B. Ackman says stocks maybe good buys soon

johnN

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-says-stocks-will-soon-be-a-buy-now-that-the-fed-is-doing-what-it-has-to-do-to-fight-inflation-11662474823?mod=home-page

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/bill-ackman-outlines-when-the-buy-signal-for-stocks-will-come.html

Pershing Square Capital Management’s billionaire founder Bill Ackman shared some commentary about markets and the U.S. economy. Ackman: ‘Once people realize the Fed doesn’t have to keep increasing rates and will soon take rates down…that will be a buy signal for markets’

Ackman expects inflation to fall to 4%, if not 3.5%, from a peak of 9.1% in June. “Our biggest fear was inflation, and that’s why we wanted the Fed to raise interest rates,” he says. Once investors recognize the Fed as winning its battle against inflation, Ackman expects stocks to rebound.

As of the end of June, Pershing Square’s portfolio consisted of concentrated bets on Lowes Inc. and NFLX. The S&P 500 SPX, NFLX, and Lowes are among the stocks Ackman has bet on this year. Ackman said he hasn't changed much since the beginning of the year.***

Maybe good insights from Mr Ackman
9.13 maybe key date w CPI data, if improve fundamentals improve going forward

Right now I am sidelines waiting few wks months for now

Late fall mid winters maybe good time if Feds may start pivot /ease Qt

Crash

Granted, there's probably a difference between what the Fed says publicly and what they tell each other. But the Fed is still in aggressive mode. I can't imagine any decent improvement in my portfolio until the middle of next year, earliest. As Ron Baron says: one's investing timeline needs to be.... pretty much infinite. THEN, you're not constrained or nervous about what happens each day. I do like to spend time here and with the Markets, though. Retirement agrees with me, VERY much.

Junkster

For those like myself who are into breadth thrusts market action has been disappointing since the recent highs. Still the S@P is some 275 points above its June bear market lows. Bearishness is rampant again. We have two big events this month with the PPI next week and the Fed in two weeks. Either one could send stocks higher again. And by some measures it has become historically oversold the past few weeks.

I can talk politics because I dislike Biden almost as much as Trump who is the worst of the worst. But it is absolutely shocking to see polls showing the Dems may hold the House in November. Biden or whoever has done a masterful job coming back from the depths. Everything seems to be going the Dems way lately so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the market in strong rally mode between now and November for whatever reason. - inflation peaking, hints of a Fed pivoting, or whatever. Personally would love to see new and much deeper market lows but the market rarely accommodates my wishes,

Edit. FWIW, just saw this stat on Twitter from Michael Antonelli - the S@P has never been negative in the 12 months following a mid term election since 1946. That is 18 occurrences and an average yearly gain of 15.1%

BaluBalu

Markets like Washington gridlock but markets like even more decrease in societal chaos and increase in institutional stability.

hank

Generally, when I start running out of cash to throw at these things, they turn up. Running on less than a quarter tank now. (Enough for 2-3 more dumps.) We shall see!.

Old_Joe

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hank

Old_Joe said:

Seems to me that the Russians are doing everything in their power to ignite Ukraine, not the markets.

Yep - I’d already deleted my earlier reference to the war in the prior post. Apologies.

As I’d mentioned, I heard a market “pundit” (they’re “cheaper by the dozen” nowadays) recently speculate that a Ukrainian War peace agreement might stoke the markets. I find that hard to comprehend as well.

larryB

Mr Ackman talks and talks. Check out what Mr Lao Tzu says about that .

hank

I don’t think anybody should invest based on those kinds of projections - or even their own amateurish “macro” views. Know your risk tolerance. Have a plan in place before the jello hits the fan. Follow plan. I think it may be fun / entertaining to bat these various hypotheses around from time to time - depending on one’s tastes. But that’s all.

Have plan. Follow plan. Believe in yourself. Gosh … Kinda sounds like Annie doesn’t it?

WABAC

What did Ackman say in June?

I wouldn't think of buying anything now, unless I won the lottery.

johnN

Not sure if he say anything different
His portfolio has not changed since March... Also got caught as bag holders on ways down... Think he only traded nflix recently but sold out as loss

He maybe one of the cheer leaders trying propped market up\bulls fan