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So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake? #2

AS the original thread went off course decided to start this thread .

As the days go by, the head - faking gets better !!

I'm still looking to get back to dip buying level in June (?) .

Trying to enjoy the ride for the moment, Derf

Comments

  • edited October 2022
    Who know what is leading this week’s short rally. Many buy the dips have not panned out so well this year. The trend of missed earnings, lower revenues, and cost cutting does not bode well going forward for the market. For now, I am focusing being more defensively and get through this rate hike cycle.

    This morning the GDP report came out. First, it looks encouraging until further examination revealed the situation is more complicated than it appeared.
    https://npr.org/2022/10/27/1131605558/gdp-economy-growth-inflation-employment-spending-housing-interest-rates
  • OT: See in the NPR article, talk about a guy born to his profession: "Paul Schwinghammer, a home builder and president of the Indiana Builders Association."
  • Oddly enough, no mention of his general foreman, John Smashthumb.
  • Derf said:

    AS the original thread went off course decided to start this thread .

    As the days go by, the head - faking gets better !!

    I'm still looking to get back to dip buying level in June (?) .

    Trying to enjoy the ride for the moment, Derf

    *****************************************

    Yes, well. Earnings reporting season. The big famous names among the FAANGS disappointed. The US banks, I think, did not do badly. Forget about CS--- for....fucking-ever.

    On the other hand, 2 of my 4 single stocks have reported good quarters and raises in their dividends. Reason enough to stick with them, as well as the rising share prices. Waiting for the other two. Limit orders have been put in, but the shares refuse to drop for several days. A nice problem to have, I suppose.
  • edited October 2022
    Old_Joe said:

    Oddly enough, no mention of his general foreman, John Smashthumb.

    His only comment on the story was "@&#*&*$#**!"
  • Oh yeah- that sounds very familiar.
  • Sven said:

    Who know what is leading this week’s short rally.

    I think this is actually the correct answer, if translated a certain way, to the OP's question,. Its a market rally boosted by a short squeeze.
  • It has been more than the past couple days. It began on October 13 when the S@P was down 2.3% intraday on the hot CPI report but then closed up 2.6%. The very definition of an out of the ordinary price momentum day. This rally has a different feel as bonds seem to have bottomed (peak in rates) too. It also has a different feel in how it has reacted to all the negative earnings recently from the tech giants. I also find it hard to believe the market won’t bottom until the Fed pivots as that seems to be the consensus view. Universally held by almost everyone.

    A good trader has to play every rally as THE rally even though there has been so many false rallies this year. Much akin to 2008. This may be nothing more than the impressive fake out rally in July/ early August. Regardless we have three major catalysts on the horizon that could answer if this time the bottom is really in. Next week’s Fed meeting/comments, next week’s October employment report, and maybe the real biggie, the election results week after next.

  • Good points, all.
  • Ty
    Good discussion
    Prog good time to buy becauses price got a little cheaper, if you are wrong probably need hold 3_5 yrs. Not sure if price get lowered than these levels
  • @johnN - why would you hold something for 3-5yrs if you bought at the wrong price? I don't understand.
  • It's price manipulation before the election. Lower lows post election.
  • edited October 2022
    Hi sir Mark
    Lots long term investors still buying at these levels hope storm passes and hope gain/reap benefits w new future bull market

    Take Facebook meta for instant, price so cheap now almost 60 70% downturns with this bear market, but the business model not so good presently especially with previous Er and many new competition platforms (YouTube tiktok Snapchat,l wechat Instagram etc). We added Facebook near 220 dollars per shares, may have to hold it for quite awhile and hope it is not another Aol in 3 6 yrs and hope return to previous midhighs 250s 280s per share.

    May not be same scenarios if you keep buying Spy or iwm qqq
  • stayCalm said:

    It's price manipulation before the election. Lower lows post election.

    I fear you're correct.

  • edited November 2022
    Junkster said:

    It has been more than the past couple days. It began on October 13 when the S@P was down 2.3% intraday on the hot CPI report but then closed up 2.6%. The very definition of an out of the ordinary price momentum day. This rally has a different feel as bonds seem to have bottomed (peak in rates) too. It also has a different feel in how it has reacted to all the negative earnings recently from the tech giants. I also find it hard to believe the market won’t bottom until the Fed pivots as that seems to be the consensus view. Universally held by almost everyone.

    A good trader has to play every rally as THE rally even though there has been so many false rallies this year. Much akin to 2008. This may be nothing more than the impressive fake out rally in July/ early August. Regardless we have three major catalysts on the horizon that could answer if this time the bottom is really in. Next week’s Fed meeting/comments, next week’s October employment report, and maybe the real biggie, the election results week after next.

    That out of the ordinary momentum day as well as Dow double bottom on October 13 looking more and more like something more than another bear market rally. Dow up almost 16% in less than a month. Thursday could be pivotal especially if there is a larger than expected decline in inflation. Then there will be talk about a Fed pivot/pause. If it is the opposite and yet another bad inflation report will be interesting how the market reacts to the bad news over the ensuing days. Lately bad news hasn’t been able to bring it down.

    Edit: Can’t say the action in junk bonds has been very encouraging since the 10/13 bottom. Positive yet very muted gains. A bond person would be just as well off in the less volatile floating rate funds. Then again, does it really matter? All the old time traders from days gone by, many frail and feeble now seem to be enjoying camping out in money market funds and earning a six digit income.

  • Junk bonds: still 13+ percent of my stuff. Better yield than BL offerings, though the share price on FR/BL has held up pretty well.
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