Bounce Back ... MFO Ratings Updated Through April 2020

Charles

All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.

Considering world economies appeared to be ending in March, through April, markets don't look so bad ... S&P 500 off just 9.3%. Russell 3000 -10.4%. MSCI World ex USA -19.9%. NASDAQ near even. AGG +4.9%. TLT +23.8%

Can read a bit more here.

Sven

Thanks for your great work on MFO Premium. Yes, the market has recovered some of the 30% loss in March.

Charles

Wow. Unreal. Thank you!

WABAC

It will be interesting to see who the category leaders are this month for my standard screen.

Indeed, the rapid reversal makes me wonder if there could be a feature that would allow one to filter on returns to a specific end month. I doubt that would ever have occurred to me under other circumstances.

FD1000

Prices were up in April because the fiscal and monetary support was huge and markets are looking ahead. We haven't seen anything like this in the last 50 years.

This is what I posted on ‎03-17-2020 11:38 PM (link)

7) For me and others who don’t mind to use possible better performing categories, select the ones with better momentum.

IDEA1: QQQ looks to me as a better choice than SP500 coming out of this meltdown because these giant high tech companies rule the world and the indexes and the strongest. QQQ also has a lower loss YTD then the SP500.

IDEA2: I am going to let the charts, trend, and prices tell me what is hot.

Charles

Thanks to @davidrmoran, just added ability to screen for ETNs, as a separate asset class, in MulitSearch. A lot are commodities-based trading only vehicles, many leveraged. But some are pretty sweet, like CAPE.

Charles

Also, thanks to a suggestion from another subscriber, users can now customize the names of Watchlists and Portfolios, both of which are saved to user profiles.

Charles

@WABAC. The closest thing in MultiSearch right now that provides ratings to end dates other that current month are the full, up, and down cycle Display periods. There are 6 such cycles going back to 1960 (though honestly it looks like we called the current one prematurely ... using month ending SP500 levels). When we first did the cycles analysis, it was based on day ending returns. I may end up revising the cycle dates (and numbers) based on the original methodology.

Reference: Ten Market Cycles versus Mediocrity and Frustration, which simplified to 5 cycles, and A Presumptive Bear Ends an 11-Year Bull Run, which introduced the 6th.

Charles

@WABAC. It may be possible to pretty quickly implement a specific period for metrics only (lots of sites do that Yahoo, M*). The tricky part is the ratings for specific periods. That requires computing metrics for all funds in a desired category, plus accounting for outliers, before assigning ratings. Hopefully, just having more cycle periods will help provide screens across interesting market periods. And maybe instead of vanilla names like Full Cycle 5, we should call them GFC, CV-19, Tech Bubble, Black Monday, etc. Could also define more periods or cycles driven by asset classes other than SP500, like USBond (30 year bull ... and that might not be over!) or gold. Any periods come to mind? In any case, thanks for suggestion ... will noddle more on it.

Charles

@WABAC. In addition to the 48 periods that MultiSearch provides metrics and ratings across, it now provides return metrics and ratings by calendar year, which I find helpful from a consistency assessment basis, as discussed in Back To Basics.

Charles

Just added nine new evaluation periods to MultiSearch and Portfolios tools, as described here.

I'm finding the new period quite helpful. Thank you @WABAC!