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within a hair's width of a massive misjudgment: a cautionary tale

I'm still learning to navigate in a world in which the Morningstar fund screener is ... well, worthless. A once-useful tool has been reduced to being able to answer a single question: "what does Morningstar think about this fund?" Star rating, analyst rating, ESG rating: yes, yes, yes. Comparisons of absolute and risk-adjusted returns over meaningful periods? Go 'way, kid, ya bother me!

Today's adventure sought to answer the question: what are the most consistently solid small cap value funds around? I used MFO Premium to look at domestic and global funds, checked Sharpe and APR for the past 3-, 5-, 7-, 9- and 11-year periods. I found two disappointments: two Great Owl funds were consistently in or around the top five, but one was only available to Fidelity fund managers (Fido Series Intrinsic Opps) and the other (Kinetic Small Cap Opps) had a 41% stake in a single stock, Texas Land & Power.

Pinnacle Value and Aegis Value were frequently, but not always, top five funds. They're both rock solid, distinctive, tiny one-man operations.

The surprise was Bridgeway Small Cap Value, the fund that was in the top five more often that any other. Small- to micro-cap. 130 names. Quant. Five star.

All of which I was going to share until I scanned its Morningstar profile and noticed that its success was entirely driven by one year: 2021. The fund made north of 67% and left everyone in the dust. That number then elevated all of the trailing comparisons. It otherwise trailed more than two-thirds of its peers in five of the past 11 years. It's trailed its index six times but I have no idea of what to make of it since it's a custom Morningstar index which apparently cannot be entered into their charting tool to generate a detailed comparison ... though I can get the index denominated in Euros, pounds, Canadian dollars...). Overall, 2020-2022 was a solid stretch for the fund. 2013-19 and 2023, not so much.

All of which I share as a cautionary tale: look carefully, then look again, differently.

Comments

  • In the spirit of looking differently:

    Style boxes, and fund names, are becoming less than useful reference points. Anything based on the S&P 400 midcap range shows up in the small cap box. Funds that tread in less popular names from the 500, like SPGP, are more than half midcap. Vanguard value funds, like VSIAX and VMVAX, are half blend, or more. Lipper says RWJ is core, M* says value. FMIMX is a midcap blend, or a smallcap core, despite the 13.68 PE forward.

    If I am looking for small caps, I now include the whole range of mid and small caps in my MFO premium search. Then I look for a Martin ratio => 1, plus alpha greater than zero, expense ratio <= 1, and since COVID for the first pass.

    Adjust the expense ratio if you are on the lookout for expensive boutiques.

    Once the results are in, I add the columns that I associate with "value." These days I am especially interested in their debt rating. There may be more naked swimmers out there yet to be revealed.

    I have this search saved, and I am looking forward to seeing the results after the September data is loaded.
  • Red flags for BRSVX in gross data include Morningstar 5*, Bronze; high SD. Of course, the chart tells all - all the fun was in 2021.
    StockCharts, 3 Yrs https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=IJR,SPSM&id=p45673872103
  • beebee
    edited October 2023
    How does MFO Premium screen for intangibles?

    It appears we live in a time where a company’s valuations is increasingly impacted on criteria that can be difficult to measure.

    Here’s an article on the subject of recognizing the value of a business’ “intangibles”.

    intangibles-now-represent-a-greater-share-of-value-at-companies
  • Thanks for the heads up @David_Snowball. We are so lucky that @Charles has built such a wonderful tool with MFO premium!
  • This is why I don't personally like the standard return stats. I find rolling periods and charts much more informative. More times than I can count, I've seen comparative charts which imply one thing, only to find on closer inspection that the perceived 'outperformance' came down to a period of a month or less, a year or two previously. No way in heck you benefit from that!
  • msf
    edited October 2023
    Several people have commented in other posts about cumulative performance figures being distorted by a recent year's hot performance ("what have you done for me lately"), including Prof. Snowball, me, and others.

    In Prof. Snowball's piece (linked to above, and here), he praises BRUFX by looking at "three metrics across more meaningful stretches: multiple decades, full market cycles and the last two market crashes." BRSVX hasn't been around nearly as long as BRUFX; it started in Oct 2003. With this limitation in mind, here are the data for AVALX, PVFIX, BRSVX. I included IJS (S&P 600 value ETF) as a benchmark in the Portfolio Visualizer link for each period but did not transcribe its figures below.

    Period CAGR Std Dev Sharpe Ratio
    AVALX PVFIX BRSVX AVALX PVFIX BRSVX AVALX PVFIX BRSVX
    15 yr 11.02% 5.54% 9.51% 28.77% 10.78% 22.81% 0.75 0.69 0.72

    Full Cycle 2007-2020
    6.81% 4.59% 5.24% 28.18% 10.20% 21.97% 0.35 0.41 0.30

    Down Cycle 2007-2009
    -5.09% 2.65% -9.59% 36.83% 11.35% 28.03% -0.01 0.11 -0.37
    Looking at these broader picture numbers, it seems not so much that BRSVX benefited from one hot year, but rather that it doesn't do quite so well in down years. Comparing the BRSVX with AVALX not by a calendar year (i.e. 2020), but trough to peak (roughly 3/19/20 - 6/4/21), one sees similar performance though following different paths.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=AVALX&id=p85687049134

    It's in the latter half of 2021, when the market turned and AVALX's greater volatility worked to its detriment that the funds diverged radically.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BRSVX&compare=AVALX,IJS&id=p37670197904

    PVFIX is certainly a steady performer. But at a cost of way underperforming in good years. From its chart (see the 15 year performance link above), it almost looks like a SCV cousin of RPHYX - ridiculously steady relative to peers. Something I value in a "near cash" fund. But in an equity fund, my personal risk tolerance is a bit higher than that.

    If you like AVALX, did you look into DFFVX? A clone of it is available in variable annuities, e.g. TIAA. So unlike the Fidelity fund that is used only internally by Fidelity, some investors could access this fund (sort of).


  • Bridgeway Funds, at least judging from their very straightforward and honest shareholder reports, are not renowned for betting the house on a single issue. However, in 2021, the one stock owned by BRSVX that got the fund its outlandish gain was none other than GameStop. I guess you have to revere the PM who can tame a bucking bronco, but most of us value investors expect our managers the be, well, a little bit staid. What would John Houseman have said?
  • "...They Earn it!"
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