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Hopefully ... This will stop Big Money from running the little investor from the market through continued shorting and selling pressure. Now ... Watch the shorts run for cover!
A little better than an hour before the markets open in the States this morning with stock futures being nicely up accross the board and with the VIC and US Treasury's trending down. (Stocks up ... bonds down).
Thanks @Sevn for pointing out the typo ... VIC should read as VIX.
I wonder what the Russian assets who run Zerohedge think of the current crisis? I wonder what Putin thinks of the Russian assets he invested in at Zerohedge?
Maybe not- there's going to be so many gift packages in that legislation that it will take some time to be fully assimilated and the possible ramifications understood.
Hi guys, with the Fed's now having a green light to buy most capital type assets ... The stock market rally looks to continue. Now watch high yield ... Next stop stocks?
Perhaps the Fed is hoping its aggressive actions will help keep it from having to decide about purchasing stocks (via an index). My hunch is they will seriously consider doing that if the S&P drops below about 2000. It is my understanding it would require congressional authorization.
This morning April 13th looks to be Give Back Monday as the stock futures are down here in the States but up in Europe as I write around 7:30 am ESDT. This is really not unexpected as the S&P 500 Index is at the top of its channel (2700 range) by my thinking and will pull back to the 2500 range and trade near term between these ranges
@MikeM - I have sold certain positions as this snap back rally produced opportunities. Most of those sales have been in REIT's which I was to slow to dispose of initially but have now regained half their losses. I also sold some CEF's I owned to raise cash for buying others I'd rather own when the time comes. One example, in healthcare I sold THQ to eventually add to BME or IHI (an ETF). However overall I am doing no buying at this time.
If I could summarize my current thinking I'd say that the market has a cancer, both structurally and virally related which is being treated with federal chemotherapy. Well, chemo makes you sick(er) too. I'm content to wait it all out.
This morning, April 14th, looks to be Giddy Up Tuesday as the stock futures in Asia, Europe and the States are all up. In addition, with the VIX being back of 40 this could turn out to be a short squeeze day as short volume in the Index (SPY) was 73% (yesterday) of the total volume.
Take Care ... Be Safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
@Old_Skeet. Thanks for much for sharing information on short squeeze. I have to say that I am surprised by the continuing rally despite all the bad news. Based on everything Im hearing and reading, its going to take longer for the economy to reopen than people are expecting. But the Fed is covering alot of risk in their actions so I guess people are feeling safer. I am participating in the rally but last added when the S&P hit 2400. Im at 56% equities.
I highly doubt that mutual fund owners day trade their portfolio's and even if they did all they'd get would be end of day prices. ETF's of course behave differently. Add or subtract if you want but for now it's all just mostly guess work. Feeling lucky?
Good morning. In checking a few things this morning the futures look to be up in Europe and the States ... the options market is sending a cautious bullish signal ... and, the VIX is now down to the mid thirties. I'm still with my thoughts that stocks will be mostly be range bound, but with a slight upward tilt, as we move thorugh most of the summer months. The short volume in the Index was elevated yesterday with a reading in the 70% range of total volume for SPY. Perhaps, today they will do some covering.
I have the Index as of market close 4/15 down -17.8% off its closing 52 week high and up +24.4% from its closing 52 week low. With this, I am not looking for stocks to have the upward surge that they have had the past couple of weeks as things most likely will move more slowly and... hopefully ... upwards as we work our way through Q1 earning season. In checking my source ... S&P is projecting that TTM earnings for the S&P 500 Index will be in the mid 130's. With an earnings yield of 5% this puts the Index with a valuation somewhere around 2700 range. From the 2700 range ... I'm thinking ... we will move upwards with good news and downward with bad. And, by the way, Old_Skeet's market barometer has the Index at fair value on it's scale as I write.
Have a good day ... be safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
FD1000 says, my reporting is wrong and ... "In the last 2 days, the VIX is around 40"
My source is linked below. I stand by my statement and it can be postured by visiting the link below. Just hover over the VIX in the matrix and you can see that for the past couple of days the VIX has been back of the 40's and in the mid 30's. Click in it and it becomes more revealing.
This now makes count two, from my perspective, that you have engaged me and I have withstood the challenge coming from you, FD1000, not once but now twice.
This person certaintly seems to enjoy striffe not only with me but others as well. Howerver, on the bright side of things, their challenges, now twice failed, have given even more credence to my postings.
Hi @VintageFreak, I share your concerns. With the low yields on cash ... and, the thought that equities will run low on gas ... I hope to be at my target allocation of 10% cash, 45% income and 45% equity come the first part of summer. Within equities I'm about half in the good dividend paying value type funds with the other half being in growth.
FD1000 says, my reporting is wrong and ... "In the last 2 days, the VIX is around 40"
My source is linked below. I stand by my statement and it can be postured by visiting the link below. Just hover over the VIX in the matrix and you can see that for the past couple of days the VIX has been back of the 40's and in the mid 30's. Click in it and it becomes more revealing.
This now makes count two, from my perspective, that you have engaged me and I have withstood the challenge coming from you, FD1000, not once but now twice.
This person certaintly seems to enjoy striffe not only with me but others as well. Howerver, on the bright side of things, their challenges, now twice failed, have given even more credence to my postings.
Looks like today, Monday April 20th, will be "Take Back Monday" as the stock futures are down across the board. This should be expected as stocks have had a strong run coming off their 52 week low by a little better than 28%. Time, for me, to book some profit and start my rebalance process. Have a great day ... be safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Hi Guys, Today is Tuesday 4/21 (around 7:50am) and it is not looking to start well with the stock futures down across the board. The VIX has climbed back towards the 40's reading after being down in the mid 30's. In addition, the money feed, in the barometer, moved from 63 to 50 which indicates that some investors are now booking profit from the recent stock market's upward run. I have the big stock Index (S&P 500) pulling back yesterday just short of 2% (1.8%) leaving it with about a 26% gain above it's 52 week low.
I did a little selling yesterday and reduced my equity allocation from the 49% to the 47% range. My next sell step, in my rebalance process should the Index continue its descent, is around the 2685 mark. Otherwise, my next calendar sell step will come sometime during the first part of May. After my next sell step I plan to hold, for a while, at an asset allocation of about 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity. From this asset allocation, I will either move towards a 10/45/45 or 20/40/40. At the moment I'm in flux as I ponder how much cash to hold and I could wind up at 15/45/40 as cash is paying very little in the form of yield.
I'm still with my thoughts that the Index will settle into a trading range bewteen 2500 to 2700 ranges. However, please know it can move above, or below, these numbers based upon news of events and happenings.
For now, I sit and watch.
Thanks for stopping by and reading ... be careful ... stay safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Good morning. As I write ... Today is looking better as the stock futures are up across the board in the States, Europe and Asia. Over the past two days there has been a lot of selling as the money feed in the barometer moved from a reading of 63 down to 33 with the VIX rising above 40 from the mid 30's. However, the short volume in the S&P 500 declined from the low 70's to the low 50's as valuations pulled back. This is good. For me, having more than a full allocation to equities all I am doing is just watching and pondering the best asset allocation for me to run with and not venturing to far form my 20/40/40 base allocation. I'm thinking that stocks will provide the better upside between now and year end so I'll probally stay equity heavy at about 45%, income at about 40% and cash at about 15%. With this, I'm now left to buy in the income area of my portfolio by about 2% and reduce equities by another 2% based upon current valuations and this leaves me some cash that I can play with in the markets without drawing it below the 10%/12% range.
Have a Great Day ... be safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Comments
Thanks @Sevn for pointing out the typo ... VIC should read as VIX.
Market is up in hoping the $2 trillion QE package will pass this week.
If I could summarize my current thinking I'd say that the market has a cancer, both structurally and virally related which is being treated with federal chemotherapy. Well, chemo makes you sick(er) too. I'm content to wait it all out.
Take Care ... Be Safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
I have the Index as of market close 4/15 down -17.8% off its closing 52 week high and up +24.4% from its closing 52 week low. With this, I am not looking for stocks to have the upward surge that they have had the past couple of weeks as things most likely will move more slowly and... hopefully ... upwards as we work our way through Q1 earning season. In checking my source ... S&P is projecting that TTM earnings for the S&P 500 Index will be in the mid 130's. With an earnings yield of 5% this puts the Index with a valuation somewhere around 2700 range. From the 2700 range ... I'm thinking ... we will move upwards with good news and downward with bad. And, by the way, Old_Skeet's market barometer has the Index at fair value on it's scale as I write.
Have a good day ... be safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
FD1000 says, my reporting is wrong and ... "In the last 2 days, the VIX is around 40"
My source is linked below. I stand by my statement and it can be postured by visiting the link below. Just hover over the VIX in the matrix and you can see that for the past couple of days the VIX has been back of the 40's and in the mid 30's. Click in it and it becomes more revealing.
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
This now makes count two, from my perspective, that you have engaged me and I have withstood the challenge coming from you, FD1000, not once but now twice.
This person certaintly seems to enjoy striffe not only with me but others as well. Howerver, on the bright side of things, their challenges, now twice failed, have given even more credence to my postings.
April 15-16 VIX > 40
another (source)
Another (source)
==========
BTW, I can't remember the second challenge, please remind me
4:10 PM - VIX ended the day around 43.
I did a little selling yesterday and reduced my equity allocation from the 49% to the 47% range. My next sell step, in my rebalance process should the Index continue its descent, is around the 2685 mark. Otherwise, my next calendar sell step will come sometime during the first part of May. After my next sell step I plan to hold, for a while, at an asset allocation of about 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity. From this asset allocation, I will either move towards a 10/45/45 or 20/40/40. At the moment I'm in flux as I ponder how much cash to hold and I could wind up at 15/45/40 as cash is paying very little in the form of yield.
I'm still with my thoughts that the Index will settle into a trading range bewteen 2500 to 2700 ranges. However, please know it can move above, or below, these numbers based upon news of events and happenings.
For now, I sit and watch.
Thanks for stopping by and reading ... be careful ... stay safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
and now is at 47.65 at 11:45 PM
I follow the VIX + many other indexes/ETF during the day at Yahoo which is accurate too (VIX)
Have a Great Day ... be safe ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."