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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Latest Memo From Howard Marks

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  • edited August 26
    Thanks @Mark. Howard is the only market pundit I pay attention too. Some, I’m afraid, are trying to generate clients, build name recognition or foster trading business for their firms. Others may be trying to boost prices of what they already own, perhaps with an eye to selling - although ”pump & dump” is (I believe) illegal. In the case of media, it’s all about keeping eyeballs glued to the screen by creating fear, euphoria or suspense. “Breaking News” is indeed broken. And then there’s the analysts, some of whom were still in HS when the 2007 bubble burst and in diapers back in ‘98-2000 at the height of the tech mania.

    I’ll go further. When I see someone drunk up in first class on my flight, creating a ruckus, abusing the cabin crew-member who refuses them another drink - and then a week later see them representing a big Wall Street investment firm on Bloomberg TV touting certain stocks or sectors … I’m cautioned to stay far away!

    I’ve borrowed a cartoon from @Mark’s linked article.

    image
  • We should make this a permanent thread to post all future Howard Marks memos and related forum discussion in one thread.
  • edited August 26
    Howard Marks is very smart and articulate, but you get generic ideas, and many shades of gray. You also get opinions on both sides to cover his Axx. The one thing you hardly get is what to do now and how markets work, and that's exactly what I'm looking for.

    Listen to Tom Bowley and you will learn a lot more about markets, what actually happens, and what to do with a degree of success. Every week, he posts his podcast.
    He is my number 1 and only analyst I listen to, no BS, just pure opinions. There is a good chance you will learn something useful.

    See (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCm7uW8Ekk0b-7n02F-C4ApQ?view_as=subscriber)
  • edited August 26
    I agree with FD that Marks makes you think harder. My cup of tea. Like to think. Might stave off dementia a few more years.
  • BaluBalu said:

    We should make this a permanent thread to post all future Howard Marks memos and related forum discussion in one thread.

    +1.
  • FD1000 said:

    Howard Marks is very smart and articulate, but you get generic ideas, and many shades of gray. You also get opinions on both sides to cover his Axx. The one thing you hardly get is what to do now and how markets work, and that's exactly what I'm looking for.

    Listen to Tom Bowley and you will learn a lot more about markets, what actually happens, and what to do with a degree of success. Every week, he posts his podcast.
    He is my number 1 and only analyst I listen to, no BS, just pure opinions. There is a good chance you will learn something useful.

    See (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCm7uW8Ekk0b-7n02F-C4ApQ?view_as=subscriber)

    I tried listening to the latest Bowley podcast. Could not get very far. I'm with @hank. Bowley just sounds so casual and informal. I'm waiting, waiting, waiting for him to make his ..... ..... POINT.
  • Marks: Emotion? No. Analysis? Yes.
  • The good news for all of us is fd1mm has found someone they are impressed by.
  • Devo said:

    The good news for all of us is fd1mm has found someone they are impressed by.

    Two people. See "US family finances as of 2y ago" thread.

  • Good article. Thanks for sharing
  • Well Crash, you dismissed it too quickly, maybe the new one is better
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISntD4uLUdk&t=899s
    You get real analysis, including bonds...just my own opinion. It can improve most investors trading, and it doesn't mean weekly trading.
    If you hold for years and diversified it's not for you.
  • If you hold for years and diversified it's not for you.
    +1.
  • edited August 27
    Marks is big on buying at a discount and holding long term. That’s his game. “Patience pays”, he would say. That philosophy seems at odds with what most seem to do today which is buy what’s done well recently. His specialty is distressed debt, but I think he would apply the same approach to equities, real estate or most any other risk asset. It probably helps if you’ve followed him over the years and are familiar with how he views investing.

    I wasn’t sure @Crash meant to “dismiss” Marks. I took his “ Marks: Emotion? No. Analysis? Yes ” remark as a complement. Certainly, if Crash can listen to Larry Summers every Friday, he should find Marks relatively easy to fathom.:)
  • Grin. @hank
    Sometimes I can manage to put up with Summers' halting delivery.
    H. Marks, YES. T. Bowley, NO.
  • That’s a wonderful way to put it! Halting indeed.
  • edited August 27
    @hank "Marks is big on buying at a discount and holding long term."

    FD: Millions tried the above while only a small % have done, Buffett. I have read his articles for a couple years, but he never helped me with my trading which is mostly in bond funds because....read what I said above, generalities and shades of gray.

    Quotes from the article:

    What this means is that in good times, investors obsess about the positives, ignore the negatives, and interpret things favorably. Then, when the pendulum swings, they do the opposite, with dramatic effects.
    The human brain is wired to ignore or reject incoming data that is at odds with prior beliefs, and investors are particularly good at this.
    Further complicating things in terms of rational analysis is the fact that most developments in the investment world can be interpreted both positively and negatively, depending on the prevailing mood.
    Rarely do investors realize that (a) there can be a limit to the run of good news or (b) an upswing can be so strong as to be excessive, rendering a downswing inevitable. (FD; SPY,QQQ have been going strong for 15 years).
    In short, sometimes the things that have gone up the most should be expected to continue to go up the most, and sometimes the things that have gone up the least should be expected to go up the most.

    The above is meaningless unless you mention the specifics.

    At least the best nugget by Buffet and Bogle = buy the SP500 for accumulators and go sleep for decades.
  • edited August 27
    C’mon FD. I was just trying to summarize Howard Marks’ rather well known approach to investing as he has elaborated on in scores of Oaktree “memos” over the years and also in several books. No intent here to advocate any particular approach or tell anyone else what might work best for them.

    You make some fine arguments against deep value investing. I’d never argue with you. And I don’t think @Mark or anyone else would be offended if you want to pick apart the linked memo from Howard Marks and expose the fallacies in his thinking. You obviously know a lot more about investing than he does.
  • (Looks away, tongue buried in cheek.)
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