Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Does it really matter what happens day by day? With all the money automagically going into stocks from weekly paychecks can the market go down? All that money has to find a home. Anyone know the automatic inflows from earnings that hit the market each month?
The invisible hand that keeps the markets propped up doesn't care about bad economic news...until the day when we least expect it. Cash flows matter to a point.
Tech (Mag 7) has fallen back a bit, but no real hardcore volatility yet. Starting to see rallies fail, though.
Its been a nice bull run, and the US stock market will not topple over easily.
Someone smarter than me said the market runs on fear or greed. It will run on greed until, as JD says, “we least expect it.” Fear and greed are real and powerful,,, so when the switch is flipped watch out.
The market can go down anytime regardless of inflows. Furthermore, market corrections (defined as 10% - 20% losses) can occur for seemingly no reason at all.
Someone smarter than me said the market runs on fear or greed. It will run on greed until, as JD says, “we least expect it.” Fear and greed are real and powerful,,, so when the switch is flipped watch out.
Institutional investors can certainly influence an index. Average Joes contributing to their 401K's can certainly shift their contribution directions, and their base holdings...but usually not until the damage has been largely done.
If the economy is driven by consumers and consumers start hugging their nuts because the hour by hour barrage of bad news scares them from all manner of discretionary spending, a slight correction could become something more serious. Or maybe just 2 guys break enough small things that big things start breaking. Like the markets. Greed will turn to fear like you have never seen before.
Were you investing in 1986, 2000, 2008, 2020 and 2022? Market drops happen much faster than rises. And sometimes they take many years to recover. The S&P actually lost money from 2000-2010.
Yes. “Market” could go down every year for a long while. There’s a lot of psychology involved along with the fundamentals. Loss of wealth from a market slide may inhibit consumer spending and further push to the downside.
Market is a very general term. Not all market sectors need to fall in unison. Some areas or international markets might hold up well even during a severe slide.
If the economy is driven by consumers and consumers start hugging their nuts because the hour by hour barrage of bad news scares them from all manner of discretionary spending, a slight correction could become something more serious. Or maybe just 2 guys break enough small things that big things start breaking. Like the markets. Greed will turn to fear like you have never seen before.
Well-put!
I'm not a nut-hugger who jumps at the first sign of bad news, but have found myself in recent days wondering about the viability of moving some stuff into cash for the next few months ... with the accompanying goal of buying back into things on any major swoons. I hate to churn accounts, but sometimes the return OF money is more important than the return ON money. I dunno.....mostly thinking out loud here. *shrug*
I mean, it's not panic if you're the first one *walking* out the door.... and besides, I also remember when Noah built the ark.
Hey!!! If you are a senior who gets social security and Medicare. ,,,, you would be foolish to not to think your cash flow might be changing. Or if you are one of many millions of American families who rely on Medicaid,,, your cash flow appears to be changing. All these factors will ripple through the economy. And that is ignoring the geopolitical changes that are unfolding by the hour. Let’s see how the market shrugs of the cancellation of the mid terms when the polling looks bleak and the crazy man declares a national emergency. Think it won’t happen?
I'm lightening up by the end of the week. Having ~5% on short term money makes the decision easier. Make sure you have an income stream identified. Mexico and Canada will retaliate with tariffs once Trump takes the first step. Next week might be messy.
"... and besides, I also remember when Noah built the ark."
I wasn't around then Do you know what kind of lumber he used?
Most likely cypress. I wonder if he'd have to pay a tariff on that?
The markets are hanging tough. If "stuff" finally hits the fan soon, none of us would be shocked. We are being guided down a dark path. Hopefully we come out the other side.
I just saw a reference to the future that was both optimistic and pessimistic. It foresaw a Democratic return to the White House but in a country and system so shattered that what would happen next was called “reconstruction.” Sorta like after the Civil War. And just imagine the remnants of maga fighting against the “reconstruction “ of democracy everywhere. It’s easy to break things and not so easy to put it back together.
Give the buffoon "credit" - if his term is just one big Revenge Tour against US Govt, he is doing a splendid job. Just splendid. Unfortunate that its US civilians who are collateral damage in all of this - although many of them did vote MAGA.
Comments
Tech (Mag 7) has fallen back a bit, but no real hardcore volatility yet. Starting to see rallies fail, though.
Its been a nice bull run, and the US stock market will not topple over easily.
Furthermore, market corrections (defined as 10% - 20% losses) can occur for seemingly no reason at all.
It's 0330 and I'm at the Marina Safeway listening to one stock clerk tell another, "Yeah, it's easy. If they start to go down you just sell."
Market is a very general term. Not all market sectors need to fall in unison. Some areas or international markets might hold up well even during a severe slide.
I'm not a nut-hugger who jumps at the first sign of bad news, but have found myself in recent days wondering about the viability of moving some stuff into cash for the next few months ... with the accompanying goal of buying back into things on any major swoons. I hate to churn accounts, but sometimes the return OF money is more important than the return ON money. I dunno.....mostly thinking out loud here. *shrug*
I mean, it's not panic if you're the first one *walking* out the door.... and besides, I also remember when Noah built the ark.
I wasn't around then Do you know what kind of lumber he used?
The markets are hanging tough. If "stuff" finally hits the fan soon, none of us would be shocked. We are being guided down a dark path. Hopefully we come out the other side.
Just today Mump1 is publicly trying to (re)rehire bird-flu researchers and senior AT controllers.
And yesterday Mump2 asked his Cabinet if anyone was unhappy and they all applauded.
Truly bad times ahead.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/cruel-and-usual-republicans-prepare
Um, yes it can! The buffoon's scorched earth management strategy appears to include domestic stock markets.
Unfortunate that its US civilians who are collateral damage in all of this - although many of them did vote MAGA.
So scorched earth it is!!!