Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Bonds beat stocks over 20 years

I'll trust the author's method of calculation. I do not disagree with his conclusions.

NYT article

SNIPPET:
Here are the annualized returns:

The S&P 500: 5.4 percent.

Long Treasury bonds (with a duration of at least 10 years): 8.3 percent.

Long investment-grade corporate bonds: 7.7 percent.

Junk bonds: 6.5 percent.

Broad investment-grade bond index (the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond index): 5.2 percent.

Take care,
Catch

Comments

  • Yeah, it is eye-opening indeed to compare SP500 since NY2k with BND and FAGIX. Criminy.

    But evidently it's a brutal test and a brutal span, although few thought so holding on through it.

    Compare SP500 also with DODBX, OAKBX, and FPACX wow.

    Yet just to show the, what, 'virtue' of active management, throw in CGMFX, and you wind up the same place as FAGIX --- and way ahead of SP500.

    I stopped touting FLPSX here after a ton of meh, meh responses. Since NY2k, though, it absolutely pounds all of these funds. And with only the one guy at the helm. That's investing. $10k growth of SP500 is to $28k; Tillinghast laps that many times, reaching $68k to date.
  • edited May 2020
    Yes, LT bond did better but also VWINX (2/3 bonds) did better but also SD=volatility was better too. (link)

    But in the last 10 years TLT+EDV have similar performance to the SP500 too (link)
  • Anyone compared data to 12/31/2019 before the crash?
    thankyou
  • edited May 2020
    @johnN
    What data?
    I presume you use your preferred sites for review of time frames for investment returns.
  • beebee
    edited May 2020

    I stopped touting FLPSX here after a ton of meh, meh responses. Since NY2k, though, it absolutely pounds all of these funds. And with only the one guy at the helm. That's investing. $10k growth of SP500 is to $28k; Tillinghast laps that many times, reaching $68k to date.

    This fund has had a rough ride YTD. In fact, its long term performance has come with as much volatility as some of the best "Agressive Growth funds". Might it best described as an "Aggressive Value fund"?

    When compared with an Aggressive Growth fund such as POAGX (or older VHCOX) the long term result are almost identical yet these two do "ying and yang" at times (growth / value styles) making them a possible good pairing (50/50 allocation).

    Historically speaking, by combining WHOSX (LT Treasuries) with FLPSX & POAGX at (1/3 allocations each) it helped to reduced Volatility, Max Down down, but provided similar long term results.

    Here's the link:
    https://screencast.com/t/OcGMi0Yty

    PV Site link:
    https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults
  • Lies, damned lies and statistics!
    from Marketwatch:Mutual Fund Comparison
    extreme right column shows 10 yrs. annualized BND is 3.92% and SPY is 11.27%
    BND -0.08% 2.94% 5.16% 10.99% 5.27% 3.85% 3.92%
    SPY -0.19% -11.69% -11.74% -1.21% 7.89% 8.19% 11.27%
    Where is my error?
  • @dsuttr
    BND isn't a long term bond fund, use TLT and the longer-term EDV
  • edited May 2020
    Since inception of TLT since early 2001s {after presumptive [>2.5 major crashes]} until Friday, according to google.com/finance

    iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond
    167.13 USD
    95.45%

    S&P 500 Index
    2,817.17 USD
    162.27%

    The past few wks show fierce rebounds in spy500; maybe fastest recovery ever [of course we are still very young in this new BULL market]

    Am I wrong?

    Bull may turn to Bull **it after summer if have large COVID19 rebounds...



    Unable to find data since 1929
  • beebee
    edited May 2020
    johnN said:


    Unable to find data since 1929

    Not 1929 data, but 1987 - to present:
    WHOSX (TLT) vs VFINX (S&P 500)
    https://screencast.com/t/cYKhbbKQbu8b

    More interesting is a portfolio of equal weight (50% WHOSX / 50% VFINX) produced the same long term results with a lot less voltatility:
    https://screencast.com/t/D1k4jI8Pa
  • re: FD 1000 comments
    l agree that results with TLT are very different from those engendered with BND.
    When i inputted TLT into Market Watch, Fund. Comparison it will only yield for me 1 year return so i tried the comparison with Stock Charts, Performance
    Charts and I compared for ten years TLT and SPY. The results show SPY at +194.7% and TLT +153.1%
    I then went to Chas. Schwab Research on ETF page and compared ten year annualized returns. I found different values but still SPY at +153.58 % outperformed TLT at +74.9%
    Interesting how two reliable firms get similar but not identical results. I guess numbers are fungible and can be maneuvered to prove anything, as I am sure our NY Times corespondent is aware.
  • @dsutter, if you are using the "chart" tool in CS to compare, I believe that graph doesn't take into account dividends.
  • Yes this must be the interpretation, albeit stocks reward more than bonds albeit with more risk.
  • edited May 2020
    @dsuttr

    The below chart offers a small example of VFINX vs WHOSX, 1999 to present date.

    ***Note: both charts are total return, meaning all distributions included.

    Chart

    This period covers, with a little extra; the 20 year period of the article. The line chart is a bit busy at the right edge. For an easy read, at the far left edge of the "days" section at the bottom of the chart, click the green and red icon to present a bar graph with percentages. Stock charts will not allow me to travel longer into the past. Perhaps this is available with a full membership.

    @bee , thank you for your presentations.

    Now, the ultimate return possibility is for one to study your favorite SP500 fund, etf or index (or other growth investment); and a chosen fund as WHOSX, an index or etf that represents long term government bonds. With these two sectors in mind, discover their trend patterns; based upon what is taking placing in the investment world. Either maintain a 50/50 mix or adjust as needed to favor one over the other for "x" time. Run your mix as a personal allocation fund, balanced more to one side from time to time.

    'Course, we all know that the common words for investors when asked the question: "Where are you invested in the stock market?" More often than not, I reply that currently we're invested in bonds and some equity. A blank, questioning look appears upon the face of the one asking the question, "bonds?". The local tv and radio commentators never state that the bond markets closed today at......,eh?

    IMHO, debt (BONDS) is the blood that flows through the veins of equity, and obviously; governments (large and small). Regardless, I don't like the fact of how much debt exists; be it government or corporate. But, this is where the game lays at this point. It is perhaps just as easy to state that too many corporations have stock prices that are inflated, too. Same game, eh?

    Note: This discussion is about government AAA rated bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S, government. Not BBB or similar corporate bonds that may be on the edge of "good junk".

    The widely invested etf's in this space; are: TLT, EDV and ZROZ. TLT generally lags a bit in performance to the other two.

    Ten year chart of the three, limited by inception date.

    You'll likely discover more funds and indexes in this area with a search.

    Lastly, at least for the time frame of the article, is the general long term, positive performance in many bond areas that have offered a lot of support to the performance of moderate and conservative allocation funds. Give a thank you to the mangers who have helped you have a decent return over the years in this area.

    Ok, I'm past my time limit, chores call.:)

    Catch


  • edited May 2020
    thankyou.... probably best to have a diverse [long term holding] portfolio: mixtures of MFs/ETFs/Bonds as mentioned above
  • BUT, all this info will not be accurate true in the next 10 years since rates are so low now. As they say...past performance isn't a guarantee of future returns.
  • @FD1000
    Absolutely. One must remain flexible and adaptable, willing to take time to study and observe. Perhaps most of all, remain curious. When these desires leave, then the decision arrives as to perhaps a desired conservative allocation fund; and remain hands off, eh?


    ***** It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. *****

    Henry David Thoreau
  • Believe me, bonds are what I eat and sleep daily and treasuries are not where I want to invest.
Sign In or Register to comment.