Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Crypto advocates point out that Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% eight times since its 2009 launch, and three times since 2018, and it’s recovered every time. And it’s been a top-performing asset class with better than 35% annualized returns over the last three and five-year periods and 80% annualized returns over ten years. In addition, an entire crypto industry has developed, which is expanding rapidly and being widely accepted by Wall Street, businesses, and some governments.
This week’s guest is a believer. He is Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer and former Global Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, a cryptocurrency asset manager founded in 2017.
I began the interview by asking Hougan about the role crypto assets play in a portfolio, considering they act like stocks.
Munger may be right to not own it, (I have no strong feelings on crypto, either way) but its strange that people such as Mr. Munger, who have thrived from free market capitalism, seem OK having the govt ban the buying/selling of things by other people.
Meanwhile, Mr. Munger dumped a lot of money into BABA --- which the Chi-coms use to spy on their own people.
Perhaps Mr. Munger, we should invite the govt to limit where you can allocate your money?
Our guest is David Rosenberg, President, Chief Economist, and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research which he founded in January 2020. High inflation is at the top of the Federal Reserve’s, Washington's, and Wall Street’s list. Rosenberg says they are looking at the wrong numbers and that disinflation is already taking hold. Interest rates are expected to go higher for longer. Rosenberg cites evidence of economic slowing which will require easing sooner than expected. As I just mentioned, the likelihood of recession is still being debated. Rosenberg is forecasting a recession this year.
Great interview w/ D.R. ... such a data hound. I was just asking myself this week why I'm not buying at least a modest stake in 2y T's. For a balance of yield and early-ish maturity, they look like a pretty good deal now, but maybe a little better after one more Fed hike, as Dave R. said.
Meanwhile, 10y & 30y T yields are already moving down. Base investment case may be to (cautiously) buy the price dips.
This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is a well-known value manager known for her global and international investing. We’ll be joined by Sarah Ketterer, Chief Executive Officer of Causeway Capital Management. Ketterer will tell us why she believes we are entering a new investment era and discuss some of the “outstanding” investment opportunities being created in the process.
On this week’s program, we will be joined by Robert Horrocks, Ph.D. and Chief Investment Officer of Matthews Asia, one of the first American mutual funds to focus solely on the region.
Horrocks will bring us up to speed on China’s economy and markets and the other Asian markets he deems worthy of our attention. Of particular interest to me is how to invest in this fast-growing region while minimizing China’s powerful political risks.
I recall his appearance on Wall Street Week with Lewis Rukeyser after he'd just won Morningstar's Manager of the Year award, many years ago. I had a monstrously bad experience over the phone with another of the fund managers and pulled my money. Asia's not been a great place to invest in several years, anyhow.
Seafarer's Andrew Foster, a former fund manager, is far better communicating with their investors than that of Matthews Asia. In addition, Matthews Asia is having a number experienced managers leaving for elsewhere, and that is not good.
Maybe it will be worth checking out the Seafarer website for the posted info. I owned the original Seafarer fund, years ago. I was disappointed by it after some years, and moved out of it.
Other folks here including Professor Snowball has written about Andrew Foster. By nature SIGIX is not an aggressive EM fund and it deviates from its EM benchmark (i.e. Spliced Emerging Markets Index) which which contains 37% exposure to China. It is the downside protection that I am seeking when investing in this volatile asset class such as this year.
Maybe it will be worth checking out the Seafarer website for the posted info. I owned the original Seafarer fund, years ago. I was disappointed by it after some years, and moved out of it.
I also owned SIGIX several years ago. This fund is performing well (on a relative basis) this year compared to other EM funds. Andrew Foster is a gifted communicator and his commentaries on the Seafarer website are worth reading. During the past few years I have not owned any dedicated EM funds and have delegated EM security selection to my foreign fund managers.
USD is strong this year and it posted challenges to oversea investing. Yes, my EM exposure was reduced considerably since COVID pandemic. Most are focus on the more conservative int’l value funds.
Soon-to-be retirees and retirees are the most vulnerable in this new era of higher inflation, interest rates, volatile markets, and possible recession. What kinds of adjustments should they be making in their financial plans, investments, and even lifestyles?
That demographic is one of the specialties of this week’s guest, an award-winning financial planner. He is Mark Cortazzo, Senior Vice President and Financial Advisor with the Wealth Enhancement Group, an independent financial planning firm.
Making money by losing less is how legendary small-cap value manager Charlie Dreifus has succeeded for over 50 years of investing. It’s even more important now as he expects more economic and market pain ahead.
Realistic, I think. But one of his points is that stocks will underperform---- because they have over-performed for many years. Action, then Reaction. Then reversion to the Mean. 1,2,3.
"Not many stocks yield more than 3.2%." Huh? Did I just not hear him correctly? I went back and re-played it. I heard correctly. Does he have small-caps in mind? I dunno, but that statement is just incorrect. Erroneous. Right now, I own just three (3) single stocks. All of them yield well over 3.2%. ...I do not think it would be hard to find a great many others. I can certainly see his macro case. (I studied Hegel back in school!)
"Income (vs. cap gains) will be more important, going forward," for some time to come.
global value investor Tom Russo says today’s investment environment is the most challenging of his 40-year career. He explains why his core companies are up to the challenge.
Comments
Meanwhile, Mr. Munger dumped a lot of money into BABA --- which the Chi-coms use to spy on their own people.
Perhaps Mr. Munger, we should invite the govt to limit where you can allocate your money?
Meanwhile, 10y & 30y T yields are already moving down. Base investment case may be to (cautiously) buy the price dips.
David Rosenberg so much knowledge
Seafarer's website has a wealth of information on emerging market, especially Asia. Seafarer funds still invest in China, but they avoid the big tech names.
https://seafarerfunds.com/prevailing-winds/fixing-chinas-broken-balance-sheets/
This fund is performing well (on a relative basis) this year compared to other EM funds.
Andrew Foster is a gifted communicator and his commentaries on the Seafarer website
are worth reading. During the past few years I have not owned any dedicated EM funds
and have delegated EM security selection to my foreign fund managers.
"Not many stocks yield more than 3.2%." Huh? Did I just not hear him correctly? I went back and re-played it. I heard correctly. Does he have small-caps in mind? I dunno, but that statement is just incorrect. Erroneous. Right now, I own just three (3) single stocks. All of them yield well over 3.2%. ...I do not think it would be hard to find a great many others. I can certainly see his macro case. (I studied Hegel back in school!)
"Income (vs. cap gains) will be more important, going forward," for some time to come.
IQDG..... Hmmmmm. I took a look. Where does he see an 8% yield? I find 4.7%.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/etf/IQDG
THANK YOU, @bee.
I think you are correct. Episode appear this week, but first aired in early July.