeping this turkey afloat? Anybody here using AI to pick storks or funds?

    Forbes explains how AI can help you pick winners.
  • edited 2:19PM
    I wouldn't rely primarily on current AI technology to pick stocks or funds.
    I was playing around with Perplexity the other day to assess some mutual funds.
    My queries were detailed and specific but Perplexity returned results outside of the parameters provided.
    In several instances, clearly erroneous answers were generated.
  • That's pretty interesting. Looking ahead, let's propose that the bugs get worked out of AI, and a basically reliable information source becomes widely available to almost anyone. What sort of impact would that have on financial markets?
  • edited 3:27PM
    @Old_Joe What would seem like a basically reliable amount of information,99.9%?

    Added: I just ask google what % of AI would be 100% accurate. Very interest answer.

    Suggest you check it out at Google.
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