MFOHome About Commentary Discussions Funds The Best Resources Support Us!

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Sign In Register

Categories

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/22/22

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
For the week ending on 6/22/22, Sentiment remained extremely negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (59.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (18.2%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (22.5%; low); Bull-Bear Spread was -41.1% (very low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (more 50-75 bps hikes & QT); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (17+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down (sharply), gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=6&scrollTo=677

Comments

  • Edmond
    edited June 2022
    Juxtaposed against this contrarian indicator (i.e. "Bearish sentiments" = bullish price action), is a quarterly stat tracked by Fred.gov. As of Q1, corporate equities as a % of household wealth was still sitting quite high.

    Between the expressed AAII bearish sentiments and the apparent bullish positioning, it suggests to me we have a ways to go before we reach a capitulation bottom. -- My reading of virtually every domestic and EAFE index suggests the trend is still inexorably "down" (until its not).

    And then, of course, there is the Fed. -- The actual tightening has presumably only just begun (QT only commenced in June). To quote Marty Zweig: "don't fight the Fed".
Sign In or Register to comment.