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tax-free u.s. bond market and GOP control for 2-4 years


would be curious to hear if anyone thinks trump\MAGA\GOP can do any specific short-mid term damage to this sector.
am aware that broad tax cuts to individuals and corporations make it relatively unappealing.
could it be somewhat of a haven from chaos ?

points :
1. am unaware of any specific trump family member or crony looking to grift in this area.
2. most of the tax-free market are state+local gov groups with control of their own financing structure, not much reliant on fed trickle-down budgeting other than when initiating a project based on matching funds.
3. re-writing tax codes to make these groups taxable and compete with corporate bonds seems unlikely and not of interest to any faction.

Comments

  • "am unaware of any specific trump family member or crony looking to grift in this area."

    Now you've done it... if any of them happen to read that at least one of them will make up for lost time.
  • I haven't thoroughly thought through the ramifications, but a battle over SALT deductions may be looming.
    NBC News: Republicans clash over 'SALT' deductions as they seek to extend Trump's tax law

    If a cap is maintained, even if raised say to $20K, that would pretty much preserve the status quo. If the cap is removed, then the after tax yield of taxable bonds goes up for wealthy investors (those in the top tax brackets). In order to compete, yields on muni bonds in several large states might have to rise accordingly.

    That could in turn hurt FMV of existing munis.

    Eliminating or relaxing the SALT limit would add to the deficit. While some Republicans are still concerned about that, Trump does not appear to be. To the extent that he (i.e. Musk) is focused on the deficit, that seems to be on the spending side.
  • I've asked myself the same question.

    The 12 million people who are on the list to be deported do in fact pay federal-state-local taxes, state sales taxes, and property taxes. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates that for every 1 million undocumented immigrants who reside in the country, public services receive $8.9 billion in additional tax revenue. So...if those funds are no longer flowing to state coffers, is that a threat to that state's municipal bonds?
  • a2z
    edited December 2024
    re: SALT
    - again, some broad changes could make munis look relatively worse, but i was looking for speculation on trump+GOP specifically acting to damage the tax-free bond mkt.

    re: immigration taxes
    - well, trump wants to spend +10x of taxpayer money to deport, relative to incoming tax revenue.
    so the obvious grift here is a bunch of unqualified private MAGA corporations getting in the deportation biz. along the lines of his talentless border wall builders, expect criminal actions and minimal throughput.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-mass-deportation-program-cost/story?id=115318034
  • It seems to me that I just heard via TV , housing for deportation was to be started shortly. Tax money well spent ?!
  • If the mass deportation were done well (something I consider an oxymoron), with the housing thoughtfully planned, decentralized, supported with improved infrastructure, and coordinated with local governments, it could serve as a source of desperately needed affordable housing nationwide. It could be money well spent.

    And pigs can fly.

    https://www.habitat.org/our-work/need-for-affordable-housing
  • Housing as in like the past dwellings?
  • Well whatever the cost, it's surely WELL WORTH IT!! You all seem to only be considering the $9 billion in lost revenue & that impact...well try dealing with the $182 billion spent in 2023 alone on illegal immigration...so yeah, get these criminals out of here!!!
  • rsorden said:

    Well whatever the cost, it's surely WELL WORTH IT!! You all seem to only be considering the $9 billion in lost revenue & that impact...well try dealing with the $182 billion spent in 2023 alone on illegal immigration...so yeah, get these criminals out of here!!!

    bwahaha

    jeeesus

    You do know their crime rate, yes ?

    Turn off Fox, study up

    $182B , huh

    When you whine about produce a year from now we’ll start a gofundme for you
  • @davidmoran
    Reeeee someone got triggered by actual FACTS!!! Or maybe someone missed his senility meds...grow a brain u fn retard and stop letting libtard media brainwash ur dumb a$s.


    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/immigration/1658479/illegal-immigration-tab-182-billion-total-1156-per-taxpayer/
  • This is great!

    About time we had a hatemonger (and Examiner reader) here:

    // The Southern Poverty Law Center classifies FAIR as a hate group with ties to white supremacist groups.
    // FAIR was founded in 1979 by Michigan surgeon and white nationalist John Tanton. …

    You will let us know your gfm page for grocery help.

    Welcome ! Facts, bwahaha
  • Wow, ur so damn dumb & oblivious to your own racist fascist comments...you truly r an inbred, buck tooth cracker...typical of the unhinged morons of the left, you spew racist hateful comments & then accuse others of doing exactly what you are guilty of doing. Too bad your parents didn't abort you...or too bad it wasn't you sleeping on that NYC subway instead of that young lady...the world would be a much better place.
  • And using the SPLC as a guidepost just proves how absolutely meaningless & twisted your world view is...they're probably the most radical, far left loons out there...and have their own internal racist/sexist issues...FACTS dont care about your feelings, princess!!
  • I always thought MFO was there to discuss investment ideas in a more or less civil manner. Sadly, it seems I was totally wrong. On top of it, all of these personal insults are being happily thrown around at Christmas time.
    Maybe the editor of MFO is on a holiday vacation somewhere, but doesn't anybody mind the store in his/her absence and clean up this mess? It's an embarrassment to the MFO community.
  • First line in Examiner story: "Taxpayers spend at least $182 billion a year on illegal immigration, the cost of providing services to an estimated $15.5 million immigrants."

    Interesting Freudian slip. The last time dollar values were placed on human beings in the U.S. was somewhere around 1865.

    The piece references a similar report by FAIR in 2017. We can assume that since that report was similar, it used the same methodology. Here's Cato's takedown of that report and its methodology:

    FAIR’s “Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration” Study Is Fatally Flawed
    https://www.cato.org/blog/fairs-fiscal-burden-illegal-immigration-study-fatally-flawed

    Anyone with the ability to read mutual fund documents (prospectus, annual reports) should also be able to go through Cato's point by point analysis.
  • rsorden said:

    Wow, ur so damn dumb & oblivious to your own racist fascist comments...you truly r an inbred, buck tooth cracker...typical of the unhinged morons of the left, you spew racist hateful comments & then accuse others of doing exactly what you are guilty of doing. Too bad your parents didn't abort you...or too bad it wasn't you sleeping on that NYC subway instead of that young lady...the world would be a much better place.

    You poor dude. I hope Vivek can find you some work!
  • edited December 2024
    A previous post by rsorden:

    "it shows alot about you as a person, your character, and your lack of both intelligence & class, that you resort to name-calling & vulgarities. That 3rd grade public education on display here."

    pot meet kettle
  • Actually I have been trying to find where I name-called and used vulgarities !
    'Hatemonger'?
  • edited December 2024
    Please move this thread to OT - a big sand box to your heart's content. This thread has quickly outlived its usefulness in "Other Investing."

    Those interested in trashing this forum,

    Please first get your training on X where you will find lively discussions among the members of the Coalition of Single Issue Voters. What you guys do in this forum is pre-K stuff. Wear your big boy pants and duke it out on X.
  • This doesn't need to be off-topic. The original post if fine. It just needs a discussion without hate and venom. I did flag this rsorden character. Not sure what that amounts to. We'll let David S decide.
  • Isn't it interesting how often this sort of thing is initiated by the far-right types?
  • Old_Joe said:

    Isn't it interesting how often this sort of thing is initiated by the far-right types?

    You libtard, oj
  • Atts'a me!
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