TROW is sitting around $105 today - off more than 46% YTD. Used to be only Cathie Wood could post those kinds of numbers.
I think money managers like TROW worth watching because it may say something about the mood of the retail investor. And it’s not an outlier. Generally, brokers and money managers, especially at the retail level, have been taking a beating all year.
TRBCX (cited briefly in the
Barron’s thread) was off 37% YTD as of Friday. Largest holding is AMZ. Its ETF counterpart TCHP is down 2% today - so expect similar for TRBCX.
The war heated up over the weekend with Ukraine (reportedly) damaging a key Russian infrastructure and Moscow retaliating with a barrage of missile attacks on Ukrainian residential areas. Gold, typically a hedge against chaos, responded by falling about $35 from already low YTD levels. Go figure.
There are small pockets of green here and there today - some defensive consumer staples and isolated pockets of commodities - but overall the path of least resistance is down, down, down. Lots of shorting going on I’m sure.
With the NASDAQ now down nearly 33% YTD I thought a visual might be appropriate.
Comments
https://mutualfundobserver.com/2022/10/shining-the-light-into-black-box-funds/
For now I am staying with energy funds, ETFs and commodity futures. Also a healthy dose of treasury and CD ladders and a stable value fund as my cash substitutes. Just want to minimize the drawdown for now and go back in at a later date.
.......And already, PSTL has turned negative, just now.
PSTL. NHYDY. ET. BHB.
PRNEX. Natural Resources. Down YTD just -1.67%. But my own "mileage" in that fund is not that good at all. Still 10% of my total.
Markets run in cycles and usually overshoot on both the up and down sides. There are many funds / ETFs that short the overall market or parts of it and it’s natural that many will gravitate to those under current conditions. I subscribe to a newsletter that has been consistently recommending about 12% in SPDN. I played that game for a few months. But with the major indexes now down 20-30% from their highs, it’s not a game I care to play any longer.
Baring something like 1929, I personally feel the odds are in your favor now if you have a 3-5 year time horizon and own a portfolio of good equity funds. But I could be wrong.
Re @Sven’s earlier reference to “alternatives”. The only fund I currently hold that meets the strict definition of alternative is NLSAX. But I also include ABRZX and PRPFX in my “alternative” sleeve along with 3 stocks in smaller quantity. Of those, the insurer has had a great year (even with Ivan). But the bank and baker have both lost $$.
BTW, AQR have a number of alternatives with good returns, but they require $1M even as investor shares.
- From September 2007 to March 2009 the NASDAQ lost more than 50%.
The NASDAQ is typically more volatile than the S&P or Dow. John Templeton once remarked that a market doesn’t often decline more than 50% from its top and remain at that level for very long. Exceptions have occurred. Japan comes to mind.
* NASDAQ numbers came from Wikipedia articles. They may not be precise, but I believe them close approximations
@Crash - My original comment was intended to be light-hearted. I don’t have a number in mind. But I’ll allow for worst case scenarios. There are other things to consider. Down 50% and up 65% in short order is one thing. But down 50% without a snapback is an entirely different matter.
PS - Only Jeremy Grantham could enjoy this kind of price action.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-rowe-price-group-reports-123000033.html
"T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ-GS: TROW), today reported preliminary month-end assets under management of $1.23 trillion as of September 30, 2022 (Edit: vs $1.688 trillion, 12/31/22). Preliminary net outflows for the third quarter of 2022 were $24.6 billion, bringing preliminary year-to-date net outflows to $44.6 billion....."
The drop from yesterday (around 5%) was so large I checked first to see if maybe due to a distribution - but doesn’t appear to be. These types of companies are really volatile. I owned a similar one for perhaps a week or two a while back and bailed on it. Never cared for carnival rides!
Interesting issue here. By some reports, the “big money” exited equities early in the year while the retail crowd hung on. But your info. plus other I’ve seen indicates the Mom & Pop crowd have been fleeing!
Wow - Add those outflows at TRP to the drop in AUM that would occur naturally from lower bond and stock prices and it’s got to really hurt.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60139/barron-s-funds-quarterly-2022-q3-october-10-2022#latest
Nice summary on your part here. I remember (80s-90s) when customer service there was a delight. Folks would have “paid up” just to deal with such a thorough, competent, client friendly company. Likely they cut back on service to conserve costs while trying to compete on fees with those index funds and ETFs.
PRWCX with Giroux is a gem, though no longer own it. Having a tough go of it lately - but what isn’t?
< After further review the sold equity referred to MF's & ETF's. NOT individual stock holdings. That still puts 99.6 % feeling the pain ! >
Thanks , Derf