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Investors Can’t Seem To Get Enough Bond Funds: $121 Billion In Bond ETFs
Not sure bonds (except for maybe high yield) are the place to be. 2020 may be the reverse of 2019 as the 10 year moves to the 2.50 to 3% range. The negative rate scenario may also be a thing of the past in places like Europe next year. End of the day my only holding will be IOFIX but lightening up a bit there too just in case. The fundamentals still look compelling for that niche bond fund but never know when investors will sell en masse anything bond related.
U.S. bond prices I follow for reference peaked around Sept. 3. This includes gov't. issues, broad based IG corp. and high yield munis. IOFIX referenced by @Junkster , and a decent HY fund of ARTFX continues an up trend from Sept. 3, but the gains remain less so than from the beginning of the year. A general overview of U.S. bonds from Sept. 3 indicate up and down moves that were of consequence for short periods, but as of Nov. 6 this 2 month period is FLAT to negative, for price profits. I suggest a bottom in pricing that may be held could be the result of international monies wanting to hold bonds, but will continue to stay away from the negative yield world. A 10 yr Treasury may not look like much here at 1.8% yield, but is a decent spread from a negative -.5% in Euroland. My 2 cents about the current bondland.
U.S. bond prices I follow for reference peaked around Sept. 3. This includes gov't. issues, broad based IG corp. and high yield munis. IOFIX referenced by @Junkster , and a decent HY fund of ARTFX continues an up trend from Sept. 3, but the gains remain less so than from the beginning of the year. A general overview of U.S. bonds from Sept. 3 indicate up and down moves that were of consequence for short periods, but as of Nov. 6 this 2 month period is FLAT for price profits. I suggest a bottom in pricing that may be held could be the result of international monies wanting to hold bonds, but will continue to stay away from the negative yield world. A 10 yr Treasury may not look like much here at 1.8% yield, but is a decent spread from a negative -.5% in Euroland. My 2 cents about the current bondland.
@catch22, there has been a huge move in bund rates the past month. The German 30 year has gone from negative to positive. The 10 year at -0.24% should follow. Our 10 year is at 1.96 today. I can get 1.80 from a Fidelity money market fund. I think the current steepening of the yield curve has only just begun. But we shall see. I am no expert. Then again, the last expert I referenced a month or so ago said you better buy up all the bonds you can get, especially the 30 year when it was at 2.01%. Not the best advice so far.
For those reading this thread, below is an easy read list for yields. The major countries 10 year yield starts the list, with other time frame/yields as you scroll down. These numbers are updated daily on trading days. @Junkster , agree with the note about buying the 30 year at 2.01%. And yes, the long bonds have one hell of a ride this year; but of course, become more subject to profit taking by the smart bond traders. I do follow EDV and LTPZ for a view of this area. Excellent profits with both of these if one has their head to the trading screen and gonads of steel; and happens to catch the buy and sell correctly.
With all this talk on bonds and with the Schwab MM now down to 1.62%, I'm adding to my 2 bond funds, IOFAX and MAINX. Both have about the same return YTD, ~11%, and maintaining steady, persistent upward trends.
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I suggest a bottom in pricing that may be held could be the result of international monies wanting to hold bonds, but will continue to stay away from the negative yield world. A 10 yr Treasury may not look like much here at 1.8% yield, but is a decent spread from a negative -.5% in Euroland.
My 2 cents about the current bondland.
@Junkster , agree with the note about buying the 30 year at 2.01%. And yes, the long bonds have one hell of a ride this year; but of course, become more subject to profit taking by the smart bond traders. I do follow EDV and LTPZ for a view of this area. Excellent profits with both of these if one has their head to the trading screen and gonads of steel; and happens to catch the buy and sell correctly.
Global bond yields list