Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"Course, I don't know. But, a bit more RED this morning in many areas and places than has been the norm lately. Still a lot of money wanting to find a home, so perhaps just a short term break.
I’ve thought for awhile that commodities have gotten ahead of themselves. I’m guessing the Robinhood crowd has latched on to NYMEX futures, which have seemed to defy gravity recently.
Most commodities - notably copper and lumber - have turned sharply lower in recent days. WSJ reports that China is unloading stockpiles of aluminum, copper and other metals in an attempt to drive down commodity prices which threaten their economy.
Gold’s getting clocked today, off about $30, and silver doing worse off about 5%. The gold bugs are relentless. I kind of feel for them as it’s almost a religion with them. In the long run I think they’ll be right. But their portfolios must be suffering - unless they’re better market timers than I suppose.
The Fed was “out of character” yesterday in hinting at rising rates and their seeming recognition of greater inflation now than welcome. I suspect it’s more bluster than anything. But bonds retreated a bit on the news. (And the dollar strengthened dramatically). My very short-term TIPS fund (TLDTX) lost .50% yesterday - biggest swing I can remember. I suspect folks may be waking up to the fact that TIPS are wildly overbought.
Recently added a small amount of FXF as a play on a weakening dollar longer term. Fits well into my real assets sleeve. But getting dinged a bit in wake of the Fed’s latest shot over the bow. Overall, I’ve been lightening up on the natural resource / commodities sectors most of the year - some of those type funds up in excess of 50-60% year-over-year.
(Above constitutes MHO, and not intended to be investment advice.)
I’ve thought for awhile that commodities have gotten ahead of themselves. The Fed was “out of character” yesterday in hinting at rising rates and their seeming recognition of greater inflation now than welcome.
Agree with both your statements @hank. I believe the term is called "buy the rumor, sell the news". Prices in commodities have been run up on inflation rumor. The FEDs recognition is the news.
I hold a broad basket commodity ETF, DBC, a little gold and a very small bet on a copper ETF. DBC and IAU have done well for me because of when I bought them. Copper I bought late and is down from where I bought. I intend to hold all throughout this year. Also have a little in an inverse dollar ETF, UDN. All of these together comprise my inflation hedge bet. I think the Federal Gov would like to see higher (controlled) inflation and will act to make that happen. Don't fight the Fed!
Quadruple witching, occurs on the third Friday of the month of every quarter, in March, June, September, and December, and refers to the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, and stock-index options and stock-futures.
Is the Fed backstop really dissolving? Does the US equity market finally come back down to earth in 3Q 2021? Could be a sizzling hot summer, boys and girls.
Here is the 11 sectors performance of the SP500, SPY or closely related indexes. The numbers are close enough for government work and my weekly work. One can view the sectors that dinged this area this week. YTD performance prior to this week, had also benefited from the large upward moves in energy and a few other sectors....but where the areas loosing this week.
I.G., investment grade bonds, and long term bonds helped funds holding these for the week.
The wild riders in the long term bond areas showed the directions by weeks end: --- TBT is a choice for levered bets on rising interest rates. Using a combination of swaps and futures, TBT gives investors -2x exposure to daily moves in T-bonds with more than 20 years left to maturity. ... As a levered product, TBT is not a buy-and-hold ETF, it's a short-term tactical instrument. --- TMF provides daily leveraged (3x) exposure to the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, falling yields/rates.
Forgot to add this multi sector ETF performance graphic; which provides various performance periods for popular ETF's. A decent site to keep for future reference, which updates through the trading day.
Bad week, yes. This past week is the reason I'm overweight bonds: 54% of portfolio. I'm down -1% just on Th and Fri combined. And yet, in percentage terms, that feels like nothing at all. I still don't like it. But hey! It's a MARKET, dummy! That's what I tell myself.
Comments
Most commodities - notably copper and lumber - have turned sharply lower in recent days. WSJ reports that China is unloading stockpiles of aluminum, copper and other metals in an attempt to drive down commodity prices which threaten their economy.
Gold’s getting clocked today, off about $30, and silver doing worse off about 5%. The gold bugs are relentless. I kind of feel for them as it’s almost a religion with them. In the long run I think they’ll be right. But their portfolios must be suffering - unless they’re better market timers than I suppose.
The Fed was “out of character” yesterday in hinting at rising rates and their seeming recognition of greater inflation now than welcome. I suspect it’s more bluster than anything. But bonds retreated a bit on the news. (And the dollar strengthened dramatically). My very short-term TIPS fund (TLDTX) lost .50% yesterday - biggest swing I can remember. I suspect folks may be waking up to the fact that TIPS are wildly overbought.
Recently added a small amount of FXF as a play on a weakening dollar longer term. Fits well into my real assets sleeve. But getting dinged a bit in wake of the Fed’s latest shot over the bow. Overall, I’ve been lightening up on the natural resource / commodities sectors most of the year - some of those type funds up in excess of 50-60% year-over-year.
(Above constitutes MHO, and not intended to be investment advice.)
I hold a broad basket commodity ETF, DBC, a little gold and a very small bet on a copper ETF. DBC and IAU have done well for me because of when I bought them. Copper I bought late and is down from where I bought. I intend to hold all throughout this year. Also have a little in an inverse dollar ETF, UDN. All of these together comprise my inflation hedge bet. I think the Federal Gov would like to see higher (controlled) inflation and will act to make that happen. Don't fight the Fed!
Quadruple witching, occurs on the third Friday of the month of every quarter, in March, June, September, and December, and refers to the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, and stock-index options and stock-futures.
Is the Fed backstop really dissolving? Does the US equity market finally come back down to earth in 3Q 2021? Could be a sizzling hot summer, boys and girls.
June 18 close data.
Here is the 11 sectors performance of the SP500, SPY or closely related indexes. The numbers are close enough for government work and my weekly work.
One can view the sectors that dinged this area this week.
YTD performance prior to this week, had also benefited from the large upward moves in energy and a few other sectors....but where the areas loosing this week.
I.G., investment grade bonds, and long term bonds helped funds holding these for the week.
The wild riders in the long term bond areas showed the directions by weeks end:
--- TBT is a choice for levered bets on rising interest rates. Using a combination of swaps and futures, TBT gives investors -2x exposure to daily moves in T-bonds with more than 20 years left to maturity. ... As a levered product, TBT is not a buy-and-hold ETF, it's a short-term tactical instrument.
--- TMF provides daily leveraged (3x) exposure to the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, falling yields/rates.
For the week: TBT = -4.7%, while TMF = +7%
A decent site to keep for future reference, which updates through the trading day.
LINK
Enjoy Fathers Day, Derf