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Credit Default Swaps

Does anyone know where one would find charts of credit default swaps for the banks?

I don't believe for a minute that this banking crisis is contained at all. So why are Schwab CDS blowing out if everything is ok per Chuck, CEO etc...? Why? Irrational fear, no trust/confidence in Yellen, Biden etc?

I can't believe that Deutsche Bank is still operational in its current form. I actually just sold 100% of a fund last week that held their stocks via swaps and had DB as the counterparty (Not that I have any knowledge of what could happen etc, it is just that nope, even if I get a whiff of something might go haywire, in this climate I am Daddy to Basecamp I'm out.)

I couldn't care less if I miss the next 25% upside in the market but sure would be tough if I didn't head for the bunker when I sniffed the 'Nader was coming...

Got Gold? "This is contained" "Safe and Effective" "Ruble to Rubble"...blah blah blah?

What say you, irrational thinking on my part or does everyone have their head in the sand?

Baseball Fan

Comments

  • No directly responding to your question ... Quickly scanning Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank 5 yr CDS is around 205. The article below from Bloomberg on Friday also provides some insight:

    By Macarena Muñoz
    (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG was at the center of
    another selloff in financial shares heading into the weekend.
    The German bank tumbled 12% on Friday. Credit default-swaps
    on Deutsche Bank’s euro, senior debt surged to the highest since
    they were introduced in 2019. Other banks with high exposure to
    corporate lending also declined, with Commerzbank sliding 9% and
    France’s Societe Generale falling 7%.
    The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency
    rescue of Credit Suisse last weekend has rattled investors and
    raised questions about the broader stability of the financial
    industry at a time of soaring interest rates and high inflation.

    The moves follow losses in US banks yesterday, which
    tumbled even after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told
    lawmakers that regulators would be prepared for further steps to
    protect deposits if needed.
    “The situation will not be solved by comforting words, but
    will only be mitigated with concrete facts and figures,” said
    Andreas Lipkow, a strategist at Comdirect Bank. “Patience is
    therefore required and the coming quarterly figures from banks
    will be highly scrutinized.”
    Separately, a tier 2 subordinated bond by Deutsche Bank
    surged toward face value on Friday after the lender unexpectedly
    announced its decision to redeem the note early.
    The notes, which mature in 2028, had slumped to as low as
    90 cents in the aftermath of Credit Suisse’s takeover. While
    pricing had recovered in recent days, they were still indicated
    at about 94, suggesting a large probability of Deutsche Bank
    skipping its call option.
    The pressure on European banks is coming after regulators
    and company executives have sought to reassure traders about the
    health of the industry. The government-brokered takeover of
    Credit Suisse by UBS is “no indication” of the state of European
    banks, Deutsche Bank management board member Fabrizio Campelli
    said at a conference yesterday.
    He also said that the German lender’s retail deposits are
    “very diversified” and hence don’t have the kind of
    concentration risk that seems to have persisted at Silicon
    Valley Bank.
    Deutsche Bank Junior Bond Surges as Firm Defies Call Skip
    Fears
    The Stoxx 600 Banks Index was 4.4% lower on Friday, making
    it the worst-performing sector in Europe.
    “The greater danger is the economic outlook and indeed how
    both the economy and the financial system will cope with a
    recession,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn.
    “That’s when asset impairment is more likely. But of course the
    former can easily precipitate the latter, so it’s a fragile
    situation.”

    --With assistance from Farah Elbahrawy.

    To contact the reporter on this story:
    Macarena Muñoz in Madrid at [email protected]
    To contact the editors responsible for this story:
    Rodrigo Orihuela at [email protected]
    Charles Penty, Lynn Thomasson
  • If you read the panic-news, Schwab/SCHW 5-yr CDS have about "tripled" to 120s (from 40s), but that (absolute) level still isn't concerning. Credit Suisse CDS near the end were 300s (of course, they also crossed 120s at some point). These are in bps.

    Barron's this week has a bearish (but sloppy) story on SCHW. I will watch how it trades on Monday. It is still above +73.5% from 2020 Covid low. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/990/thread

    BEARISH. Schwab (SCHW; cash-sorting – lot of cash is leaving Schwab because its brokerage accounts don’t offer money-market funds as core/settlement account and Schwab Bank rates are paltry; 50% of 2022 revenues were from net interest revenues; the HTM portfolio is carried at par, but if marked-to-market, losses would well exceed the capital base; Schwab points out that the AFS portfolio (already market-to-market) will provide ample liquidity; insiders bought stock to boost confidence; stock may remain weak; a full-page ad on its government SNVXX and retail-prime SWVXX money-market funds is on pg 21; pg 14)

    Schwab has issued statements such as that even if 100% of its bank deposits leave, it has enough liquidity to meet that. And its insiders have bought stock.
  • Mr. Sherman, YBB, thank you for the additional color/info...we'll see how this all plays out.

    Best Regards,

    Baseball Fan
  • edited March 2023
    @Baseball_Fan

    Per Billie Joel:
    You may be right
    I may be crazy
    Oh, but it just may be a lunatic you're looking for
    Turn out the light
    Don't try to save me
    You may be wrong for all I know
    But you may be right

    The future is clear as mud.
  • @MikeM. Ha! Well done. We'll see right?
  • There are reports on Twitter LINK that CNBC has removed the 5-yr CDS data for several major US banks. These had tickers of "nameCD5 (for 5-yr CDS)", so for JPM, that would be JPMCD5 (now 0 results).

    The apparent rationale seemed to be that this sort of data was being misused and causing unnecessary panic. An alternative would have been to be more educational. As it is, the free CDS data are hard to find.
  • @MikeM: has Billy Joel transitioned? or is the spell-check starting rumors? Love that song, BTW.
  • see below of bank perpetual preferred summary via Bloomberg:

    Issuer Spread (bps) Yield
    Citizens Financial 2775 30.47%
    Bank of New York Mellon 1386 17.13%
    Capital One Financial 1066 14.19%
    PNC Financial Services 907 12.70%
    Citigroup 805 12.03%
    State Street 743 12.26%
    U.S. Bancorp 723 10.69%
    JPMorgan Chase 716 11.38%
    Goldman Sachs 642 10.36%
    Bank of America 634 10.24%
    Truist Bank 586 9.97%
    Wells Fargo 563 9.62%
    TD Group US Holdings 534 8.62%
    Morgan Stanley 350 7.72%
  • I can find JPMCD5 ( up today to 98 from 75 last week!) but no BACCD5 or SCHWCD5 or GSCD5
  • Some of the preferred yields listed are overstated because th edata pull came form Bloomberg as an average and some issuers have an outlier which brings yield higher
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