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Thanks very much @Mark for sharing this. A very good read. He's an excellent writer. His closing reminds me of Tevye from Fiddler on the Roof.... "on the one hand." I dont think this one is really actionable but a very thoughtful analysis
As an investor Marks is slow and methodical. Those traits characterize his speaking and writing as well. Very much focused on process - the nuts and bolts that drive a portfolio over long stretches. He’s also a patient adherent of the “... blood in the streets ...” approach. That sounds simple, but is extraordinarily difficult to pull off.
Oaktree caters to high wealth clients and specializes in buying and selling distressed debt. That’s where Marks sees his expertise. He’ll talk / write about the firm’s ongoing process, but won’t share specific buy sell ideas. That’s largely to prevent front-running. He will, however, address for illustrative purposes some of his past trades. Unlike some in the racket, he won’t “talk his book” in an attempt to drive certain markets or specific securities in directions that might benefit Oaktree.
PS - Man, that’s one complex way of looking at those GDP numbers near the end. I would have thought some of it intuitive - but I’m not Marks.
I suspect, as one's time frame allows; most here always have a "time for thinking" about the investments. For me, this is a weekly (at a minimum) control and view period to observe "trends". At some point, I will not desire to do this and will have to choose an active managed fund(s) that I am comfortable with and bite my tongue when I see a missed opportunity in a particular equity or bond sector. For those so inclined, the investing table and ease of electronically investing has never been so complete to focus your investments within your risk tolerance. A recent example I posted is a 529 account that is 50/50 VITPX and VBMPX (note: moving money around is very restricted with a 529). Had this been a personal account of another form, I still would have felt comfortable holding this position, as the normal market function is to support bond prices if and when the equity side takes a big face slap, and the reverse of this. The case so far this year is with VITPX having a YTD of +4.7% and VBMPX at +8.1%. A pleasing +6.4% combo, YTD. "Thinking time" is part of this thought process (what sectors are changing, and why). Yes, indeed; time for thinking should be rewarding and part of one's "work" if you choose to remain an active individual investor. Note: I've never been a re-balance a portfolio once a year, just because it seems like the right thing to do (so-called pundit talk, eh?). Regards, Catch
I don’t set aside a certain time to “think“ about investing. It’s ingrained in me as one of many stimulating things I enjoy thinking about much of the time. As fictional character Henry Drummond in Inherit the Wind remarks (somewhat emphatically): “That’s the difference between a man and a sponge. A man can think!”
Don’t get me wrong. Family, hobbies, exercise, entertainment and other reading are all important. But thinking about investing is a frequent pleasure - even when markets run the wrong way. In terms of serious attention to the subject (rebalancing, etc.) that’s generally performed at at the end of each calendar quarter. But sometimes fate intervenes - as it did last March.
I almost pinged you today @Catch22 for clarity on when the futures markets assume actual relevance. I know you like to follow them too. Bloomberg has been posting “futures” all day long (Sunday). But it’s my understanding they open sometime after 7 PM - at least where the U.S. is concerned. Maybe foreign futures open sooner. Am very curious how actions over the weekend by our “one-man band” will impact bonds, gold and equities. At this point - It’s anybody’s guess.
The below video (Bob Prince) remains a bond head scratch and a valid concern for me. Some items discussed have been part of conversations here but his path of thought process and overview helps me in the "listen to him speak" mode.
Bloomberg has been posting “futures” all day long (Sunday). But it’s my understanding they open sometime after 7 PM - at least where the U.S. is concerned.
If I happen to view Bloomberg in the evening, their ticker with the bond prices and yields generally reset after 7pm, EST........otherwise the previous business day info is shown. Tonight (Sunday) this info reset once from previous close and is stuck at unchanged.....system burp?
I use this Barchart below for a quick check. Example: Third line down, UDU20 Sept. '20 (long duration bonds) is the current contract trading (see volume to the right). The change colum...........I want to see this GREEN, meaning price up and yield down. That's how the money is made. Other duration bonds are down the graph page. FINVIZ futures that I think you look at too, are generally close for the bond prices/yields.
I'm not a trader.....day type; but attempt to see and understand the data to tell me when I should think more about a buy or sell. A large observation of this is when the credit markets became "stuck" during the initial equity melt in February, and did not provide the normal safe haven. Eventually the FED fixed this for now. If one drives the same road long enough and pays attention to the normal seasonal changes, one can expect to minimize surprises. You're aware of this in your part of the state.......there's always a given number of nasty roadway areas when the wind is blowing the snow from a particular direction, eh? No surprises, eh?
ADD: Real time broad etfs (when U.S. markets are open). A nice list to watch and ponder, and I find the technical "opinion" column to be quite accurate. Lots of other stuff on this page, too.
Comments
Oaktree caters to high wealth clients and specializes in buying and selling distressed debt. That’s where Marks sees his expertise. He’ll talk / write about the firm’s ongoing process, but won’t share specific buy sell ideas. That’s largely to prevent front-running. He will, however, address for illustrative purposes some of his past trades. Unlike some in the racket, he won’t “talk his book” in an attempt to drive certain markets or specific securities in directions that might benefit Oaktree.
PS - Man, that’s one complex way of looking at those GDP numbers near the end. I would have thought some of it intuitive - but I’m not Marks.
For those so inclined, the investing table and ease of electronically investing has never been so complete to focus your investments within your risk tolerance.
A recent example I posted is a 529 account that is 50/50 VITPX and VBMPX (note: moving money around is very restricted with a 529). Had this been a personal account of another form, I still would have felt comfortable holding this position, as the normal market function is to support bond prices if and when the equity side takes a big face slap, and the reverse of this. The case so far this year is with VITPX having a YTD of +4.7% and VBMPX at +8.1%. A pleasing +6.4% combo, YTD. "Thinking time" is part of this thought process (what sectors are changing, and why).
Yes, indeed; time for thinking should be rewarding and part of one's "work" if you choose to remain an active individual investor.
Note: I've never been a re-balance a portfolio once a year, just because it seems like the right thing to do (so-called pundit talk, eh?).
Regards,
Catch
I don’t set aside a certain time to “think“ about investing. It’s ingrained in me as one of many stimulating things I enjoy thinking about much of the time. As fictional character Henry Drummond in Inherit the Wind remarks (somewhat emphatically): “That’s the difference between a man and a sponge. A man can think!”
Don’t get me wrong. Family, hobbies, exercise, entertainment and other reading are all important. But thinking about investing is a frequent pleasure - even when markets run the wrong way. In terms of serious attention to the subject (rebalancing, etc.) that’s generally performed at at the end of each calendar quarter. But sometimes fate intervenes - as it did last March.
I almost pinged you today @Catch22 for clarity on when the futures markets assume actual relevance. I know you like to follow them too. Bloomberg has been posting “futures” all day long (Sunday). But it’s my understanding they open sometime after 7 PM - at least where the U.S. is concerned. Maybe foreign futures open sooner. Am very curious how actions over the weekend by our “one-man band” will impact bonds, gold and equities. At this point - It’s anybody’s guess.
The below video (Bob Prince) remains a bond head scratch and a valid concern for me. Some items discussed have been part of conversations here but his path of thought process and overview helps me in the "listen to him speak" mode.
Bob Prince, Bridgewater, 11 minute video, Aug. 7
You noted: If I happen to view Bloomberg in the evening, their ticker with the bond prices and yields generally reset after 7pm, EST........otherwise the previous business day info is shown. Tonight (Sunday) this info reset once from previous close and is stuck at unchanged.....system burp?
I use this Barchart below for a quick check. Example: Third line down, UDU20 Sept. '20 (long duration bonds) is the current contract trading (see volume to the right). The change colum...........I want to see this GREEN, meaning price up and yield down. That's how the money is made. Other duration bonds are down the graph page.
FINVIZ futures that I think you look at too, are generally close for the bond prices/yields.
Barchart futures, bonds
I'm not a trader.....day type; but attempt to see and understand the data to tell me when I should think more about a buy or sell. A large observation of this is when the credit markets became "stuck" during the initial equity melt in February, and did not provide the normal safe haven. Eventually the FED fixed this for now.
If one drives the same road long enough and pays attention to the normal seasonal changes, one can expect to minimize surprises. You're aware of this in your part of the state.......there's always a given number of nasty roadway areas when the wind is blowing the snow from a particular direction, eh? No surprises, eh?
ADD: Real time broad etfs (when U.S. markets are open). A nice list to watch and ponder, and I find the technical "opinion" column to be quite accurate. Lots of other stuff on this page, too.
ADD: Real time, global
Okay. Almost pillow time from a long work day.
Catch