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Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave

Call me paranoid but I think either a cancellation of the election or the orange death just plain refuses to leave are both real possibilities. The rule of law has already been seriously compromised and he owns justice and defense. The gop has long since abandoned any pretense of putting America first. If Putin tells him to stay put who will tell him to leave? My question is how to hedge this risk: Treasuries and cash? Anyone else pondering this risk?


  • I shouldn’t respond — I think it could be messy with both parties suing different states for irregularities but things will be resolved before Jan 20, 2021. If by chance that is not the case the 20th amendment offers some clues.

    Section 1
    The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

    Section 3
    If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.
  • "The Congress"? What exactly does that mean? The House? The Senate? A simple majority in both? If "take no prisoners" McConnell is still the Senate leader would you really expect some sort of reasonable compromise?

    Good luck!
  • Do nothing and stop being emotional and dramatic.
  • @FD1000. Thanks for your response. I don’t know how to share links but you might check out The Atlantic,,, July 12th. A Decidedly non emotional and not dramatic article “ Trump Might Not Want to Relinquish Power” by Graham Allison. All I will say is that after everything that has happened during this presidency nothing would shock me now.
  • @FD1000..... PS. Please check outthe author of the above mentioned article... Mr. Allison is extremely credible.......
  • edited July 2020
    Maybe consider buying gun stocks (regardless of who may win)...police force may not be there to help out in real emergencies

    Smith & Wesson Brands (NASDAQ:SWBI)
    Sturm Ruger (NYSE:RGR)
    Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN)

  • Really helpful, John. Good to see you maintaining your usual high posting standards.
  • Pathetic johnN.
  • edited July 2020
    FD1000 said:

    Do nothing and stop being emotional and dramatic.

    I kind of agree with 1k. Perhaps for somewhat different reasons. This and many other scenarios have long been contemplated and factored into investment positioning by investors with far longer time horizons than 4 or 5 months. Doing something now in a panic-driven frenzy would be unwise. How many other black swan scenarios should we than prep for? Earth being slammed by an asteroid? Some nut touching off an A-bomb somewhere on the planet - maybe 2 or 3? Killer plague wiping out large segments of the population? How about an evil genius hacking the electrical grid and knocking out all power and communications coast-to-coast? How would (the now darkened) stock market like that?

    If you worried about all these possibilities all the time you’d never invest. Instead, you’d be proud bearer of a Treasury money fund cranking out something like .09% annual interest. My point isn’t that the possibilities Larry listed couldn’t happen. To the contrary. I’m suggesting that to invest is to accept this and a wide array of dangers. There’s nothing “safe” about investing.

    We are indebted to @JohnN for highlighting that this is a silly question for a broad based investment forum like this to attempt to answer and doesn’t warrant our energy being so expended. (But it would make an intriguing subject for law students or those doing graduate work in history / poly-sci.)
  • edited July 2020
    Hi sir Old_joe,

    Just list several events we've seen recently. 3.9 millions new gun applications in June was record number. Lots folks we talked to [mostly business owners] are looking into buying guns; gun supplies also dried up when wd went gun stores and there back logged

    Covid also released many individuals in correctional facilities; courts are closed again. Crimes rate also edging up across many large metropolitans cities... i also talked to several law enforcement officers when are contemplating changing careers because of high risks low reward work

    Met several person had real emergencies at home but police did not show when they called 911

    Of course these are stories that we encountered and we don't have actual facts

    Swbi stock went up tremendously recently

    Pls do stay safe sir
  • Hi @LarryB- It's very easy to post a link- all you need do is go to the page of interest- in this case, the Atlantic article- and copy the URL (address) of the article. Again in this case, that would be:

    If you then just paste that into your post, as I did here, it should work just fine. The software that powers MFO is smart enough to recognize it as an internet link, and will format it automatically for you.

  • @Old_Joe. Thanks. I think you have shared that with me in the past. My bad.
  • johnN said:

    Hi sir Old_joe,

    Met several person had real emergencies at home but police did not show when they called 911


    You did huh? Please tell us about "several" of them or even 1 or 2.

  • @johnN: Having spent my last twenty years of employment as a radio tech for San Francisco's 911 I'd really like to hear the details of 911 "not showing up", John. Or is this just more of your usual line of BS?
  • what they said
  • What hank said.

    What WABAC sez? I don't see any state cancelling its election.

    I might have more to say later.;-)
  • edited July 2020
    larryB said:

    Anyone else pondering this risk?

    Yes. I’ve pondered it since roughly November 9, 2016. But I ponder a whole lot of things. Folks ponder all sorts of solutions to vexing issues. So the options Larry tossed out are no doubt being considered by some. He left out shifting to foreign equities / currencies which some (self included) have also pursued.

    Gold often reacts to fear, Some of the run-up in price from around $1500 to today’s $1800 over the past 2 years has likely been influenced by the fear Larry voiced. But gold is an extremely thin market. Easy for the big players to manipulate. And it can turn on a dime. Just when you think you understand why it’s behaving the way it is, it will turn on you and make you an idiot. I think it will continue moving higher the next several months or longer and draw in a lot of new (unsuspecting) money. But as demonstrated back in March, it’s fully capable of falling 15-20% in a matter of days and taking down the miners along with it. And in a real bear market, it can be a “white knuckle” ride you won’t soon forget.

    Here’s a vexing dilemma. Say you buy those hedges which are rising (and have been for some time) out of political anxiety. Then, surprisingly, the perceived “problem“ fails to materialize (crisis averted). What do you think is going to happen to the value of those hedges? While theoretically cash can’t fall in (nominal) value, should other alternatives (like equities) surge ahead while you’re sitting in cash you have, effectively, held a losing position. All motion is relative.:)
  • Howdy folks,

    Been pondering this risk since the Ides of November. In my not so humble opinion, the odds are greater than zero but not so high as to necessitate drastic action.

    Rbrt has it down per the law. In addition, while Trump has the AG and the Senate he does NOT have the Supreme Court (ty Roberts) nor does he have the military.

    Actually, the scenario I envision was posted earlier that Trump is tired of the BS and wants out. So, while he's making 'show moves' regarding the election, he's more interested in planning his Post presidency life. What does bother me, is all those MAGA hat wearing Nazi's running around with M-16s.

    What the states need to do is pass referendums to ban assault weapons and high capacity magazines. SCOTUS ruled it's OK.

    and so it goes,


  • What if Trump pardons Ghislaine Maxell ?

  • She needs to be tried and convicted first. I doubt that will happen before 45 is run out of office.
  • Ford gave the unindicted co-conspirator a "full, free and absolute" pardon for crimes he might have committed.
  • All rather useless speculation and panic. Having known many high ranking military folks ( Colonel and above), I am confident that they love their country and the democracy and while they will tell you they will follow "legitimate" Presidential orders, when Trump looses, they will not follow his orders after 12:01 January 20th

    Espey's recent comments and extreme reluctance to get involved int he protests shows that even Trump loyalists see to have a higher standard than "Donald told me to do it"

    I think that is why Roberts has been such a centrist and so carefully crafted compromise 7-2 opinions recently rather than 5-4. He knows the Court's credibility is at stake and once it looses the confidence of the public nothing it does anymore matters.
  • I agree.
  • edited July 2020
    +1 @sma3, Nice analysis.

    I disagree a tad bit. Near-term the whole process could be messy and roil markets as it unfolds. Speculators playing that potential (perhaps months of uncertainty, heated rhetoric, court hearings, media hyper-ventilation) might ride some horses higher (gold for example). Longer term things should settle back down. Nothing I’d recommend investors act on. But, in reality, there are a great many frequent traders vying with the algorithms to make a fast buck - including some here.

    In recent days Bloomberg TV has interviewed 2 or 3 money managers who have espoused the thesis Larry voiced. True to form, the network talking heads are now beginning to weave that theme into their daily commentary. Expect it to become dominant well before November. It’s a game played to try and hold viewer interest. After all, what’s the attraction of staring dumbly at a bunch of numbers on the screen all day? Bloomberg has some nice looking anchors - but hardly enough to hold your attention for hours on end.
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