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To dip or not ?

Derf
edited February 2022 in Other Investing
Futures for today looked bleak before opening. I'm guessing about 1% recovered after the opening.
I was thinking I'd be selling one of two value funds I hold at VG as it was getting close to my selling point of 25% profit. It has crossed this line a time or two, but I held out & the next day or two went back up.
Is this time different , with Mr Putin raising hell ?
Let me add , from viewing two other sites, it seems more than a few investors are sitting with a load of cash to deploy !
So it appears it's the smart money vs the d..... money ?!

Have a good one, Derf

Comments

  • hank
    edited February 2022
    From Twain’s Huckleberry Finn - “To be, or not to be; that is the bare bodkin
    That makes calamity of so long life.”

    Dunno. Somebody smarter than me will need to answer your question. Nice going - up 25% on your value investment. ISTM valuations are steep, but that’s just gut feeling. I nibbled on DODEX putting in a small buy order at D&C today - a fund I’ve been thinking of adding. Fell over 3% today (good from my perspective).

    Hope somebody else can answer your question. World events make investing feel unimportant at the moment …
  • MikeW
    Hey @Hank. Funny that you
    Mention DODEX because I was just looking at that too. EM has underperformed for so long that it seems there should be some opportunities there. I really like the D&C thoughtful approach too. Plus it doesn’t have the huge assets of their other funds. I need to read up more on this one but it looks interesting. I might trim/sell MIOPX in order to add this one
  • MarkMark
    I'm not going to lie I did some buying on Wednesday's meltdown. I didn't buy much but I added to funds that seemed to be caught in the selling crosshairs for no reason other than folks were selling everything. I added to SCHD, CDC and DIVO not at the lows but close enough. These funds don't fluctuate much as a rule and to see them drop just seemed to provide an on sale opportunity. We'll see. If they drop some more I'll probably add some more. Oh, CDC and DIVO provide monthly dividends so I'll be continuing to reinvest those distributions. Today I also added to QQQX an option writing tech CEF. It rarely sells at a discount and I believe tech will come around again.
  • hank
    edited February 2022
    Gosh. I’d expect the dippers to be out in force today. DJI is off over 400 at 1:30. Putin’s threatening to nuke somebody. How much better does it get? (pardon the sarcasm).

    I’m not moving, although I revamped my model a week ago which resulted in a tad bit more risk across the board and less fixed income overall.

    LINK should pull up an article summarizing the recent Dow highs. The record close was actually reached only 1-2 months ago in early January.

    “The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow) is an index of the 30 top-performing U.S. companies. The most recent all-time-high record (as of this writing) was on Jan. 4, 2022, when it closed at 36,799.65.”

    As of the moment, the Dow sits at 33,676 - down about 1% for the day - but more than 3,000 points from the earlier high. So, where have all the dippers gone? Long time passing …


    image
  • MarkMark
    edited March 2022
    Prices are still above what I just paid a few days ago @hank. I can wait.

    Edit to add: Aw shucks, I knew (or at least felt like) I should have added to my TGT position but it's already a large % of my portfolio. Honestly I can never (rarely) get these right so I'm probably better off not taking a chance. Today (3/1) I'm wondering if I should dispose of my energy position or is Giroux too early. I do favor the alt-energy space for the long term.
  • johnNjohnN
    Got more GUSH UEC BITO
    friends bought DFEN


    extremely short plays fyi
  • hank
    edited March 2022
    Mark said:

    Prices are still above what I just paid a few days ago @hank. I can wait.

    Edit to add: Aw shucks, I knew (or at least felt like) I should have added to my TGT position but it's already a large % of my portfolio. Honestly I can never (rarely) get these right so I'm probably better off not taking a chance. Today (3/1) I'm wondering if I should dispose of my energy position or is Giroux too early. I do favor the alt-energy space for the long term.

    Well, I swore off energy plays a year or more ago having found them a hard row to hoe in the past. Obviously, I missed out on the bonanza - although my allocation funds do hold energy. Remember back when (1) the world wasn’t going to need as much oil in the future and (2) fracking had made for nearly unlimited supplies and was profitable at $50 bbl - less than half today’s price?
  • Sven
    Fear has driven crude oil to exceed $101.85/barrel today. Other exporters will take advantages to supply Europe. US imports majority of oil from Canada and much less dependent of Middle East as in the past.

    My small stake in alternate energy had stalled and declining. Still believe it willl gain traction as windmills and solar panels are widely adopted in the northwest.
  • MarkMark
    I do remember that energy scenario. Today there are some who opine that one of Putin's primary drivers for his invasion of Ukraine was done with consideration of strengthening Russia’s grip on European energy supplies and the attendant flow of cash into his private stash. Is your nation sufficiently insulated from fossil fuels supplied by a tyrant?
  • hank
    edited March 2022
    My latest adventure is into Y (Allegheny Corp). A conglomerate - mostly insurance. It’s getting hit by the fall in long term rates this week. I’m guessing that’s because they can’t invest their cash at as high a rate of return. I bit off another piece this morning at $645 p/s. Guess that makes me officially a “dipper”.
  • hank
    edited March 2022
    Mark said:

    ”I do remember that energy scenario. Today there are some who opine that one of Putin's primary drivers for his invasion of Ukraine was done with consideration of strengthening Russia’s grip on European energy supplies and the attendant flow of cash into his private stash. Is your nation sufficiently insulated from fossil fuels supplied by a tyrant?”

    I never fully understood that reliance on Russian energy. Tough spot for Europe. Not long ago Putin was perceived as “friendly” - if not a friend of the U.S. . GWB “looked into his eyes” and saw trust. I heard him speak fluent English on U.S. cable news shows and thought him a “square shooter.” The U.S. government (several Administrations) trusted Russia enough to build & operate the ISS together. There’s a crew of Russians, Europeans and Americans aboard at this moment. (addressed in the OT section).
  • Sven
    edited March 2022
    GWB made an error on trusting the former KGB agent who pined for the good old days. Russia is close enough to supply oil and gas to Europe. Transporting these fuels is the bottleneck of the business, either through pipelines or tanker ships. Mark mentioned that Russia and China signed a 10 years deal to supply gas on pipelines yet-to-build through Siberia. Distance and climate themselves pose considerable challenges. The Alaska pipeline was build with great expense in the 70’s and this proposed deal is much more difficult that take many years. Similar deal was made with India where the pipelines will be build over the Himalayan mountains. Neither projects can be completed several years from now. In the meantime where can Russia sell their oil and gas that they desperately need the cash flow? The gas pipeline to Germany built under the North Sea is much more feasible.
  • johnNjohnN
    Snow ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ bombed after hr missed ER
    Could be good hold long term
  • hank
    edited March 2022
    I’ll toss out a couple appetizing candidates if anyone is inclined to take a dunking. ARKK is off 48.9% year over year and down a bit over 4% today. DKNG must be off something like 70% year over year and is a couple bucks over it’s recent bottom at around $21.00 - off 8% today. Re the latter, I developed dizziness trying to hang on to it and sold out few weeks back. The water sure looks tempting now. But I’ve too many irons in the fire. Somebody else will need to take the swim.
  • Derf
    @hank : So you've been dipping & not telling, "to many irons in the fire" !? ARKK does look interesting being off that much. I'm more or less caught in the headlights !!
    Flip the switch please, Derf
  • hank
    edited March 2022
    Hi Derf,

    With about 22 holdings (mainly funds) I’ve more than enough. Only own 3 stocks: RIO, Y, WPM. The first 2 are pretty conservative companies with strong balance sheets. As far as I know, so is the third. So I sleep well and pay little heed to them.

    On the contrary, both ARKK and DKNG resemble “loose & loaded cannons” ready to fire in any direction at any moment. I suspect a lot of $$ will be made in them - but lack the patience to own either. They’d also be fun to trade in and out of - grabbing off quick 5-10% gains every few weeks. Of course, there’s no guarantee. I’ll leave it to the younger ones here to mess with them. Thrills and chills …

    Not much dipping here. In fact, I’ve placed a sign over the portfolio tracker keyboard reading “Do Not Touch“ - just to make sure I don’t mess with anything.:)

    Thanks for the interesting thread!
  • Derf
    @hank : Thank you . Sometimes the light goes on, sometimes not . I like your idea of posting a sign(s).
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