Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I am looking for funds or ETF's to add to my watch list. What funds are best in class? Looking for a fund or ETF with SD of 5.20% or less. Anything better than OSTIX's metrics? PIMIX.
Unlike Mr. Sherman, I assumed the OP was talking about 3 yr stddev, because OSTIX's 5.46% is close to the target 5.20%. The latter is just enough lower to make it worth looking at a fund that is at least that much "better". In contrast, OSTIX's 10 yr stddev of 4.68% is not close to the 5.20% target.
Here's another fund that beats OSTIX over 3, 5, and 10 years with 3 year std dev below 5.2%.
I used PV to get the SD. Long enough ball park time frame. 1/2008 to 9/2023 for PIMIX and OSTIX. Time period year to year. Thanks for MDHIX. I will look at it.
Funds mentioned have a bulge in 5-yr SDs. That is because they have full impact of pandemic 2020. The 3-yr window is just getting out of the main pandemic hit, and 10-yr reduces the pandemic impact as there are many non-pandemic years. That is why it is also useful to look at charts beyond summary statistics.
Another thing to note is that funds evaluated are of different types - ST-HY, IT-HY, multisector (that includes sovereigns + corporates + HYs + EMs), so they are expected to behave somewhat differently.
Lets drill down. Are there any funds or ETF's with less than PIMIX 15 year SD of 5.18% that has a CAGR greater than PIMIX 6.50%? Category doesn't matter to me.
@shipwreckedandalone ( do you know that MFO doesn't auto-fill-in usernames, and all letters in your name have to typed for MFO tag?), I have PIMIX available in my 403b. It's a giant fund and has been in the news for large inflows (see a thread nearby). But its 30-day SEC yield on 5.46% (only; 9/30/23) gave me a pause - that is its potential future LT return. I have higher paying SVs (TIAA Traditional) also available. I am looking into it - may be it is very conservatively positioned now.
Yogi, as always thanks for your input. Sorry about the long user name. OSTIX PIMIX has metrics comparable to some good Mod Cons balanced funds but much less MD.
I also have HY VWEAX available in my 403b. Surprisingly, VWEHX and multisector PIMIX track each other quite well although they are very different funds. VWEHX SDs are a bit higher: 7.83, 8.74, 6.77, but its 30-day SEC yield is better at 7.84%. So, I have decided to add some to VWEHX instead of PIMIX. https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=PIMIX&compare=VWEAX&id=p55691218153
Periods like GFC 2008-09, pandemic 2020, recession and credit freeze are problematic for ALL HY - ST-HY, IT-HY, even multisector funds that include HY.
But the current thinking is that recession has been cancelled for now.
+1 Yes - Nice interview. Some insights into bond investing. This week’s Barron’s refers to BINC (incorrectly) as a “high yield” fund. Not really. Rieder addresses various allocations. My readings on M* previously suggested around 35% HY. But it looks like it’s currently a lot lower than that. He really likes international. Perhaps waiting for ”the worm to turn” (against the Dollar) in the FX markets …
Interviewer (Bob Pisani / CNBC) mentions the .40% ER. Neglected to add that that’s after a fee waiver. From the Prospectus: ”As described in the “Management” section of the Fund’s prospectus beginning on page 21, BFA has contractually agreed to waive 0.10% of its management fee payable, through June 30, 2025.”
FWIW - I recently moved from JPIB into BINC. But the former is an excellent fund. Folks wanting to overweight international bonds might take a look at it. If I wanted an additional bond etf it would be JPIB.
@hank and @shipwreckedandalone: I watched the interview also. Did either of you get the sense that Rieder, for all his smarts, was making the best case for his fund with the goal of attracting assets? I suppose one could feel the same way about any of the PMs who give interviews, but I don’t normally find them to be doing marketing.
Hard to say. What manager doesn’t want more assets? Nearly included in my earlier post: ”Rieder could sell ice to (the proverbial) Eskimo”
But I felt it would be a bit unfair. Have watched him a few times on Bloomberg Wall Street Week and that’s just the way he typically is. Always seeing the glass ”half full” as BaluBalu said. In my mind, his professional integrity is very high.
Certainly a lot of “experts” extolling bonds in today’s climate. Someone (likely a Barron’s contributor) commented that 1-3 years out they thought bonds would do better than equities, but that 5+ years out they liked equities better. Personally, I’ll side with a Mark Twain comment from Life on the Mississippi when his riverboat mentor asked him what the next bend in the river ahead was called - “I told him I didn’t know.”
Anybody see a likeness to Peter Lynch? Lynch was a glass half-full guy. Always finding something good to invest in. Claimed his wife would return home from shopping for clothing & accessories with valuable insights into what companies to buy. I don’t know whether or not Lynch attracted any new assets into Magellan … Anybody remember?
Reider (BlachRock), Ivascyn (Pimco), Giroux (T Rowe Price) are fund managers as well as CIOs of their respective firms. It's now part of their JOBS to talk up their firms to pickup some loose change. In fact, any fund manager on TV has some agenda and he/she isn't there out of goodness of heart or for public service.
Comments
Below is a comparison of RSIIX, OSTIX and PIMIX per Morningstar:
3 Yrs 5 Yr 10 Yr
RSIIX
Returns (10/27/23) 6.21% 3.90% 3.88%
Risk (09/30/23)
Sharpe 1.05 0.31 0.54
Std Dev 3.63 7.01 5.23
Upside 61% 62% 65%
Downside (22%) 10% 1%
OSTIX
Returns (10/27/23) 2.91% 3.40% 3.63%
Risk (09/30/23)
Sharpe 0.31 0.27 0.57
Std Dev 5.44 5.95 4.68
Upside 89% 72% 69%
Downside 14% 27% 9%
PIMIX
Returns (10/27/23) 0.07% 2.12% 3.73%
Risk (09/30/23)
Sharpe (0.21) 0.11 0.60
Std Dev 5.77 6.18 4.67
Upside 105% 86% 91%
Downside 48% 55% 33%
Here's another fund that beats OSTIX over 3, 5, and 10 years with 3 year std dev below 5.2%.
MDHIX (avail @$2500 min in Fidelity IRAs)
Returns (10/27/23) 3.68% 3.64% 3.96%
Risk (09/30/23)
Sharpe 0.46 0.28 0.58
Std Dev 4.24 6.26 5.13
Upside 78% 75% 78%
Downside 6% 29% 14%
Another thing to note is that funds evaluated are of different types - ST-HY, IT-HY, multisector (that includes sovereigns + corporates + HYs + EMs), so they are expected to behave somewhat differently.
HY indexed ETFs are HYG, USHY, JNK, etc.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=PIMIX&compare=VWEAX&id=p55691218153
But the current thinking is that recession has been cancelled for now.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/04/osterweis-strategic-income-ostix-fund/
https://www.cnbc.com/etf-edge/
Interviewer (Bob Pisani / CNBC) mentions the .40% ER. Neglected to add that that’s after a fee waiver.
From the Prospectus: ”As described in the “Management” section of the Fund’s prospectus beginning on page 21, BFA has contractually agreed to waive 0.10% of its management fee payable, through June 30, 2025.”
FWIW - I recently moved from JPIB into BINC. But the former is an excellent fund. Folks wanting to overweight international bonds might take a look at it. If I wanted an additional bond etf it would be JPIB.
When does ETF Edge air?
Hard to say. What manager doesn’t want more assets? Nearly included in my earlier post: ”Rieder could sell ice to (the proverbial) Eskimo”
But I felt it would be a bit unfair. Have watched him a few times on Bloomberg Wall Street Week and that’s just the way he typically is. Always seeing the glass ”half full” as BaluBalu said. In my mind, his professional integrity is very high.
Certainly a lot of “experts” extolling bonds in today’s climate. Someone (likely a Barron’s contributor) commented that 1-3 years out they thought bonds would do better than equities, but that 5+ years out they liked equities better. Personally, I’ll side with a Mark Twain comment from Life on the Mississippi when his riverboat mentor asked him what the next bend in the river ahead was called - “I told him I didn’t know.”
Anybody see a likeness to Peter Lynch? Lynch was a glass half-full guy. Always finding something good to invest in. Claimed his wife would return home from shopping for clothing & accessories with valuable insights into what companies to buy. I don’t know whether or not Lynch attracted any new assets into Magellan … Anybody remember?