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I think it is too early while the infection rate is still rising rapidly. During 2008 the market bottomed at -40%. The pace of this COVID induced decline is more severe - 30% loss within 2 weeks! Think the bottom is few months away. Tomorrow unemployment figure is due to release and many are expecting a large jump from previous month. So what is the catch for the rise of futures?
Market's been especially irrational. Don Adams, in "Get Smart" was arrested once, even though he's one of the good guys, because he could not blow his Secret Agent cover. He found himself in a cell with a Big Bruiser.
Bruiser: What did you do? Maxwell Smart: I hit a cop. Bruiser: Why did you hit a cop? Maxwell Smart: looks around, as if confused and dumbfounded, and says: "Since when do you need a reason to hit a cop?"
@Crash, That is a good one. How about investors being irrational ? Case in point, several months ago @Catch22 posted a topic "Charles Bolin, MFO commentator. Funds that do well; with falling $/rising inflation write" and a new poster, Simon, who disagree with Mr. Bolin's viewpoints and among other thing. I quote his reply
Simon January 13 Flag I fundamentally disagree with a lot of Charles's viewpoints (for example he believes the economy is in the "latter stages of an expansion" whereas I think the exact opposite is true) but his articles are some of the finest on the web and I always read them. As Catch said - remain curious about life. Thank you Charles.
There were few more unpleasant exchanges between Simon and several experienced MFO posters here. He promptly disappeared from this board. Question is who is rational or irrational if his perspective is on? I ran across Charles Bolin articles awhile back in Seeking Alpha and I found his articles are well articulated and supported with data. Mr. Bolin also contributes to our monthly Commentary. I will repost my earlier posting to @Charles on Escape Plan and it listed several very informative articles from Charles Bolin (Seeking Alpha) on risk and current market condition. https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/123803/#Comment_123803
Several low risk portfolio models were posted in his latest article in Seeking Alpha, the loss was modest, -11% as of March 21st which is excellent in light of what is happening today with S&P500 loss at >30%.
Thank you for the follow up, @Sven. I'm in that bunch these days, seeking shelter from the storm. I'm no trader or momentum guy. Not buy-and-hold forever, I always preferred to do my own homework. "Come in," she said. "I'll give you shelter from the storm."
@Sven, Thank you for the positive feedback. I have learned so much from readers and incorporate the best into my investing methods. I enjoy sharing the research that I am doing and am glad that others find it useful.
Yesterday, the stock market fell 1.5%, supposedly due to an unfavorable employment report. My personal belief is the market is heavily influenced by high frequency algorithm trading in the short term. I also believe that upcoming data on the economy and COVID-19 will drive the market lower over the next few quarters. For now, I believe that it is best to be safe and wait for a better opportunity to rebalance into stocks.
@lynnbolin2020, I really appreciate you for sharing your research and insight. They are invaluable in these challenging time. I couldn't agree more on the impact of COVID-19 on the market.
Yesterday, the stock market fell 1.5%, supposedly due to an unfavorable employment report. My personal belief is the market is heavily influenced by high frequency algorithm trading in the short term. I also believe that upcoming data on the economy and COVID-19 will drive the market lower over the next few quarters. For now, I believe that it is best to be safe and wait for a better opportunity to rebalance into stocks.
I would add that this downturn is far worse than 2008 housing crisis, and the pace of drawdown is unprecedented. In early March the market circuit breaker tripped several time in a day as the % decline was getting out of hand. In less than 7 weeks, the market has lost closed to 30%, and there is more to come as the unemployment number rapidly climbs. Until the infection spread is contained, i.e. exponential growth of infection approaches zero, the unemployment, consumer spending, and corporate earning are all in a very dire situation. I believe we are already in a recession and the earning season is upon us now.
Comments
Dead cat bounce or oversold
We are not sure what the future holds
Stocks price look attractive
We did buy more Tdf2040 SWYGX
Bruiser: What did you do?
Maxwell Smart: I hit a cop.
Bruiser: Why did you hit a cop?
Maxwell Smart: looks around, as if confused and dumbfounded, and says:
"Since when do you need a reason to hit a cop?"
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/123803/#Comment_123803
Several low risk portfolio models were posted in his latest article in Seeking Alpha, the loss was modest, -11% as of March 21st which is excellent in light of what is happening today with S&P500 loss at >30%.
"Come in," she said. "I'll give you shelter from the storm."
Thank you for the positive feedback. I have learned so much from readers and incorporate the best into my investing methods. I enjoy sharing the research that I am doing and am glad that others find it useful.
Yesterday, the stock market fell 1.5%, supposedly due to an unfavorable employment report. My personal belief is the market is heavily influenced by high frequency algorithm trading in the short term. I also believe that upcoming data on the economy and COVID-19 will drive the market lower over the next few quarters. For now, I believe that it is best to be safe and wait for a better opportunity to rebalance into stocks.
Best wishes to all during these uncertain times.
Charles Lynn Bolin ( @lynnbolin2021 )
Stay safe and best investing. Sven