Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Lewis, I'll add this graphic list that I view for global real time. Opps, intended to add FINVIZ for those interested in other areas. And this is a decent page to view through the day or at trading day's end, representing various ETF actions in numerous market types. This page will begin to actively change through the U.S. open markets period. Good Evening, Catch
While markets pretty much reverted to their previous “blindly we stroll along” pattern, last night’s action was still insightful. Around 8 PM gold had shot up $35 to over $1600 - a significant advance. It retraced all that overnight and was again under $1600 in the morning. NYMEX briefly spiked by over 4%. As already noted, equity futures were off quite sharply last evening.
My crystal ball tells me equities are skating on thin ice - but seemingly in an unstoppable glide higher. Only the most dire of possibilities seems to briefly knock the wind out of their sails. Some day that will change. Who knows when? Gold is, and has been, in an uptrend for nearly a year. The underlying rationale seems to have more to do with central bank easing than with any “end of the world” scenario. It’s curious and worthy of note that the miners haven’t followed gold higher these past few days during which geo-political concerns have heightened.
Oil is entirely unpredictable. The immediate scare involved possible closing of the narrow Persian Gulf through which much of the world’s oil passes. That would be highly disruptive to global commerce. But longer term there are the many competing forces as @Mark and others have noted previously that make oil hard to figure out. Among those forces are increasing energy consumption by an industrialized world in the face of increased environmental concerns, competing energy sources, new oil discoveries and fracking here at home. So, I haven’t been able to figure out oil - and even the great Boone Pickens couldn’t either towards the end of his life. That said, I wouldn’t want to be without some small exposure to oil / refiners, if only for the purpose of diversification. One need not own an energy fund to obtain small exposure. PRNEX, for one, works nicely.
@Mark -- You mean the tweet from the twit, as we are in uncharted waters now. /ducks
@Hank -- Yeah, my oil/"energy" stocks have been up as of late -- EPD in particular, plus some of the utes. But I no longer actively trade on news so I'm just monitoring things and not panicking.
@Hank -- Yeah, my oil/"energy" stocks have been up as of late -- EPD in particular, plus some of the utes. - Oil’s been in a “stealth” rally for most of 2019. Everybody’s so engrossed by equities (and maybe bonds) that many failed to notice oil’s advance from around $50 to near $70 at year’s end. I don’t own an energy funds. But PRNEX - heavy in refiners - had a great second half after years of poor performance. That said, oil’s nowhere near the $100+ reached years ago. (BTW - oil’s strength accounts for some of high yield’s 2019 performance.)
Just a thought ... I’m starting to think that rather than experiencing a sudden “bear market”, equities may just “wither on the vine” (at first anyway) as inflation-linked assets (including gold) surpass them in performance. Today’s investors are a fickle lot. Once some other asset starts to outperform, investors will meld way - in drips and drabs at first.
@hank As to gold the metal, not the miners necessarily; that USD strength will continue to have an affect in this area, as well as some other commodity areas.........being these products are USD cost based.
Comments
I'll add this graphic list that I view for global real time.
Opps, intended to add FINVIZ for those interested in other areas.
And this is a decent page to view through the day or at trading day's end, representing various ETF actions in numerous market types. This page will begin to actively change through the U.S. open markets period.
Good Evening,
Catch
Limited war likely, lots pokers face/players
Futures are flat-to-up now at 0740 ET.
Middle East crisis? What crisis?
My crystal ball tells me equities are skating on thin ice - but seemingly in an unstoppable glide higher. Only the most dire of possibilities seems to briefly knock the wind out of their sails. Some day that will change. Who knows when? Gold is, and has been, in an uptrend for nearly a year. The underlying rationale seems to have more to do with central bank easing than with any “end of the world” scenario. It’s curious and worthy of note that the miners haven’t followed gold higher these past few days during which geo-political concerns have heightened.
Oil is entirely unpredictable. The immediate scare involved possible closing of the narrow Persian Gulf through which much of the world’s oil passes. That would be highly disruptive to global commerce. But longer term there are the many competing forces as @Mark and others have noted previously that make oil hard to figure out. Among those forces are increasing energy consumption by an industrialized world in the face of increased environmental concerns, competing energy sources, new oil discoveries and fracking here at home. So, I haven’t been able to figure out oil - and even the great Boone Pickens couldn’t either towards the end of his life. That said, I wouldn’t want to be without some small exposure to oil / refiners, if only for the purpose of diversification. One need not own an energy fund to obtain small exposure. PRNEX, for one, works nicely.
@Hank -- Yeah, my oil/"energy" stocks have been up as of late -- EPD in particular, plus some of the utes. But I no longer actively trade on news so I'm just monitoring things and not panicking.
-
Oil’s been in a “stealth” rally for most of 2019. Everybody’s so engrossed by equities (and maybe bonds) that many failed to notice oil’s advance from around $50 to near $70 at year’s end.
I don’t own an energy funds. But PRNEX - heavy in refiners - had a great second half after years of poor performance. That said, oil’s nowhere near the $100+ reached years ago. (BTW - oil’s strength accounts for some of high yield’s 2019 performance.)
Just a thought ... I’m starting to think that rather than experiencing a sudden “bear market”, equities may just “wither on the vine” (at first anyway) as inflation-linked assets (including gold) surpass them in performance. Today’s investors are a fickle lot. Once some other asset starts to outperform, investors will meld way - in drips and drabs at first.
As to gold the metal, not the miners necessarily; that USD strength will continue to have an affect in this area, as well as some other commodity areas.........being these products are USD cost based.