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MFO Premium Webinar: Guest Lynn Bolin and Back To Basics
First session will feature my colleague Lynn Bolin, who contributes regularly to Mutual Fund Observer and Seeking Alpha. Second session will be overview.
Lynn, thanks again. Do you have any thoughts on sites/software that are particularly useful to aggregate portfolio's asset allocation? TRP and Fidelity have strenths and weaknesses(my Mom's primary accounts). Just wondering what your opinion is on the ones you may have used. I'd be interested in Charles' and David's thoughts too. Any higher yielding CEFs look reasonable for a sliver of a retiree's portfolio. TAIL, SWAN getting more attractive? Or less? REALLY looking forward to the seminar! Best to the MFO and Premium team.
Mike, I like MFO's Portfolio Tool for the metrics. I use Fidelity's because it it quick and combines funds held elsewhere. Morningstar's has some neat features, but I haven't used it in a while. The December data is available on MFO. I uploaded them into my Ranking System. Here are some of the defensive funds that I own or have written about recently. Over the past few months I sold or reduced holdings in SWAN, DRSK, IAU, and TAIL. I will cover the December Rankings in the Webinar.
Thx so much @lynnbolin2021 and @Charles. Very informative and I learned alot. Im going to study the charts a bit more and follow up with questions if thats ok.
Thanks for setting up the Webinar @Charles and to those who joined in. Explaining how the systems works and what it means makes me think things through. As I mentioned, I just set up the three trending buckets. Since the Webinar, I realized that I need to fine tune them. Here are the recent changes that I made:
Trending Bucket The Trending Bucket did a good job of showing the funds that have high 3 month trends, 3 month returns, and cash inflows, but I would buy the funds because "I was late to the party." I changed the Trending Bucket to only show funds that were less than 7 points above their 10 month moving average. Upon due diligence, these would be worth considering by some investors.
Crossing Bucket I simplified this bucket and fine tuned it to be based more on three month trends to better identify trending funds that are near their ten month moving average. As I pointed out in the Webinar I have owned VGWAX and VEUSX since the 2020 market correction and the adjustments identify these funds. The funds crossing their ten month moving average are value and global funds.
Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10 Vanguard Windsor Inv, (VWNDX), -28.1, 18.4, 23, 9.5, 10.6, 0.6 American Funds Capital Income Builder F1, (CIBFX), -15.5, 10, 9.5, 5.1, 3.2, 0 Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral, (VGWAX), -15.6, 14.6, 10, 5.1, 6.9, 1.9 Nuance Mid Cap Value Inst, (NMVLX), -19.2, 17.1, 15.3, 5.5, 1, 1.7 Vanguard European Stock Index Admiral, (VEUSX), -25.7, 15, 16.4, 9.3, 11.3, 0
Bottom Fishing Bucket
The Bottom Fishing Bucket is where I made the most changes. I added that the funds must not only have positive 3 month trends, returns, and money inflows, but added that the trends have to beat some percentage of the median trend and inflow and now look for the ones furthest below the ten month moving average. Of the funds that I track, real estate is showing the biggest signs of recovering.
Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10 American Century NT Global Real Estate G, (ANRHX), -22.7, 14.8, 9.6, 5.5, 3.2, -6.1 Cohen & Steers Realty Shares Inc L, (CSRSX), -23.7, 13.6, 8.6, 4.9, 5.1, -6.5 Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF, (VNQ), -25, 10.8, 9.2, 5.1, 5.6, -7.8 BlackRock iShares US Real Estate ETF, (IYR), -25.6, 10.2, 8, 4.5, 12, -8.2 Virtus Duff & Phelps Global Real Estate Secur, (VGISX), -25.7, 13.3, 13.4, 6.9, 1.5, -7.9
So I'm brand new to MFO and this afternoon session was exactly what I needed to evaluate MFO Premium. It walks me through the benefits. Awesome overview. Lynn's was also very good but I have a longer investment horizon and he's too smart for me (currently). Ha. But I aspire to be where he is with sorting and filtering in Excel. I'm now exploring why Drawdown Percentages are important to me. Interesting metric.
Comments
I have put together a presentation of topics. Is there anything in particular that you would like to hear about.
Name, Symbol, Lynn's Rank, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, Yield, SMA10
Aptus Defined Risk, (DRSK), 89.2, -3.1, 13.4, 0.2, 0.6, 4.5, 1.18, 5.3
KL Allocation Inst, (GAVIX), 82, -2, 17.2, 4.9, 3, -0.1, 2.16, 11.3
BlackRock iShares Gold, (IAU), 78.2, -10.3, 21.2, 0.2, 2.4, -0.5, 0, 12.6
T Rowe Price Multi-Strtgy Tot Rtrn, (TMSRX), 77.1, -4.7, 10.3, 4.6, 2, 9.5, 0.83, 4.5
Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treas Core, (SWAN), 62.4, -5, 19.4, 5.1, 3, 0.4, 0.35, 7.8
Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hdgd, (PHDG), 56.4, -6.2, 13.4, 0.3, 1.5, -0.1, 0.64, 14.6
Hussman Strategic Total Return, (HSTRX), 45.3, -2, 11.4, 0.4, 0.5, -1.7, 0.52, 8.7
ATAC Rotation Inv, (ATACX), 20.5, -8.1, 36.3, 16, 9.4, -4.4, 0.06, 29.1
Cambria Tail Risk ETF, (TAIL), 19, -14, -4.1, -5.1, -1.7, -7.1, 0.36, 3.3
As promised, here is link to chart deck. Will post video shortly.
Afternoon overview session starts in abut 30 minutes. Can still register here.
Trending Bucket
The Trending Bucket did a good job of showing the funds that have high 3 month trends, 3 month returns, and cash inflows, but I would buy the funds because "I was late to the party." I changed the Trending Bucket to only show funds that were less than 7 points above their 10 month moving average. Upon due diligence, these would be worth considering by some investors.
Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF, (ANGL), -14.1, 14.9, 9.5, 3.8, 8.5, 1.6
Vanguard Intern Div Appreciation Index ETF, (VIGI), -18.8, 20.9, 13.8, 7.4, 7.4, 5.3
Vanguard Intern Div Appreciation Index Admiral, (VIAAX), -18.8, 20.9, 13.8, 7.4, 7.4, 5.3
Vanguard ESG International Stock ETF, (VSGX), -22.9, 18.1, 16.1, 8, 11.5, 3.8
Nuveen ESG Small-Cap ETF, (NUSC), -30.8, 24.8, 29.3, 11.3, 9.4, 5.9
Crossing Bucket
I simplified this bucket and fine tuned it to be based more on three month trends to better identify trending funds that are near their ten month moving average. As I pointed out in the Webinar I have owned VGWAX and VEUSX since the 2020 market correction and the adjustments identify these funds. The funds crossing their ten month moving average are value and global funds.
Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
Vanguard Windsor Inv, (VWNDX), -28.1, 18.4, 23, 9.5, 10.6, 0.6
American Funds Capital Income Builder F1, (CIBFX), -15.5, 10, 9.5, 5.1, 3.2, 0
Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral, (VGWAX), -15.6, 14.6, 10, 5.1, 6.9, 1.9
Nuance Mid Cap Value Inst, (NMVLX), -19.2, 17.1, 15.3, 5.5, 1, 1.7
Vanguard European Stock Index Admiral, (VEUSX), -25.7, 15, 16.4, 9.3, 11.3, 0
Bottom Fishing Bucket
The Bottom Fishing Bucket is where I made the most changes. I added that the funds must not only have positive 3 month trends, returns, and money inflows, but added that the trends have to beat some percentage of the median trend and inflow and now look for the ones furthest below the ten month moving average. Of the funds that I track, real estate is showing the biggest signs of recovering.
Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
American Century NT Global Real Estate G, (ANRHX), -22.7, 14.8, 9.6, 5.5, 3.2, -6.1
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares Inc L, (CSRSX), -23.7, 13.6, 8.6, 4.9, 5.1, -6.5
Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF, (VNQ), -25, 10.8, 9.2, 5.1, 5.6, -7.8
BlackRock iShares US Real Estate ETF, (IYR), -25.6, 10.2, 8, 4.5, 12, -8.2
Virtus Duff & Phelps Global Real Estate Secur, (VGISX), -25.7, 13.3, 13.4, 6.9, 1.5, -7.9
Have a great weekend.
And attendant video.