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BUY - SELL - HOLD October

Hi guys,
Where do you start big drops, impeachments, global slowdown, BritEX......? It's like a bad dream.....it never ends. Nothing is ever solved or ends. Only more things get added to the mix. With the drop today, I have started a small watch position in FSENX, as I think energy will go lower over time. I will add.....why? I think Iran will poke the Big Dog again, and the Blonde One will have to do something. Hence, a spike in prices. I also am looking at LALDX and FCONX for money instead of mm. Would appreciate any feedback on them.
God bless
the Pudd

Comments

  • edited October 2019
    Hi @Puddnhead,

    My fund managers must be thinking along the same lines as you when it comes to energy as I am close to a double weight without putting a spiff (special investment) in place myself.

    In the past, LALDX has been one of my holdings within my income sleeve. I closed it when interest rates began to rise a few years back and moved the money into the formulation of my CD Ladder. At this time I have no plans to return to LALDX. However, come December when I have a CD mature I'll be looking at options including expanding my position in PCOXX as it is now yielding more than most currently offered 12 to 24 month CD's. With this, I've got a couple months to ponder on this.

    I wish all ... "Good Investing."

    Skeet

  • @Puddnhead: it’s not the start of the drop I want to know, it’s the bottom. Will you ring the bell for all of us???
  • @_PUddnhead - hi sir, been adding to VDE and bought couple of energy private corp the past few months
  • edited October 2019
    I’m only beginning to understand the limitations advancing age imposes on your ability to invest. Been slowly taking risk off the table over past year or so. It’s been a good year - but my 10% exposure to “real assets” (notably energy) really stings as of late. No place to run IMHO. Gold’s hot - but you can lose a fortune overnight with the stuff. Cash returns are paltry. Most bonds are dicey at these rates. You younger ones (under 60 or 65) still have time to recover after a big downdraft. Indeed, you’d be wise to stock up on equities should prices drop very far.

    I favor global over domestic equities and so have shifted some to RPGAX from domestic funds recently. Sold my real estate fund earlier this week after a 25%+ YTD runup. Been hot for several years. I know from past experience this sector is prone to big, long-lasting swings. Steady / falling rates have provided a tailwind for the real estate sector. Fed and central banks can continue trying to hold interest rates down. But at some point they lose control. Ask yourself why you’d lend your money to somebody who promised to give you less back in 5 or 10 years than you lent them? Crazy.
  • It is crazy. Consumer staples with growth rates of 3% have PE of 20 ??? Real Estate up 25 to 30% Treasuries up 30%
    Nothing is cheap but if you stay in cash you look silly at under 2% now. Until you don't.

    At 67 I am only 20% in equities. Early in retirement is not the time to swallow a 30% portfolio hit, but I have been waiting for a couple of years now.

    The contrarian play is higher inflation.
  • "...The contrarian play is higher inflation. "
    Well, we've all been paying more to get less for some time, now. Easiest to see in the supermarket. That half-gallon of ice cream is not a half-gallon, anymore. Triscuits. A pound of hot dogs? Guess again. Package tells me I'm buying just 12 ounces of the stuff, last time I was in. Breakfast cereal. Cottage cheese. Soda pop. Thankfully, a pound IS still a pound when you order burger or a steak or fish or deli meats or cheeses. Some years ago I was at a deli counter in Calgary and suddenly realized I didn't know how many (effing) GRAMS I wanted of salami. I waited to hear what other customers did, first, before making my order. Cheese up there is downright exorbitant. My buddy looks for excuses to go buy food on the US side of the border. But my $134 co-pay inhaler costs $34 CAD, in Canada-land. We are all taking it in the shorts. Every single day.
  • Hi guys,
    Skeeter: You and John are making me nervous!! PCOXX I can't get at Fido. What else you got and what do you think about FCONX? Just saying......

    Ben: If I knew when to ring the bell, my ass would not be here. I'd be on my yacht cruising to my own island with my multi-million dollar mansion on it. LOL.....

    Hank! Hank! Hank!: Sold your real estate fund for a 25% gain this year. Really.....do you have a monthly newsletter that I can subscribe to? LOL. But the rest I agree with.....where will it end?

    sma3: Understood. I'm also cash heavy. 2% looks good now.

    Crash: It's been going on for years, i.e., gas mileage, say, from the 70's......the better you lie, the better chance you have to be President.


    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Hi @Puddnhead. One that I took a look at after one of David's commentaries and decided to put in my withdrawal bucket for now is AOUAX. Somewhat in place of the low CD rates available now. The take I get is that it is a similar strategy to IOFAX but shorter durations and maybe less risky loans. That strategy with non-agency MBS may be long in the tooth but still an up trend for now.
  • Speaking of contrarian, I recently invested the minimum of 2k into Grandeur peaks Contrarian fund. Unfortunately I was two or three days early. I'll be adding to it Quarterly.
    Derf
  • edited October 2019
    Hi Sirs. Still young buck has many yrs left before reitiring so we keep buying more equities in our portfolio...

    If course if we are 65 yrs+we would think differently : Mama retired portfolio got Fbnd FRDDX (govt fund) lsbrx jnk fidelity2015 and pci - - - bulk holdings vehicles add up ~80%of portfolio.. .. Little fidelity contrarian fund because she liked that fund... Also couple good nonjunk bonds A Or BBB+ HOLDINGS like att and Ford cvspharmacy. Been adding FBND And pci

    Fconx looks great probably next one add to mama portfolio
  • @Derf: After getting out of GP last year, I too sent in a check for the Contrarian Fund. I think it hasn't hit $4M in assets yet. Biotech seems to be widely despised, so I made a bet on FBT in hopes of a comeback. These could well be falling knives
  • edited October 2019
    @Puddnhead, As you requested. Here are the tickers for money market mutual funds that I own that have TTM yields north of 2.0%. They are PCOXX, AMAXX & GBAXX. I'm finding current cd rates for 18mo to 24 mo cd's at 1.8% to 1.9%. So, with this, as it presently stands, I'll probally roll the cd I have maturing in December into a mmk fund. This will keep the money liquid and still in the confines of the cash area of my portfolio.
  • edited October 2019
    Hi MikeM,
    Yeah, looked up AOUAX. Looks good! One catch: it has a 2.22% load at Fido. Since I was here last, have found TRBUX, which also looks good.....with no load. But I'm still looking.....and thanks for the input.

    Skeeter,
    I have Fido's MM.....not as good, I know. Am also thinking CDs but not sure I want to tie up my money the way this market jumps around.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited October 2019
    Sold off one of my money market mutual funds since there has been news, of late, about liquidity concerns in the repo market. Sold GBAXX on Monday and received the funds late Tuesday evening. I now hold in my investment cash sleeve two mmk funds (AMAXX and PCOXX) plus a three step CD ladder.
  • edited October 2019
    Old_Skeet said:

    Sold off one of my money market mutual funds since there has been news, of late, about liquidity concerns in the repo market.

    Here’s a Bloomberg story about what some are calling the “repo mess.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-22/repo-market-s-liquidity-crisis-has-been-a-decade-in-the-making

    After I fully comprehend @Catch22’s post re quantum computing *, along with why people are buying negative yielding bonds , I’ll try to get my head around repos. However, it seems to me that if repos came unglued it would throw many other global markets into turmoil - probably equities and, even more likely, funds that employ derivatives / leverage in pursuit of outsized gains. If you’ve been waiting for a sharp reversal in interest rates, this might be the cow that finally kicks the can over (to milk a metaphor to death).

    *Here’s a link to Catch’s quantum computing story: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/53776/google-has-given-us-the-first-experimental-evidence-that-quantum-speed-up-is-achievable-real-world
  • edited October 2019
    Hi guys,

    FWIW ...

    My reasoning in reducing the amount held in money market mutual funds.

    I wanted to carry some extra liquid cash in case there is a selloff in the stock market. With this, I decided to carry extra demand cash to facilitate possible buying opportunities in a down stock market without having to deal with raising demand cash while I was also doing some equity buying. And, yes ... I've already made my equity buy list.

    My thinking ... Most government money market mutual funds invest in US Treasuries (short term) and if the repo market is seized up (with not enough buyers of Treasuries) then this creates chaos in the repo market with there being more sellers than buyers. This could delay being paid or even getting paid short of a whole dollar should there be a run and unfunded lending pressure in the repo market if seized.

    I am still with my overall asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. However, not all of my cash assets are of the liquid type as the cash area of my portfolio consist of demand cash, money market funds and a CD ladder.

    In selling one of my money market mutual funds I was just raising the amount of demand cash held within the cash area of my portfolio and not raising my overall cash level. Within the cash area I'm about 25% demand, 25% money market and 50% CD's.

    Skeet

  • Howdy folks,

    Love reading your thoughts.

    I'm staying in a rope-a-dope with my heavy parking place at Price RPSIX. Still riding my momentum play in the junior silver miners, but standing pat as things resolve themselves. I still really like stocks that pay me a dividend particularly if I'm customer of theirs [read: T, CMS, VZ] and can never, ever, ever stay away from NCV with a yield of 11%.

    Couple of thought from above. Being older absolutely changes your approach to risk as you don't have the time to 'revert to the mean'. This is compounded if this is an account from which you're taking distributions. The 2000 dot.com meltdown impacted my wifes 401(k) distributing acct from Vanguard it ran out in about 12 years. And it was invested very conservatively.

    Inflation. The tricks they play with the numbers are obscene. Hedonic adjustments (i.e. if it's new and improved they can charge more without it counting. Can you still get the old unimproved model?) Is hamburger a substitute for stead? Which housing metric dampens the number? feh. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
    Whether you care for shadow stats or not, it is one measure of inflation that seems to better reflect what I experience every day.

    Lastly, this too shall pass and I too have my shopping list.

    However, I must admit that I am ashamed to be an American and I spent 20 months in 'nam.

    and so it goes,

    peace,

    rono
  • Hi @rono
    Thank you for your redo ink to shadowstats. There are those here who may not have know of the site previous, and the old timers who had forgotten.
    I'm absolutely positive inflation is running more than the gov't provided CPI increase (1.6%) for 2020 for SS, etc.
    As you've noted numerous times, invest in what you use as a consumer, too.....local utils, etc. A "pay yourself" investment plan, eh?
    Neighbor chat indicates that their Plan F supplemental health coverage premium will increase 9.6% in 2020. Insurance is insurance for a reason and they've had a need for this over the years and are pleased they had the extra coverage. I've expressed previous, that to help offset the rising costs of healthcare to invest in the sector. A good example is FSPHX, with an inception date of 1981. The lifetime annualized return is 15.4%. There are plenty of decent healthcare investments from the broadbased to the more narrow sectors, as with an etf of IHI (medical tech./devices).

    Take care,
    Catch
  • Hi Catch,
    Yeah, I also like healthcare as you do.....not as much now as a few years ago. Also own FSPHX and FSMEX. I think you do also. Have added to GIBLX and PTIAX with the 10 year at 1.80. Also have added to FSENX on Friday. Have made 6.3% on the first investment on 10/2. Too bad it was so small. Other things I'm looking at: YAFFX, TWEIX, THOPX, and TRBUX. I think we go higher from here. My biggest regret is that I did not add to VWINX when I had a chance at the end of last year. One last question: is a municipal fund worthwhile in an IRA? Have been thinking about EALBX.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • I've held TWEIX THOPX and TRBUX for a number of years-satisfied with the role they play in my investments.
  • Switched 2/3 of my stake in BCSVX to ARTJX. Still seeing FBT pay off, after I rolled a couple of dice on a biotech revival. BIIB’s surprise news on its Altzheimer’s drug the other day has helped the entire sector. Luck plays a role in investing; the problem is how to avoid the bad luck.
  • Hi carew388,
    That's good to hear. As I go more conservative, I want good things before it hits the fan. And I know it could be a while. I'm just too old for the big hit, so will play the slow game.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Hi guys,
    Wondering....did anybody listen to Fido's quarterly report today? If so, what are your thoughts?
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited October 2019
    @Puddnhead
    For benefit of others: Fidelity Quarterly report, sectors report October 29.
    Our house remains healthcare and tech. for the equity side, and investment grade bonds for the bond portion; with a cash position looking for a home in the next few weeks.

    Lastly, as to your earlier question about about a muni fund in an IRA. I do not find a reason to place muni's inside an IRA. Below in bold is the Fidelity reply when one attempts a muni purchase in an IRA account:
    The security you are attempting to trade is a tax-free mutual fund. Retirement accounts are prevented from buying or exchanging into tax-free mutual funds through the electronic channels. For more information, contact a Fidelity representative at 800-544-6666.
    Good evening,
    Catch
  • Hi Catch,
    Thanks for the info. The muni thing.....just trying to do better than mm. Have bought TRBUX in that space. carew388 liked it also. Lots of quality stuff. Thanks for the Q update. Will use it in November thread.
    New buys are: FSENX (down 2.6% today, so got some); also bought MLPFX and added to GLFOX. The chart is looking good. Might sell some healthcare soon the way it's running. Will try to pick some up later.....near elections, when it's cheaper.....hopefully.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Retirement accounts are prevented from buying or exchanging into tax-free mutual funds through the electronic channels.
    Wow, that seems very strange to me that a fund company would decide what is acceptable in your portfolio. I don't believe Schwab does that. I've owned a municipal bond ETF for the last couple years, PZA, in my IRA with pretty good results in total return and a nice 4.7% yield. I could be fooling myself but I think of it as lower risk than say corporate bonds.
  • edited October 2019
    Tentatively selling two junk bond funds tomorrow and rolling part of the proceeds into IOFIX. That will take me from 79% to 83% in IOFIX. Last November was when this fund had its largest drawdown. Hopefully this November won’t be a repeat. Back then you had equites tumbling, credit spreads blowing out, and short term rates on the rise. I doubt in my lifetime I will ever again find such a steady eddie of a fund. Also holding two small positions in preferred funds APEIX and PFINX.
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