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AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/22/22

For the week ending on 6/22/22, Sentiment remained extremely negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (59.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (18.2%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (22.5%; low); Bull-Bear Spread was -41.1% (very low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (more 50-75 bps hikes & QT); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (17+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down (sharply), gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=6&scrollTo=677

Comments

  • edited June 2022
    Juxtaposed against this contrarian indicator (i.e. "Bearish sentiments" = bullish price action), is a quarterly stat tracked by Fred.gov. As of Q1, corporate equities as a % of household wealth was still sitting quite high.

    Between the expressed AAII bearish sentiments and the apparent bullish positioning, it suggests to me we have a ways to go before we reach a capitulation bottom. -- My reading of virtually every domestic and EAFE index suggests the trend is still inexorably "down" (until its not).

    And then, of course, there is the Fed. -- The actual tightening has presumably only just begun (QT only commenced in June). To quote Marty Zweig: "don't fight the Fed".
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