Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hunch: I'm expecting nothing in the way of cuts until 2025.
Hmm, I would be very surprised! The FED was very late on addressing interest rates to curb inflation. But now it would be an even bigger mistake keeping them high for an extended period.
Tough to say one way or the other. Market likes to see cutting in March. Others May said in June or later. Cutting late may increase lithe likelihood of recession, but the counter argument is the low unemployment number. Cutting too early when inflation still rising is not good either. We will see if the language Powell changes from “higher for longer”.
Nothing new IMO. Stocks are down, well, the SP500 was up 20% since Nov and it's only down about 1%(before 3 PM) from the top. There is always a chance of a 3-5% pullback which is just how the market works, but the 24/7 media would like you to think that they know why markets are down or up...and they don't.
I pay zero attention to economic indicators and the media because they don't have a high correlation to what markets will do in the next 1-3-4-8 weeks. Powell didn't change his tune, rates will change according to the data, and the traders try to front-run him.
So, if you are a typical investor, you should own several funds according to your goals and hardly trade. I'm a bond trader, I never invest based on predictions, I invest based on charts and uptrends and they tell me in real-time exactly what to do.
I doubt there will be significant rate cuts unless there is a recession. The labor market is still pretty strong, consumers still have cash from pandemic
As "everybody" thinks the Fed will cut five times this year, it is almost guaranteed they won't
Don't forget that the Fed likes to keep some dry powder in reserve to fight economic downturns. With the economy doing OK as it is right now they may just be inclined to leave good-enough alone. "If it's working, don't fool with it".
Comments
Stocks are down, well, the SP500 was up 20% since Nov and it's only down about 1%(before 3 PM) from the top.
There is always a chance of a 3-5% pullback which is just how the market works, but the 24/7 media would like you to think that they know why markets are down or up...and they don't.
I pay zero attention to economic indicators and the media because they don't have a high correlation to what markets will do in the next 1-3-4-8 weeks.
Powell didn't change his tune, rates will change according to the data, and the traders try to front-run him.
So, if you are a typical investor, you should own several funds according to your goals and hardly trade.
I'm a bond trader, I never invest based on predictions, I invest based on charts and uptrends and they tell me in real-time exactly what to do.
As "everybody" thinks the Fed will cut five times this year, it is almost guaranteed they won't
"If it's working, don't fool with it".
The main key for rate increase/decrease over the years is how fast and how much.