Howdy folks,
Viking just cancelled our Med cruise for next month. That's good because even with trip insurance, you're not covered for fear or even pandemics. They offered 125% of monies paid to them in a voucher OR 100% cash back. Sorry but we're taking the cash, TYVM.
NBA cancelled the remainder of their regular season and the NCAA banned fans from March Madness and frankly, they'll end up having to cancel the Dance. Rats, my Spartans are a 10 - 1 fav. Oh well.
What we have to do, each an every one of us, is to see into the future of an economy without F@F interaction. That's the world that we'll wake up in after the Great Depression. Yeah, I said it. This won't be a recession, but a global depression where the quality of life declines for the majority. Look around you and notice that the economy is screeching to a halt. Look at Italy. They just ordered everything nationwide closed other than grocery stores, pharmacies and bank. Do you realize what this does to the service industry? These workers don't have sick leave and don't have savings and are going to truly suffer. Oh, yeah, Donny's wants to cut the payroll tax (that supports SS and Medicare) for people that won't be working you blithering idiot. How about no school and the kids are home but mom and dad both work?
My shopping list for the future includes those retailers that have mastered online shopping - Walmart, target, Home Deport, Kohls, Amazon. Many peeps are going to be forced to buy stuff online including groceries that they have delivered. They'll find out they like it. Think about the percentage THAT NEVER GO BACK to a brick and mortar store. You can bury most of the B&M chains as well as sit-down restaurants and movie theaters.
The world is changing before our eyes.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Comments
T. Friedman was on this morning and outlined 6 steps. Get Bezos to deal with PPE, Gates to deal with the vaccine. Drop all tariffs to zero. Have Don, Nancy and Chuck got to Camp David and NOT LEAVE until they come up with a fiscal stimulus plan. Squeeze the Sauds to increase production. - can't remember 6, but basically take a WWIII approach like you suggest - full bloody mobilization.
Alas and alack, none of it will happen. Hell, Don won't even declare a National Emergency that would free up billions because it wouldn't look good on his resume'.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Feeling kind of clueless here at the rapidity of seemingly everything falling apart. Fleck still likes AU - and the miners. I hold a tad plus what’s in PRPFX. But Geez - down another $50 early today and the miners lost around 8% yesterday alone.
The Bush crash starting in 2007 led to about a 50% decline in equities - a bit less at home and a bit more overseas as I recall. My holdings fell 21% in 2008 as I was aggressively buying down. Today, older and more cautious, the loss on a 50% bear market should be about 15-20% for myself. That’s the kind of loss equity investors should be able to tolerate every so often. Pay-back for the good times.
I don’t know if the Trump crash will be as bad as the Bush one was. Much different circumstances - and starting from a grossly overvalued market IMHO. But my gut tells me we won’t snap back from whatever this one is in a few years like we did before either. (And the likes of Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner are nowhere to be found.)
Personally - nibbling at PIEQX a non N America developed index. I think it will beat the pennies cash now pays over a few years. Some European markets down 10% today. End of March I’ll rebalance everything, including hard hit PRNEX. Debating adding a small spec in miners today.
I will admit it's harder to keep buying on the drops, at least for me, but holding to much dry powder , buying looks to be a good idea at this time.
Different strokes for different Folks , Derf
Take care- OJ
For example: at the most basic employment level, in-home services of one kind or another- who will want workers coming into their homes, and how many of those service workers will want to go into homes with unknown health situations?
Like you, I expect home delivery of everything from groceries on up to radically increase. But even handling delivered parcels will make folks a little nervous, yes? How do you know who might have sneezed on that bag?
Public transit (which I and my wife use constantly)?
Theater, concerts/opera/symphony/sports events?
Our national health "system"?
Good luck on all of this.
OJ
Maybe south pole little warmer now
No people closed to you within in 6 ft
Beto Camala 2020!