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Lots of Bullishness in the markets...anyone buying it?
Polling confidence levels as well as areas of investment interest...I personally like the wider approach of choices...VTI (Total US), VGTSX (Total International), VT (Total Global)...
We may be (equity) on pullbacks from the market rocket launch in the first week of this new year. Probably an equity market sell signal, if this house begins to buy. We have not been to an equity dance for some time now.
Not buying, but holding the moderate overweight to small caps and EAFE initiated ~ first of December ... looking at this as more or less the usual turn of the year bull run. When it cools, the plan is to underweight U.S. stocks, equal weight EAFE, & continue building overweight in EM, primarily through Matthews and Seafarer. I'm keeping in mind we've got another debt ceiling fiasco on the horizon, and that last time stocks took a pounding and 'safe' bonds rallied.
Hi bee. Question could be taken 2 ways: (1) buying the bullishness or (2) buying the market. "Yes" to the first. "No" to the latter. (I'll accept there's much bullishness, but am not adding to equity or other risk-on assets)
(Background info: 70's, retired, no debt, pensions & SS adequate for ongoing expenses, so far.)
What to do? Bond funds started to be nibbled away day after day by market mice; where else to put the money beside equity?
We're now at cash/43%, bonds/22% and equity/35%. This is both the lowest for bond funds and the highest for equity funds that we have been at for several years now. Wasn't trying to "time" the market, but got lucky on recent advance. Equity "values" approaching 2007 again... now THAT's a definite worry. But again, where oh where to put spare cash? Not planning to increase anything beyond where we are now. We shall see...
Buying and/or adding to equities here-and-there that primarily 1:) provide income and 2:) I have a longer/long term view on. Additionally, I'm looking more for enjoyably boring names lately.
Hi philpill, Sell "all" bond funds. Be conservative with an equity portfolio, but no equity market weakness support from any bond funds? Just curious. Regards, Catch
Neither adding or subtracting. My portfolio was positioned before the end of the old year and the market at this time is telling me to leave it alone. When it changes its mind so maybe shall I.
One thing I am watching quite closely is the price action in MLP's in general and the oil & gas MLP's in particular. I see that iPath has applied to open a MLP ETN and a number of equity/dividend funds have added them to their holdings. I'm always cautious when new(?) themes seem to be the rage and I'm not sure if these equities are held in weak or strong hands. I will say that I am sitting on some deployable cash should this little group take a hit for whatever reason save a change in fundamentals.
Reply to @Mark: I think when dividend taxes went up less than expected, MLPs really jumped. I have a couple of MLPs (and one Canadian spin-off) as well as a couple of MLP parent co's and they have performed exceedingly well since the start of the year. I will not be adding any more to these plays as I already have a very large allocation to them, but they are all long-term holds and do plan on reinvesting dividends. I do think the oil/gas pipeline theme is a very good mid-to-long term theme, and while they may become overbought at times, I'm not going to try and trade in and out of them.
Additionally, I thought it was of interest that Obama's once potential (she's since withdrawn) Secretary of State had a very substantial amount (about a third) of her investments in Canadian oil and pipeline stocks like Transcanada and Enbridge. Not an attempt to be political, but a note that someone quite politically connected seemed rather confident in the general sector.
Reply to @catch22: catch, first I admire your portfolio and literary comments about choices you detail. your results are consistent while engendering little angst and you surely sleep better than Philpill.
still, the market is a study between perception and reality and this always is a constantly changing variable. what works last year may not this year and so I have dumped all PIMCO funds that shone with leveraged income because my perception is that interest rates will not fall and with an inflationary minded chief executive paper will devalue and interest rates must rise. my barometric indicator TBT rose 9.5 % in only one month while TLT declined 5%. this is a very ominous precursor for future bond returns.
Catch, I may be wrong, I usually am, but I would suggest conservative and moderate equities for the coming year. I disregard allocation and think bonds will diminish our real return.
too bad we don't have our contest anymore where we each pick our personal 5 best and see who wins the crown after a year. philpill
We can't control the direction of the wind, but we can adjust our sails..helms alee o!
Comments
"Yes" to the first. "No" to the latter. (I'll accept there's much bullishness, but am not adding to equity or other risk-on assets)
What to do? Bond funds started to be nibbled away day after day by market mice; where else to put the money beside equity?
We're now at cash/43%, bonds/22% and equity/35%. This is both the lowest for bond funds and the highest for equity funds that we have been at for several years now. Wasn't trying to "time" the market, but got lucky on recent advance. Equity "values" approaching 2007 again... now THAT's a definite worry. But again, where oh where to put spare cash? Not planning to increase anything beyond where we are now. We shall see...
Sell "all" bond funds. Be conservative with an equity portfolio, but no equity market weakness support from any bond funds?
Just curious.
Regards,
Catch
One thing I am watching quite closely is the price action in MLP's in general and the oil & gas MLP's in particular. I see that iPath has applied to open a MLP ETN and a number of equity/dividend funds have added them to their holdings. I'm always cautious when new(?) themes seem to be the rage and I'm not sure if these equities are held in weak or strong hands. I will say that I am sitting on some deployable cash should this little group take a hit for whatever reason save a change in fundamentals.
Additionally, I thought it was of interest that Obama's once potential (she's since withdrawn) Secretary of State had a very substantial amount (about a third) of her investments in Canadian oil and pipeline stocks like Transcanada and Enbridge. Not an attempt to be political, but a note that someone quite politically connected seemed rather confident in the general sector.
http://www.onearth.org/article/susan-rice-obama-secretary-state-tar-sands-finances
catch, first I admire your portfolio and literary comments about choices you detail. your results are consistent while engendering little angst and you surely sleep better than Philpill.
still, the market is a study between perception and reality and this always is a constantly changing variable. what works last year may not this year and so I have dumped all PIMCO funds that shone with leveraged income because my perception is that interest rates will not fall and with an inflationary minded chief executive paper will devalue and interest rates must rise.
my barometric indicator TBT rose 9.5 % in only one month while TLT declined 5%. this is a very ominous precursor for future bond returns.
Catch, I may be wrong, I usually am, but I would suggest conservative and moderate equities for the coming year.
I disregard allocation and think bonds will diminish our real return.
too bad we don't have our contest anymore where we each pick our personal 5 best and see who wins the crown after a year.
philpill
We can't control the direction of the wind, but we can adjust our sails..helms alee o!