Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Fears of sabotage as gas pours into Baltic from Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines

edited September 2022 in Other Investing
Seismologists detect spikes in undersea activity, possibly indicating explosions, amid three simultaneous leaks

A current report from The Guardian


image

Following are excerpts from the report, severely edited for brevity:
Gas is pouring into the Baltic Sea from three separate leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines amid claims by seismologists in Sweden and Denmark of two sharp spikes in undersea activity, possibly indicating explosions, and speculation about sabotage.

A seismograph on the Danish island of Bornholm, near where the leaks occurred, twice recorded spikes on Monday, the day on which the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines underwent dramatic falls in pressure, the German geological research centre GFZ said.

A Danish military flight over the leaks brought back striking images from the ruptures, including one showing an area of bubbling gas a kilometre wide on the sea’s surface.

The seismograph recorded near-silence until just after midnight GMT (2am local time), when there was a spike representing a tremor in the earth followed by a continuous hissing wave form. The pattern was repeated at 5pm GMT.

Amid the speculation over sabotage, suspicion immediately turned to potential culprits – with fingers pointed at Russia, whose pipelines were hit, suggesting a further weaponisation of energy supplies to Europe in the midst of the conflict in Ukraine. Not least it was seen as a possible message about the vulnerability of other marine gas infrastructure.

“There are some indications that it is deliberate damage. You have to ask: Who would profit?” one European security source told Reuters. The Danish prime minister said sabotage could not be excluded. Poland’s foreign minister was more forthright, suggesting that the damage could be an act of provocation on behalf of the Kremlin.

Meanwhile the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, called the news “very concerning” and said that “no option can be ruled out right now”, including sabotage.

The steel pipe itself has a wall of 4.1 cm (1.6 inches) and is coated with steel-reinforced concrete up to 11cm thick. Each section of the pipe weighs 11 tonnes, which goes to 24-25 tonnes after the concrete is applied.

British sources said they believed it may not be possible to determine what occurred with certainty.

One UK insider speculated that any explosions were unlikely to have been caused by a submarine or underwater vehicle, because their presence would have been detected in the relatively shallow Baltic waters. Sections of the pipelines are between 80 metres and 110 metres deep.

The day of drama began when the Danish energy agency said it had found the leaks on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline north-east of the island of Bornholm, and a third in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Swedish waters south-east of the island. “This is not a small crack. It’s a really big hole,” the energy agency said.

Underlining the significance of the event, Javier Blas, an energy and commodities commentator for Bloomberg, described the undersea gas pipelines in the region as one of Europe’s most important strategic assets. “The subsea pipelines linking the North Sea gas fields, and then Norway with the rest of the continent and the UK are among the most strategic assets right now for Europe. High time for maximum protection. Cyber-attacks against energy assets are, too, a key risk for Europe,” Blas tweeted.

A five-mile exclusion zone for shipping has been set up around Bornholm, and flights below 1,000 metres have been banned in the area. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, partially dissolves in water, is not toxic and creates no hazard when inhaled in limited quantities.

“Breakage of gas pipelines is extremely rare”, Danish authorities said in a statement. “Therefore we see reason to raise the preparedness level as a result of the incidents we have seen over the past 24 hours.”

Nord Stream AG, the pipeline operator, had on Monday morning reported an unexpected overnight drop of pressure from 105 to 7 bar in Nord Stream 2, which is filled with gas but was cancelled by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A further drop of pressure was reported on Monday afternoon in Nord Stream 1, which Russia shut down indefinitely at the start of September, initially saying it needed repairs.

Since no gas has flowed through either of the pipelines since the start of the month, German authorities have been quick to reassure people that the leaks will not affect its plan to fill gas storage tanks in time for winter.

Environmental NGOs said the leaks were likely to cause large-scale damage to the environment. “As soon as methane in gas form raises from the surface of the sea into the atmosphere, it will massively contribute to the greenhouse effect,” said Sascha Müller-Kraenner of the pressure group Environmental Action Germany.
Note: This report was previously posted in the ongoing "What is a 'Blood in the Streets' Moment?" thread. It's being posted here for those who may not be following that particular thread.

Comments

  • There are all kinds of speculations on Twitter.

    Could be Russia to get out of any contract obligations.

    Could be the US - there are videos circulating of Biden threatening NS1 & NS2 in Feb 2022 and other US spokesmen issuing statements on NS.

    One may rule out accidents occurring in 3 different spots in quick succession. The deep sea action against concrete-reinforced thick-metal pipes may also be beyond the capabilities of terrorists.
  • @yogibearbull-

    This is total speculation, but I have to wonder if Russia may not be responsible for this. They had already shut off the gas supply, but retained the "carrot" of possibly restoring delivery. Now, that ability has been removed- Russia no longer has control over the situation.

    This one is very interesting.
  • "They had already shut off the gas supply."

    I thought so too. Is there any explanation for the massive gushing out of gas if already shut off and what is the potential extent of leak if left unrepaired?

    In peace time, this can be repaired / restored within a reasonable time. I hope they can figure out quickly how to prevent any further damage to the environment / sea.
  • From what I understand, even idle natural gas pipelines under sea-water are kept pressurized. May be not to full pressure. Otherwise, any leaks will cause salt water to slowly seep into the pipes.
  • edited September 2022
    It seems highly improbable for three pipeline leaks to occur in quick succession.
    Taking into account the current situation in Europe, I would suspect sabotage.
    To echo what the European security source asked Reuters: Who would profit?
  • Tough to pinpoint. Germany is now buying LPN from the Middle East.
    https://al-monitor.com/originals/2022/09/uae-agrees-supply-germany-gas-diesel-scholz-tours-gulf

    Natural gas price went up today accordingly. US and Canada potentially can supply Europe too. US lost some capacity from the explosion at Freeport, TX.
  • Whoever is responsible for the damage may be trying to create confusion or chaos, as opposed to trying to exact an economic advantage. I believe Russia gained more by injecting uncertainty, doubt, and the possibility of fraud into the minds of gullible Americans regarding the 2016 and subsequent elections rather than what it may have gained from Trump's election itself. Trump has benefited greatly from such Russian interference because its effect is to erode our democratic standards and institutions. From chaos and instability tyrants emerge.
  • Well-stated!
  • Although I assume this is understood, I think it's important not to confuse Russia as a nation and people with Putin and his regime. I don't think the Russian people have benefited from this war or this sabotage or even from a tyrant emerging here and the potential failure of our democracy. It increases the likelihood of complete global destruction and more suffering for an already suffering Russian people who are now watching their kids get drafted into Putin's stupid ego war. One can only pray they have the strength to eventually overcome him.
  • That’s a good point, @LewisBraham. I might better have said that Putin and his cronies are those in Russia who stand to benefit from discord in democratic countries.
  • Bill Browder. RED NOTICE.
    https://www.amazon.com/Red-Notice-Finance-Murder-Justice/dp/1476755744

    Browder:
    https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Freezing-Order/Bill-Browder/9781982153281

    Anne Garrels:
    https://www.amazon.com/Putin-Country-Journey-into-Russia/dp/1250118115

    The current Russian regime is a mafia-ocracy. it did not have to be that way. Decisions were made. The Poot-butt had a lot to do with it.
  • Just like the suck-hole named Saddam Hussein. Blowing up oil wells. No regard for anything or anyone but himself. "The Mother of All Assholes."
  • Yeah, I had read that WPo commentary. For the life of me I can't figure out why Fox, Trump, or any public figure would suck up to Russia and Putin. What the hell's in it for them? Why aren't they being loudly called out as Commie simps? If there were Democrats saying those things they would be crucified by the Republican leadership and media, and rightly so.
Sign In or Register to comment.