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Article:Tim Knight, a permabear, wrote this morning, we have hit 7/7 for Ray Dalio’s metrics for bubbles.
The day of reckoning for business verticals like commercial real estate hasn’t happened yet. Everything has been artificially propped up by government spending, stimulus, and the like. The stock market is up 100% since last March. That cannot go on. The old adage was when you heard stock tips from your shoeshine guy, sell. Or, as Peter Lynch used to say, if he was shopping at a mall and heard everyone talking about the stock market, it was time to sell.
I suspect in April when we have herd immunity and more people get the vaccine for Covid, the cracks in the egg will become a bit more severe. Remember, buy on rumor, sell on fact.
https://slopeofhope.comI’ll say one general thing, however: in spite of my growing interest in crypto, and the cool stuff I’m doing with the data (like CryptoStream, shown below), the real “canary in the coal mine” is going to be Bitcoin. Hear me now and believe me later: if and when this crypto mania ends, ALL assets are going to get destroyed. The reason? Because the fever will have finally broken. People will finally realize they have gone stark raving mad, and they will choose to no longer do so. Promise.
im-in-the-maniaTo me, all the questions are a sideshow to the main story here which is the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum. As long as these are rocking, nobody is going to worry about overpaying for NFTs. But Bitcoin has a history of crashing, so if and when that happens, then we’ll really see what these things are made of.