U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last

davfor

Perhaps worthwhile for those interested in renewables...

The United States is on pace to install record amounts of wind and solar this year, underscoring America's capacity to build renewables at a level once considered impossible.

In the big picture, the amount of wind and solar deployed this year will need to be replicated in coming years.

This year's renewable energy expansion is driven in part by the expiration of the wind production tax credit and a decrease in the investment tax credit available to solar projects.

The potential for a renewable energy drop-off points to the need for a national clean electricity standard or some other policy to drive green investments

(Also) Much of the wind and solar development occurring this year is taking place in regions with large amounts of renewables already. Greening America's collection of regional electric grids will not only require an expansion of renewables into new regions, but more transmission to carry it to the areas where power is consumed.

https://scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-wind-and-solar-installation-are-smashing-records-but-the-trend-may-not-last/

Mark

All I can say is that my investments in this area have done far better than I imagined and social trends are certainly pointed in this direction. I hope it lasts.

davfor

Me too regarding hopes for the future. Regarding the recent trend in renewables, I initiated a position in TERP on 12/30/19 and made additional investments during Q1 of 2020. It was merged into BEPC during the summer. The return to date on that investment is 105% plus dividends. That jump will probably not be repeated in the near future, but I have no plans to sell. (The results of the upcoming election will partially shape the investment outlook going forward for the U.S.)

WABAC

I wish utilities in Arizona could figure out how to be solar friendly. We use most of our energy down here when the sun is shining. They seem slightly more sympathetic to centralized generation projects. Less so to decentralized, i.e., roof top installations.

Mark

@davfor - I'm curious, what made you chose Brookfield or was it just thrust on you with the merger? I'm a bit surprised that their geographic presence doesn't include Australia. I am using ICLN as my broad based fund. TAN would have been just as good but it's my individual holdings that have gone bonkers. Like you (I think) I have no intention of selling and I don't expect much in the way of further gains but I'm also not adding more at this time.

davfor

@Mark I was considering BEP, TERP, & HASI last fall. The depth and breadth of BEP interested me the most. (I also have an investment in BIPC (formerly BIP) and am comfortable with Brookfield.) But, BEP had rallied ~15% in the prior quarter and TERP had fallen ~15% (at least in part due to market reaction to a share offering). It just looked like a better entry point for TERP. And, in this case, it led me where I really wanted to wind up anyway. (Interesting note. BEPC is up 50% since it was created and BEP is "only" up 25% in that time per StockCharts. Is that simply the market's "no K-1" premium for that space?! Will it endure?)

davfor

@WABAC PNW is expanding it solar footprint. But, yes, Arizona regulators appear to be committed to centralized projects. Per M*'s writeup on PNW:

Current rates are based on a 10% ROE, above the average return in recent base rate decisions in the United States, and include time-of-use rates that should allow APS to manage rooftop solar generation more efficiently. In 2017, the ACC modified the rate structure for new rooftop solar installations that ended a generous net metering rate structure in 2018. We expect this change, population growth, and the strong Phoenix economy, to result in annual electricity sales growth approaching 2% through the next decade.

kings53man

U.S. Wind and Solar Installations-Trend May Not Last-I doubt that. Trillion $ companies are trying to become carbon neutral in 15-20 years. They don't rely on subsidies. Electric cars for the masses (Million Mile Battery) & new kid on the block Hydrogen - will be another one to watch for.

WABAC

davfor said:

@WABAC PNW is expanding it solar footprint. But, yes, Arizona regulators appear to be committed to centralized projects. Per M*'s writeup on PNW:

They certainly used to spend enough money to elect the regulators they wanted.

We shall see what the Arizona Corporate Commission looks like after this election.

We get our power from SRP, which is "government owned."

WABAC

kings53man said:

U.S. Wind and Solar Installations-Trend May Not Last-I doubt that. Trillion $ companies are trying to become carbon neutral in 15-20 years. They don't rely on subsidies. Electric cars for the masses (Million Mile Battery) & new kid on the block Hydrogen - will be another one to watch for.

Don't sink too much into lithium. Or batteries. Or Tesla.

https://www.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html

davfor

A 10 year global projection for deployment of additional renewable capacity for electricity:

Solar output is expected to lead a surge in renewable power supply in the next decade, the International Energy Agency said, with renewables seen accounting for 80% of growth in global electricity generation under current conditions.

In its annual World Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the IEA said in its central scenario - which reflects policy intentions and targets already announced - renewables are expected to overtake coal as the primary means of producing electricity by 2025.

The combined share of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind in global generation will rise to almost 30% in 2030 from 8% in 2019, it said, with solar PV capacity growing by an average 12% a year.

https://reuters.com/article/us-iea-energy-renewables-idUSKBN26Y0E7

kings53man

I really feel sorry for ICE Car manufacturers. They all have PLANS but no real products. I would have loved Toyota Rav4 Prime with 100 miles pure electric - but T is only planning to release 5000 for all USA with 42 miles pure electric - from a company which pioneered HYBRIDS long time ago. Reminder with all it's short comings, Tesla is going to be the next TRILLION $$$$ company.

davfor

Here is an article that suggests a blue wave election in November will probably move solar investments up further following the election. Some specific investment ideas are included.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/17-Trillion-Green-Energy-Spending-Spree-Could-Send-Solar-Stocks-Soaring.html