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Here Is Why The S&P 500 Could Be Headed For 3,700 May 29, 2020 6:35 PMSPY, QQQ, DIA Summary /Very few authors on this site have been as outspoken about a market rebound than I have. I have written eight very bullish articles since March 18th. Every one of them has been right on the money. I hope that they made you money. This is my main purpose for being a regular on this site, to help make you money./
I’ve no prediction for the S&P. He could have it right. However, his unwarranted arrogance gets in the way of communication here. Agree with @davidrmoran. This guy struggled to earn a C in high school comp class. But let’s see what we can glean from his four investing “gems.”
- Rule Number One : The market is not going to do what you want it to do. You cannot invest in your opinion, your bias, or in the headlines that you agree with.
I like that one. I find it the most challenging obstacle to my effective buying / selling. It’s called “confirmation bias”. Here’s a good definition: “Confirmation bias is the natural human tendency to seek or emphasize information that confirms an existing conclusion or hypothesis.” Fight not to let your own confirmation bias lead you in the wrong direction.
- Rule Number Two : You will get a lot better feel for the market by looking at 100 one-year charts than you will from reading 100 headlines.
That’s BS. One year tells you little. Anything can happen in one year. I like charts - but 5 & 10 year patterns are more useful. As previously reported, Yahoo Finance lets you dig up performance figures for funds all the way back to inception. Wonderful tool. Use it. And than to further indict all “headlines” ..... ? Depends which headlines idiot! Twitter? Probably “No.” While ignorance may be bliss, Franklin had it right when he wrote that emptying one’s “purse” into his head is a road to better dividends. Reading widely (WSJ, Barron’s, Reuters, FT, etc.) helps provide the grounding for making informed decisions.
- Rule Number Three : The market is forward-looking.
Agree.
- Rule Number Four : Stocks and the market follow earnings and earnings expectations.
Not my forte. But judging by the way certain tech stocks have behaved in the past (AAPL, TSLA) I wonder whether that’s true.
Comments
Very few authors on this site have been as outspoken about a market rebound than I have.
Article and comments are interesting, though.
- Rule Number One : The market is not going to do what you want it to do. You cannot invest in your opinion, your bias, or in the headlines that you agree with.
I like that one. I find it the most challenging obstacle to my effective buying / selling. It’s called “confirmation bias”. Here’s a good definition: “Confirmation bias is the natural human tendency to seek or emphasize information that confirms an existing conclusion or hypothesis.” Fight not to let your own confirmation bias lead you in the wrong direction.
- Rule Number Two : You will get a lot better feel for the market by looking at 100 one-year charts than you will from reading 100 headlines.
That’s BS. One year tells you little. Anything can happen in one year. I like charts - but 5 & 10 year patterns are more useful. As previously reported, Yahoo Finance lets you dig up performance figures for funds all the way back to inception. Wonderful tool. Use it. And than to further indict all “headlines” ..... ? Depends which headlines idiot! Twitter? Probably “No.” While ignorance may be bliss, Franklin had it right when he wrote that emptying one’s “purse” into his head is a road to better dividends. Reading widely (WSJ, Barron’s, Reuters, FT, etc.) helps provide the grounding for making informed decisions.
- Rule Number Three : The market is forward-looking.
Agree.
- Rule Number Four : Stocks and the market follow earnings and earnings expectations.
Not my forte. But judging by the way certain tech stocks have behaved in the past (AAPL, TSLA) I wonder whether that’s true.