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James Carville: There is no chance Trump will be re-elected
That was funny. James Carville in 09/2016 (link) "It’s hard to look at it right now and come to any other conclusion than it is going to be a pretty sizable win for the Democrats"
The problem with quoting numbers in isolation is that one doesn't know what's behind them. The cited page is not a consensus report, but rather the output of a single model (compare with, e.g. 538's models).
At least as important as comparing model outputs is understanding how the models work. (That's true for financial models as well.) As Nate Silver noted, many 2016 models looked at national polls, failing to do state-by-state analysis. A 2020 state by state analysis is much more favorable to the Democrats than were 2016 state by state analyses.
Even at the national level, there's quite a difference between the 2016 polling behind the cited Times model and current 2020 polling. The 2016 polling (per cited NYTimes page) showed Hillary with an average 6 point national lead (45.6% vs 39.6). One of the polls even showed Trump leading. What's the spread now? How is it trending? (Hint: double and growing.)
More to consider: The WSJ editorial (mentioned in the OP's video) observes: Trump's "approval rating has fallen to the 40% or below that is George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter territory. They’re the last two Presidents to be denied a second term."
Unlike 2016, the 2020 election has an incumbent running, making this election what the WSJ calls "The Trump Referendum".
That was funny. James Carville in 09/2016 (link) "It’s hard to look at it right now and come to any other conclusion than it is going to be a pretty sizable win for the Democrats"
I certainly agree. While we know that Trump is incoherent, that has become the norm. Biden is prone to gaffes, which concerns me very much because they will be less forgiving.
FD1k loves to preach "momo" except when it does not fit his narrative.
I think Biden may get at least > 300 electoral votes [Ohio /Iowa Wisconsin/ 2nd maine district /arizona /Texas /NC /Fla /GA /Colorado /Pennsylvania /and nh may all go toward Buden] according to current polls and msnbc cnn narratives, his chance probably better than Clinton right now compared to 2016 imho. We may not need to go vote since biden will definitely win. We probably don't need debates nor conventions because of Covid-19 risks
Brings to the table? Corruption. Ignorance. Childish impulsiveness. Zero ethics. No conscience. A shell of a human, filled to the tippity-top with orange excrement.
"A recently published internal document from 2017 on federal employment issues revealed that a top Trump aide encouraged White House lawyers to examine whether the president has an inherent constitutional authority to fire whomever he pleases in government, seeking to deem civil service and merit systems protections unconstitutional."
Can just imagine a President sitting at his/her desk signing termination and hiring documents all day long as long as there are loyalists without proper credentials to reward. And oh the chaos; regular workforce turnover similar to current Whitehouse appointee turnover. Joe the Plumber replaces Dr. Fauci as head of Infectious Diseases.
We will still win. Majority of the states are controlled by Republicans and they will be conducting the elections and you know who they will favor. Remember 14 hour wait in Georgia for casting votes in primaries there, not the norm but who knows - something invisible? You need to look into some positive characteristics in DT. There are many if you look for them.
I am with Fd1K, Trump will win. There is just two outcome - win or loose. We love what he brings to the table - Fd1K will be able to elaborate.
Trump may win and yes, FD1K certainly will be able to elaborate on Wednesday, November 4 on how many electoral votes that he predicted Trump would get. He is good at this.
Regardless, in Trump, we have a president in which incompetence, stupidity, derangement, bigotry, corruption, and dishonesty are each struggling to take the upper hand.
By the way, the word is spelled lose not "loose". I understand why you can't elaborate.
Several factors at play here: economy, unemployment, BLM and police ethics/brutalities law change, covid-19 management, Healthcare issue,, if trumpo demonstrate in the next few months he can handle/appease independents he may come out on top. I think Biden maybe slightly ahea but could be too early to predict anything now. Surprisingly I saw polls independent voters in swing states very even keel both party (think it was 46-44 biden). It maybe very close by Nov3. Could be large Bluewave (senate house potus) vs ripple depending if economy/covid pushback factors may turn around or not.
Same angry voices. I sleep well regardless and don't pay attention to polls.
Mona: FD1k loves to preach "momo" except when it does not fit his narrative. FD: can you explain the personnel attack? ho, I get it, you lost money year to date while I'm nicely up so you are looking to blame someone.
Same angry voices. I sleep well regardless and don't pay attention to polls.
Mona: FD1k loves to preach "momo" except when it does not fit his narrative. FD: can you explain the personnel attack? ho, I get it, you lost money year to date while I'm nicely up so you are looking to blame someone.
Same angry voices. I sleep well regardless and don't pay attention to polls.
Mona: FD1k loves to preach "momo" except when it does not fit his narrative. FD: can you explain the personnel attack? ho, I get it, you lost money year to date while I'm nicely up so you are looking to blame someone.
Looks like I hit another nerve. Sorry.
Actually far from it. I post at MFO for investments purpose while you and others keep posting about other subjects. This site supposes to be dedicated to investments.
if trumpo demonstrate in the next few months he can handle/appease independents he may come out on top. I think Biden maybe slightly ahea but could be too early to predict anything now. Surprisingly I saw polls independent voters in swing states very even keel both party (think it was 46-44 biden).
Interesting choice of words. Voters aren't people to help, to work for, but rather to "handle", to "appease".
I'm sure you saw something somewhere that you think you remember about some unnamed states. Where possible, I try to name names.
According to Fox News polling, Biden leads Trump among independent voters by eight points in Wisconsin and five points in Arizona. This is despite the fact that Trump won independent voters in these states by 10 points and three points respectively in 2016, according to CNN exit poll data.
While I think that calling Texas a swing state is a bit premature, here's what Fox News polling found in Texas (posted June 26, 2020):
Joe Biden tops President Donald Trump by a percentage point, 45-44 percent, in a new Fox News survey of Texas registered voters. ... the subgroup of independents goes for Biden by 18 points (40-22 percent).
See-saw battles. Back and forth data / dependent on the sources and how polls are interpret. Current data do show biden has pulled slowly ahead but we have 4-5 months left...unless economy turns around trump may loose BIGGIE
John Roberts and the Supreme Court, not noted for being stupid, might well hem, haw, and generally delay consideration until after the election, hoping that a new administration will withdraw the entire matter.
The Electoral College is the losers' trump-card. Yes, the pun. Overall polls don't inform as much as State-specific polls. Way past time to kill the suck-ass ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
Comments
James Carville in 09/2016 (link) "It’s hard to look at it right now and come to any other conclusion than it is going to be a pretty sizable win for the Democrats"
NY Times 10/2016 Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance to win - The New York Times
You should keep worrying
At least as important as comparing model outputs is understanding how the models work. (That's true for financial models as well.) As Nate Silver noted, many 2016 models looked at national polls, failing to do state-by-state analysis. A 2020 state by state analysis is much more favorable to the Democrats than were 2016 state by state analyses.
Even at the national level, there's quite a difference between the 2016 polling behind the cited Times model and current 2020 polling. The 2016 polling (per cited NYTimes page) showed Hillary with an average 6 point national lead (45.6% vs 39.6). One of the polls even showed Trump leading. What's the spread now? How is it trending? (Hint: double and growing.)
More to consider: The WSJ editorial (mentioned in the OP's video) observes: Trump's "approval rating has fallen to the 40% or below that is George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter territory. They’re the last two Presidents to be denied a second term."
Unlike 2016, the 2020 election has an incumbent running, making this election what the WSJ calls "The Trump Referendum".
maybe I posted this already
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/22/2016-what-democrats-get-wrong-about-that-election
Didn't mean to strike a nerve. Sorry.
Possibly Karl Rove's opinion will have the same effect on you. And as a bonus, I made certain that it came from your favorite channel.
"Karl Rove says Trump is clearly trailing Biden: Here are 3 things he must do to turn it around"
https://www.foxnews.com/media/karl-rove-trump-is-behind-biden
You should keep worrying
It's still only June.....
... and this *is* 2020, you know.
FD1k loves to preach "momo" except when it does not fit his narrative.
Senate House POTUS blue wave likely
Anyone here know any vets? Dead vets? Or is a vet? Or finds this Confederacy-level treason?
Or indeed thinks this is some progtard fake news? FD1k? Anyone?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-operation-targeted-coalition-troops-in-afghanistan-intelligence-finds/2020/06/26/ac710092-b80f-11ea-9b0f-c797548c1154_story.html
"Trump Signs Executive Order to Overhaul the Federal Hiring Process
Order seeks to place less emphasis on applicants with college degrees."
https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2020/06/trump-sign-executive-order-overhaul-federal-hiring-process/166471/
and
"A recently published internal document from 2017 on federal employment issues revealed that a top Trump aide encouraged White House lawyers to examine whether the president has an inherent constitutional authority to fire whomever he pleases in government, seeking to deem civil service and merit systems protections unconstitutional."
https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/06/white-house-advisor-sought-legal-opinion-trump-can-fire-anyone-government/166445/
Can just imagine a President sitting at his/her desk signing termination and hiring documents all day long as long as there are loyalists without proper credentials to reward. And oh the chaos; regular workforce turnover similar to current Whitehouse appointee turnover. Joe the Plumber replaces Dr. Fauci as head of Infectious Diseases.
Regardless, in Trump, we have a president in which incompetence, stupidity, derangement, bigotry, corruption, and dishonesty are each struggling to take the upper hand.
By the way, the word is spelled lose not "loose". I understand why you can't elaborate.
Mona: FD1k loves to preach "momo" except when it does not fit his narrative.
FD: can you explain the personnel attack? ho, I get it, you lost money year to date while I'm nicely up so you are looking to blame someone.
I'm sure you saw something somewhere that you think you remember about some unnamed states. Where possible, I try to name names. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/biden-trump-electioin-doug-schoen (Fox News Opinion, June 21, 2020).
While I think that calling Texas a swing state is a bit premature, here's what Fox News polling found in Texas (posted June 26, 2020): https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-texas-tossup-biden-trump-a-one-point-race
See-saw battles. Back and forth data / dependent on the sources and how polls are interpret. Current data do show biden has pulled slowly ahead but we have 4-5 months left...unless economy turns around trump may loose BIGGIE
The priceless (hopefully) parting false insight; you do not even or ever have to invoke the name Freud with this guy
Trump may not be there nov3
May also get covid19 before then
Pence likely polls much better
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-fragile-mood-may-drop-152718908.html
Trump vs biden from fedsmith fed agency polls
Very close indeed