Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back

davfor

The US lets creative destruction determine the shape of the economy after it emerges from a crisis more than most developed economies. Will that help the US economy to prosper more in a post-covid19 world? And, will the US safety net perform well enough to be of substantial assistance during the transition? Just concerned and wondering.....

“This recession is unusual in the extent of permanent (job) reallocation that will ultimately result,” Davis said.

He and two co-authors have estimated that up to 40% of layoffs in March through May were permanent. That figure will likely rise, he said, the longer the pandemic squeezes the economy.

“We’re kind of past the stage where we’re quickly recalling workers to their old jobs,” Davis said, “and getting to the stage that people will need to get new jobs at new companies or in new industries.”

https://apnews.com/89992979ca3c3ba72eb2cd31a9ca0e5d

catch22

Howdy @davfor

I'll add this from my post in the Dodge & Cox EM thread:

"The market melt of 2008 brought us to the "this time is different", and we investors remain with this circumstance; except now, "this time is REALLY different", IMHO."

Old_Joe

Yes.

johnN

As the same concepts, not trying to cause any optimisms, seems many Usa workers /factories/ companies /refineries turned to COVID-19 driven Products [ppe, cleansed solutions priducts, medical supplies, masks, online social distancing platforms, more iPads/ laptops produced. Wonder what happen to these new lines producers once COVID-19 data improves and eventually everything scale back in 12 -24 months..

Another massive recessions/slow down?

Lots folks already loss jobs last 4 months and ~ 30s% of health care workers/ city govt officials /offices scale back hours or laid off/employees let go

hank

Doing more shopping online for staples like canned goods / detergents / dry packaged food products. But dang it. ... Many items the big chains refuse to ship (ie currently Ghardelli chocolates) and some of what they will ship (ie canned fruit) is priced 40-50% higher than in the company’s retail outlets. Most offer free shipping on orders over a certain amount. Not so much a complaint as an observation. Shipping direct to homes costs $$.

Price’s David Giroux ventured outside his normal investment mandate and added Amazon 2-3 years ago. How lucky can you get?

PS - I think this all relates to jobs - loosely. Some jobs are disappearing. Many others are simply moving. I don’t suppose FedX or UPS is laying off any workers.

Old_Joe

@hak- Does InstaCart service your area?

hank

Thanks for the tip OJ. Just checked. Unfortunately No. Walmart and Target do. Minimums are $25 and $35 respectively. Very fast shipping. Sometimes next day. But both are restricting more popular items to in-store purchase only. There’s a Costco in area. Super fast checkout! Low prices. But limited selection. Have ordered online from Costco as well (higher minimum). Not afraid to shop in stores as necessary. But safest to get in and get out - not linger indoors with crowds.

(This message has been resized to fit MFO posting standards.)

Derf

@hank: Are there no self checkouts at this store or don't you believe in using them ? Gal pal uses checkers, hoping to save a job! I take the path of least resistance.
Stay Safe Derf
P.S. I did note if using self checkout & paying with cash, no change returned !!
Also last week, shoppers were behaving themselves the short time I shopped.

hank

@Derf and @davfor - Thank you both for your suggestions!

davfor

@hank Have you tried Walmart early in the morning. I get there about 7 AM and almost have the store to myself. Same for other stores at that time of day....(Since I usually get up between 4 and 5 that really isn't very early for me.)

rono

Howdy folks,

Mid Michigan but am not having any trouble in the stores like Meijers and Horrocks. 99% of peeps wearing masks. I do avoid busy times of day and crowds. Geez, you want to go early to any inside space before too many people have been. None of the heating nor a/c units are built to bring in outside air other than the air makeup units over restaurant cooking areas. Retrofitting is costly. Until then you want to go early to minimize your load exposure.

Jobs. Wow. So much disruption that's harmful. So much opportunity that's exciting. So much positive reallocation of resources - hopefully. Problem is getting through the next 12 - 18 months or so.

So many jobs are completely gone. Look at the industries that are obsolete. My niece is one the finest restaurant minds I've ever encountered owning three kickass sports bars. She had to sell one just to give herself a half ass chance. Doesn't matter how good you are at making buggy whips in 1915.

This is what is happening to whole industries. Much of this was slowly taking place but the virus is bringing change - at warp speed. Virtual life? Was possible and now it's mandatory AND cost beneficial. Cities? Check the real estate market and building occupancy rates going forward. Large crowded places and gatherings? Really?!?


Enough of the good news. Earlier I felt we'd get back to normal after a few years. Now I don't know. As a species, we're stupide but us Americans are even worse. The idiocy being displayed around the country for ideological reasons is not only insane but will cause this to devolve into exceedingly bad times. I fear this coming winter.

"Get ready, little lady. Hell is coming to breakfast.":

and so it goes,

peace and wear the damn mask,

rono

kings53man

It's not about jobs coming back but leaving permanently as we speak. Companies like Vanguard & TVA (high profile) are moving the IT jobs to India. It's not that they can't afford IT jobs done by American workers but greed supreme.Those jobs are NEVER-NEVER-NEVER going to come back. A slap to America, they will bring cheap India H1 'professionals' to guard the hen house.

davfor

This article discusses some of what needs our attention during the transformation in the economy now underway.

Jobs are fully back for the highest wage earners, but fewer than half the jobs lost this spring have returned for those making less than $20 an hour, according to a new labor data analysis by John Friedman, an economics professor at Brown University and co-director of Opportunity Insights. Though recessions almost always hit lower-wage workers the hardest, the pandemic is causing especially large gaps between rich and poor, and between White and minority households. It is also widening the gap between big and small businesses.

Some economists have started to call this a “K-shaped” recovery because of the diverging prospects for the rich and poor, and they say policy failures in Washington are exacerbating the problems.

“The stock market continues to reflect big businesses increasing their market share during #COVID19. If a small business closes, a larger business fills the void. We need to contemplate what this means for Main Street USA going forward. Is this really the future we want?” Cohn tweeted.

https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/13/recession-is-over-rich-working-class-is-far-recovered/

johnN

25% of stores nearby outlet mall closed or facing bankruptcy including wifey favorite Nordstrom rack. So much sales now/get everything cheap. I am pleasantly surprised you still can get much for your dollar. Good news see many folks shopping and traffic steady.

The Waterpark closeby have at least +300 teenagers/kiddos teenagers no masks/ As Mr Rono stated > 90s% wear masks (even though mandatory or fine few hundreds)

10% need new tenants though at mall.

catch22

@johnN
Shopping and buying are two different animals in economic terms, eh?

Sven

@davfor, thank you for the good article. Those who have jobs and retirement accounts are doing much better but a sizable population are not so fortunate and they are suffering. New Zealand is the shining example of how they managed the public health risk well and as the result their citizen are doing much better than those in US.

davfor

Just noticed the link to the original article was not included.....

https://apnews.com/89992979ca3c3ba72eb2cd31a9ca0e5d

Old_Joe

@davfor (and everyone): Note the small gear over at the top right of your posts. If you click on that, then click on "Edit", you can add to, delete from, or otherwise edit your posts. Very handy, as I frequently find that my first version leaves something to be desired.

(And yes, I just heard some of you thinking that all of my posts leave something to be desired.)

johnN

Hi Sir @_Catch22 -
just what the 'Doctor' ordered

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/14/retail-sales-july-2020.html

stay safe

catch22

@johnN
I watched the numbers this morning on Bloomberg. A blip at this point, IMHO. The report was indicated to only include the first 2 weeks of July. And how much of the spending involved money from the previous stimulus checks and the bump in unemployment monies for some to spend, too. The stimulus money may now be spent and no continued enhanced unemployment monies.
I don't see consumer spending having a strong base going forward, except for the needed items.
Obviously, just my view.

FD1000

Jobs gone forever, yep. I worked over 35 in IT and can tell you that the systems I coded and implemented were faster, better and cheaper than humans. So I knew it's coming in the 80" already.
These processes got faster and better and why many can't compete and lost their jobs. Add to it globalization and now you can hire cheaper labor in other countries.
If you are part of STEM(link) you will do OK. Most others may be in trouble.
The next step is the middle class and up will start losing their jobs too. Think professions such as investment career: thousands got fired, how long can you charge too much about nothing, real estate: commission FINALLY are been cut to 5-4 and now 3% (Redfin will sell your house for just 4% and if you buy thru them will pay you 1%), many other white collar jobs in travel and more will be gone. If you can fix things (Plumbing, AC, vehicles) you will be ok too.

Basically, the gap will increase and create more problems
So, if you are crazy about history and go to university, you better pick another major. I gave my kids this option. We will pay for your tuition only if you select one major that we think you have a chance to find a job, and we only pay for 4 year, so you better get serious. My daughter had a hard time, and she selected 3 majors (2 what she wanted and third for her dad) and eventually got PHD in third and loves it now. Now tell me who is your daddy?

davfor

FD1000 said:

Jobs gone forever, yep.

.....Basically, the gap will increase and create more problems

Yes. This all seems probable. Which just makes it more important to implement programs that will assist those who have been displaced to transition to a new place in a changed post-covid world.

Old_Joe

Crow while you can. Just remember in the back of your mind that those people who won't find new jobs, and won't be able to rent, and will barely be able to eat are the same people who have all of those automatic pistols and rifles. And those are also the same people that you will need to hire to protect you in your guarded, fenced enclave. Good luck on that. Matter of time.

Those who are "crazy about history" will know exactly what I'm talking about.

FD1000

@davfor Yes. This all seems probable. Which just makes it more important to implement programs that will assist those who have been displaced to transition to a new place in a changed post-covid world.

I agree but the solution should never be only Government it should be a combo of Gov+the private sector developing programs for jobs that are needed in the work place.
There are tests that can reveal someone aptitude and capability and where they should go next.

@Old_Joe Crow while you can. Just remember in the back of your mind that those people who won't find new jobs, and won't be able to rent, and will barely be able to eat are the same people who have all of those automatic pistols and rifles. And those are also the same people that you will need to hire to protect you in your guarded, fenced enclave. Good luck on that. Matter of time

Nope, guards will be in demand (we are seeing it already "defund the police") and will have plenty of jobs.
The key for each individual is to figure out where the future and the ability to change. It's a two-way street, the people who have hard time finding a job and/or don't make enough must change too. Sometimes you can change your job within growing field and still be employed, make more money and still enjoy yourself. Example I have seen the following at my job and I never expected it. I worked many years on Gov/State cotracts and we had to write huge RFP(link). We hired someone with a master degree in English that already took an IT course and learn the basics. He was outstanding, he was appreciated, and he got huge pay raises. From that point on he did so much more, we had to come up with a brochure for clients explaining our software, he was the one. I have talked with that guy for years, he told me he had a dead end job and couldn't find anything better and now he is so happy and more than double his salary.

davfor

FD1000 said:

I agree but the solution should never be only Government it should be a combo of Gov+the private sector developing programs for jobs that are needed in the work place.

Yes...partnership makes sense.