Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Another great day for our country. The military is told to prepare for domestic operations , the government is shutting down but my money grew. BS 208.
"18 U.S. Code § 208" They would love to get rid of that!
18 U.S. Code § 208 prohibits government employees from participating in matters where they have a financial interest, unless they disclose and receive written ...
The passive bid is overwhelming. Bill Fleckenstein sometimes calls it “the tractor beam in operation.” Not sure what that means. But funny. From my perspective that makes it hard to really get a grip on reality (reasonable valuation).
And also - the leverage in use, including 2X and 3X ETFs. What could go wrong?
I believe the comment referenced by Larry was that the military should “begin practicing” in some of our major cities. (Not that it makes much difference.) I think Grand Blanc might be a good place to start.
I'll never understand what propels these markets at times like these - is it:
1) Algos/computers 2) Buyers outnumbering sellers 3) Some mad scientist behind a red velvet curtain, pulling levers.
It feels a bit surreal at this point. Nothing seems to derail this Bull market. At some point it will flip, but that could a week from now or that could be a year away.
Here is an oddity during strange times - John Hussman's funds are all up this year, and NICELY:
Returns - YTD as of Sept 29 Hussman Strategic Allocation (HSAFX) + 8.48% Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund (HSGFX) +10.58% Hussman Strategic Total Return (HSTRX) +18.62%
Yep, strange times.
I see that analysts are forecasting a swell year ahead for earnings, but I thought that corporate visibility was limited due to tariffs. Did that clear up?
SSA was also stopping paper checks on 9/30/25 & people cannot call SSA due to DC shutdown if they didn't switch to direct deposit or ran into problems. I read that electronic payments should continue as normal.
There will be no jobs report this Friday - BLS will be closed too.
"The U.S. government has shut down 20 times since the mid-1970s, according to data from the House of Representatives. The S&P 500 averaged a microscopic 0.04% gain during those closures. However, if we exclude one outlier—the 10% return during the 2018–2019 shutdown—the S&P 500’s average return falls from 0.04% to -0.49%. In other words, the market sometimes dipped, sometimes rose, but it never cratered. In fact, stocks gained ground during half of all prior government shutdowns."
I feel that the above chart may be the very definition of the phrase "correlation is not causation". That the circumstances of this markets momentum need to be taken into consideration. Is it an AI bubble, or something else?
At these market levels and valuations, I think this lack of concern might be endemic of the irrational exuberance that can mark the FOMO which might be driving the market, despite many warning signs.
Maybe this is one of those times when "don't fight the FED" fails to properly capture the entirety of the situation?
IVA chart indicates a single\familiar event of variable duration is meaningless.
as long as employment is high, there is a massive base flow into retirement american index stocks, and it will take a confluence of durable events to change sentiment. but economics eventually does change it.
Just want to mention: Wed Oct 1st, '25 p.m. SWVXX yield = 3.98%. I'll tough it out here, growing some short-term money for next year's fancy trip. I guess I won't miss the difference between 3.98% and 4.00%. Yes, it could slide further down.
When I talk to a cult member I always repeat what their leader said: Trump said on video: "smart people don't like me". If they don't understand what that means, they won't understand a logical argument.
I wouldn't rely primarily on current AI technology to pick stocks or funds. I was playing around with Perplexity the other day to assess some mutual funds. My queries were detailed and specific but Perplexity returned results outside of the parameters provided. In several instances, clearly erroneous answers were generated.
That's pretty interesting. Looking ahead, let's propose that the bugs get worked out of AI, and a basically reliable information source becomes widely available to almost anyone. What sort of impact would that have on financial markets?
Comments
After all, the S&P 500 was up today!
No problems whatsoever...
18 U.S. Code § 208 prohibits government employees from participating in matters where they have a financial interest, unless they disclose and receive written ...
And also - the leverage in use, including 2X and 3X ETFs. What could go wrong?
I believe the comment referenced by Larry was that the military should “begin practicing” in some of our major cities. (Not that it makes much difference.) I think Grand Blanc might be a good place to start.
Well, that's what tractor beams will do...
cf: Star Trek
1) Algos/computers
2) Buyers outnumbering sellers
3) Some mad scientist behind a red velvet curtain, pulling levers.
It feels a bit surreal at this point. Nothing seems to derail this Bull market. At some point it will flip, but that could a week from now or that could be a year away.
Here is an oddity during strange times - John Hussman's funds are all up this year, and NICELY:
Returns - YTD as of Sept 29
Hussman Strategic Allocation (HSAFX) + 8.48%
Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund (HSGFX) +10.58%
Hussman Strategic Total Return (HSTRX) +18.62%
Yep, strange times.
I see that analysts are forecasting a swell year ahead for earnings, but I thought that corporate visibility was limited due to tariffs. Did that clear up?
Tractor Beam
https://nbcnews.com/politics/congress/government-shutdown-deadline-democrats-republicans-trump-blame-rcna234516
Labor data will be available on Friday. Will the market behave differently this time?
Correction: BLS office is closed due to government shutdown. No labor data will be reported. While some services remain operational, some will not be available. TSA may be short handed so plan accordingly. Here is a list of what services that will be impacted.
https://nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/government-shutdown-what-happens-opened-closed-departments/3831580/
There will be no jobs report this Friday - BLS will be closed too.
"The U.S. government has shut down 20 times since the mid-1970s, according to data from the
House of Representatives. The S&P 500 averaged a microscopic 0.04% gain during those closures.
However, if we exclude one outlier—the 10% return during the 2018–2019 shutdown—the S&P 500’s
average return falls from 0.04% to -0.49%. In other words, the market sometimes dipped, sometimes rose,
but it never cratered. In fact, stocks gained ground during half of all prior government shutdowns."
At these market levels and valuations, I think this lack of concern might be endemic of the irrational exuberance that can mark the FOMO which might be driving the market, despite many warning signs.
Maybe this is one of those times when "don't fight the FED" fails to properly capture the entirety of the situation?
as long as employment is high, there is a massive base flow into retirement american index stocks, and it will take a confluence of durable events to change sentiment.
but economics eventually does change it.
OK, If smart people don't like Trump, then... oh,I get it! Then people who are stupid would like Trump.
That's pretty cool, because not too many of us here at MFO like Trump.
Lessee now... who here actually likes Trump?
Oh my goodness... that would have to be... yes ! FullyDuped 1000 !
See, I are pretty smart.
Donkey likes trump.
Forbes explains how AI can help you pick winners.
I was playing around with Perplexity the other day to assess some mutual funds.
My queries were detailed and specific but Perplexity returned results outside of the parameters provided.
In several instances, clearly erroneous answers were generated.
Added: I just ask google what % of AI would be 100% accurate. Very interest answer.
Suggest you check it out at Google.