Saunders says investors fared better under Democratic administrations + Steven Sears on the markets

hank

From Barron’s July 8, 2024 edition / Weekly columnist Jack Hough writing

”Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders put some numbers on that sentiment in a report earlier this year. An investor who put $10,000 in the S&P 500 SPX (0.54%) in 1961 and held only when Republicans were president would have made $102,293 by the end of last year, versus $500,476 for Democrats.”

“Red, Blue, and the White House: Handicapping Postelection Market Movers” By Jack Hough Barron’s July 8
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Here’s an unrelated but cogent point made by Steven Sears in the same Barron’s July 8 issue:

”Many people mistakenly believe the markets are dominated by people analyzing stocks and making rational decisions based on earnings and valuations. But much action is triggered by computers that react to hidden patterns or technical triggers.”

”Where Will Stocks Go Next? This Summer, Don’t Try to Guess.” By Steven M. Sears July 03, 2024 in Barron’s

We all knew this. Still … something to think about when your day’s return appears out of whack compared to the indexes or a stock you hold suddenly takes a dive for no apparent reason.

(Boldface print mine / Prefer to post this in OT)

Crash

We all knew this. Still … something to think about when your day’s return appears out of whack compared to the indexes or a stock you hold suddenly takes a dive for no apparent reason.

Maybe I oughta take comfort in those words. I am indeed able to tell myself I'm operating with a plan; I want to avoid di-worse-ification, too; My homework has produced holdings which are solid companies.

The daily vagaries of the Markets are only indirectly the result of human action. "We have met the enemy and he is us."

Derf

”Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders put some numbers on that sentiment in a report earlier this year. An investor who put $10,000 in the S&P 500 SPX (0.54%) in 1961 and held only when Republicans were president would have made $102,293 by the end of last year, versus $500,476 for Democrats.”

How much would you have if you just let it, $10K ride ?

Derf

From calculator $135,519 ? Next up ,number of years Dems & Reps held office. Cherry picking in a sense ?

Mark

@Derf - you're only off by a little bit. Here's the whole paragraph from @hank original post.

"Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders put some numbers on that sentiment in a report earlier this year. An investor who put $10,000 in the S&P 500 in 1961 and held only when Republicans were president would have made $102,293 by the end of last year, versus $500,476 for Democrats. (Tiny sample! Hidden variables! Not to be weaponized on Facebook!) One who stayed in the index no matter which party held the White House made $5,119,510."

hank

Thanks @Mark for filling in the missing piece. I’m always a bit reticent about copying from a subscription based source to which I subscribe. Not sure how much forbearance the publisher may grant. Was trying to be as brief as possible and still make the point I wanted to make. @Derf raises some interesting issues.

Derf

@Mark Would you take the time to run this $10K through this web site. https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/ See what you come up with. I tried expanding time line ending date from 1/30/24 to 6/30/24 & it made a difference. Total return$906,755
Would your amount be inflation induced ending of $5 mil + ?
P.S. seems I used the wrong calculator first time around.

Mark

@Derf - I did that and came up with the $906,755 same as you. I'm not sure how the quoted figure of $5 million+ was computed at all.