To balance out Jerome Powell’s struggle to boost inflation to 2% (see other post) I uncovered this reference to the world most of us actually reside in.
Excerpt: According to Random Length’s weekly report on North American forest products markets, the price of framing lumber topped $800 p/bdft last week. That’s a 130% increase since mid-April . The price last year was just $350 p/dbft. “According to my suppliers, we’ve seen a two almost two and a half times of cost increase,” Jeff Checko said, broker with The Ashton Real Estate Group. “You’re going to see impact in the delivered asking prices from builders and quoted pricing for custom homes and home renovation projects.”
The recent spike is causing the price of an average new single-family home to increase by $16,000 since late April, according to the National Association of Home Builders.“These builders that have these houses for $350,000-$550,000 – now instead of paying $30,000-$40,000 for their framing package – they’re spending $75,000-$90,000 for their framing package.https://www.wkrn.com/news/the-price-of-lumber-soars-to-unprecedented-level/
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https://kpic.com/news/local/wood-products-declared-essential-industry-by-us-government
A significant part of the problem is on the demand side, as reported in the story hank cited. “[People] are at home bored. They’re going to build an addition; fix something on their house; build a dec; redo this; or redo that,”
Yes, there's a decline in lumber mill production. A real shortage could have been readily addressed by a national policy prioritizing essential uses over adding residential decks.
As to the rising price of lumber itself, it is important to note that the story refers to framing lumber. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but that appears to be softwood or engineered wood.
So we're not talking about all lumber prices, just some materials. Hardwood prices have been dropping over the past year. (In the graph below, the labels apply to the matching color lines, not to the lines they appear to be pointing to, e.g. the CPI line is the gently sloped black line in the middle.)
https://yieldpro.com/2020/08/construction-material-prices-rise-on-higher-lumber-prices-2/
Extended Excerpt:
“Ever wonder what the difference is between softwoods and hardwoods? Contrary to their name, softwoods aren’t weaker than hardwoods. They do tend to grow quicker than hardwoods, and because of that, they are less dense. Softwood comes from coniferous trees (trees that keep their needles all year long). Some common types of softwoods are pines, spruces, cedars, and firs. These woods are also usually lighter colors.
Hardwoods, on the other hand, grow slower and produce a much denser wood, which is also heavier than softwoods. Hardwoods come from deciduous trees (trees that drop their leaves each year). Some commonly used types of hardwoods include walnut, maple, cherry, ash, and birch. Woodworkers tend to love working with hardwoods because of the wide variety of colors as well as the grain patterns and textures that make for beautiful and creative wooden furniture. These woods tend to have darker colors than softwoods.
Generally, in relation to furniture manufacturing, hardwoods are the better choice, because of their more dense structure. Not all hardwoods are equal; some are much denser than others, making them better suited to different applications. For example, hard maple is extremely hard, (hence the name!) and is often chosen for uses like flooring, because it can withstand the pressures it will undergo. Hard maple is nearly indestructible when it comes to everyday wear and tear, in comparison to something like pine, which would really take a beating.” Source
I also tried to find the relative volumes sold for hardwood vrs softwood but couldn’t. From experience I know that hardwood is great for furniture and applications where the wood is visible (ie a countertop) because it is usually prettier and stands up to wear better. Softwood is generally used for construction. One exception is the softwood, cedar, which is not only beautiful, but tends to resist rot and insects, hence used often in “cedar chests.” Decking is often cedar or a softwood like pine that’s been “pressure treated” with a rot-retardant chemical. As far as I know, that type of wood is not allowed for interior use due to potentially toxic vapors. As for firewood, hardwoods are far superior. Wood “density” is roughly proportional to heat content.
Only the most expensive furniture today is 100% hardwood. More often what you’ll buy or see is furniture constructed of softwood or a “wood product” covered with a thin layer of hardwood “veneer“ for outer appearance. The process involves turning an unprocessed hardwood log on a lathe, stripping the veneer in thin layers until the log is no longer usable. The remaining (perfectly round) logs are sometimes sold to enthusiastic homeowners for winter heat. These “cores” are prized (and more expensive) for their hardwood content, cleanliness, and generally high heat value. Once the bark has been stripped these “season” rather quickly, another feature of ready-to-burn firewood. By chance I happened upon a couple small loads of nice pole wood this summer - maybe 8-10 “face cords” in all. They will help keep the home toasty in January, February, March when the wind blows off ice-covered Lake Michigan.
The photo shows a large stash of pole wood. These have been run on a lathe and stripped of bark and outer layer of veneer. Notice how clean and perfectly round they appear.
"Wood products declared essential industry by US government (March 20th story)
https://kpic.com/news/local/wood-products-declared-essential-industry-by-us-government
They might have said it but the follow through was iffy at best according to several of my industry contacts. First, the declaration by Homeland Security was an advisory order at best. See: Essential Workers
Second, as the industry link you posted noted states and jurisdictions were free to classify what was essential or not and/or what might be included or not in the listing: ""Consequently, Roseburg’s Weed, Calif., veneer facility will continue to operate as part of our efforts to supply critical building products during the COVID-19 pandemic," RFP officials said. "Other states and other jurisdictions may develop their own lists of essential industries and workers who would be excluded from broad 'shelter in place' or similar quarantine orders.""
Those contacts I mentioned said that many of the plants were either shutdown or running at reduced capacity often because the loggers were sitting it out.
Exactly - one cannot say that on a national level any industry was declared essential or non-essential. Rather it was a state-by-state classification. However, it is worth noting that twenty states adopted the CISA guidelines intact.
Which raises the question of what you meant by saying that the construction industry was "deemed a non-essential industry". Deemed by whom? Certainly not all fifty states. https://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/covid-19-essential-workers-in-the-states.aspx
Here's a page that may be helpful, as it focuses specifically on the construction industry. It describes, state by state, what construction activities were considered essential, and in which parts of the states. It also includes links to the actual state orders between March and May.
https://www.jlconline.com/coronavirus-construction-limits-state-by-state-tracker
I don't doubt that "often ... the loggers were sitting it out." The question is why? Because they were not allowed to work ("deemed non-essential"), or because of their own health concerns, or for some other reasons?
Why didn’t enough workers report to the mills? Don’t know.
There are some industries that function that way. Think toilet paper. No inventory is kept because this is a product that takes up a lot of space relative to its value. Too costly for manufacturers to stock up in order to buffer fluctuations in demand.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Max 737. How many did Boeing stash in warehouses or wherever they keep them?
You write that there is nowhere to take the logs. The implication is that, like toilet paper (which coincidentally also comes from logs), there's little to no storage area for logs - neither where they are cut down nor at the mills to which they're delivered.
Of course, the mill is very noisy with many saws and finishing machines running all at once. Various finished wood products are sorted, stacked and stored indoors or outdoors to await pickup. Everything from construction lumber to railroad ties. Nothing goes to waste. Sawdust is picked up by area farmers for animal bedding. I don’t know what type wood goes into paper products. They are not produced at the mill, but quite likely the mill supplies pulp to another area facility that makes paper products, including Charmin tissue. That local company made local newscasts when the TP crisis struck. According to them , they had plenty of TP in their area warehouse. Just couldn’t get it to the stores fast enough to keep up with customers clearing off the store shelves. At one point, they were inviting people to drive in and buy from the warehouse.
PS - I’ve read since originally posting that after being cut, sometimes the logs are stored on site for brief periods before being loaded on trucks. Seriously, I doubt it’s for long. Probably has to do with proximity to proper loading equipment. BTW - Stay clear of those rigs on the roads. Loads have been known to break loose and crush nearby autos.
Re 737 - Storing aircraft for prolonged periods is an expensive proposition. Engines (and other components) need to be specially prepared for long term storage.
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Lumbering Along
It seems fair to say that uncertainty created by the pandemic is adversely affecting many industries, including this one. It's just that the "how" is complicated. https://www.observertoday.com/news/page-one/2020/08/some-supplies-in-high-demand-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic/
[NY's original essential business order, on March 20th, declared building materials retail stores essential businesses. As did NJ's original March 21st order. As did Conn.'s original March 22 order. The mills guessed wrong here.]
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/what-businesses-are-considered-essential-under-ny-workforce-reduction-order/2336886/
That's not to say that some construction wasn't curtailed. We had roof repairs done at the peak of the pandemic locally, but we would have been crazy to have pushed through our scheduled bathroom renovation at the time. Not that we would have been permitted to do so had we wanted to.
While hank's local mill keeps few if any logs stored, that's something else that seems to vary from place to place. Back in April, the LA Times wrote: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-16/tree-sitters-protest-logging-as-a-virus-lays-waste-to-the-timber-industry
I visited a discussion board sponsored by Forestry Forum while trying to verify my and Old Joe’s comments. Here’s what one dude said about how long logs could be stored without processing:
“Any hardwood especially during warm humid weather needs to be sawn, stickered and placed in a kiln within days of being logged. White Pine will turn blue and the bugs will feast.”
Here’s another’s take on the question:
“ I agree with Arkansawyer that logs can be held for very long times (years) if up off of ground... Exception is solfwoods and Pine especialy... ”
There seemed to be divergent opinions. Seems that pine is the worst for deteriorating. I frequently store firewood on cement slabs outdoors. It’s hardwood - most often red oak and ash. It really deteriorates over 6-12 months when exposed to the weather as it is. Moisture gets under the bark and the bugs love moisture. Crickets, beetles, worms. Fire-ants are the worst. They bite.
PS - Some varieties will “season on the stump.” That was the case with red elm which was wiped out by a disease 30-40 years back in this area. Unique to that tree, the bark would drop off naturally soon after the tree died. And upright, the standing trees could be harvested for excellent firewood years into the future.
*EDIT- I should mention that, unlike those logs in msf’s photo, firewood has been split open and cut to 16” lengths. That’s why it will keep near indefinitely indoors. But whole logs like those pictured, without being cracked open and covered in bark, are candidates for quick rot.
Enjoy your weekend, Derf