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VMNVX Prospects

STB65
in Fund Discussions
With retirement, I had planned to let this fund manage my money for the next 20 to 35 years. I'm concerned that a new single manager has been assigned. While I trust my judgment for a few years, I know it will decline.
What's up here? Vanguard rarely relies on a single manager. The fund had some mediocre years, but it was still a M* 4* fund on M*.
GMO says foreign and/or international funds have the best 7 yr prospects, but the January rally may have changed that assessment.
While I would like to follow GMO's recommendations, I don't have the resources to engage their services.
Suggestions appreciated.

Comments

  • Old_Skeet
    edited March 2019
    Hi @STB65: For starters, I'd never put all my investment dollars in a single fund. With this in mind (and if it were me) I'd be looking around for at least eleven more funds to pair with this one. Think twelve because there are twelve months in a year and this fund only makes disbursements once per year in December. Think something along the lines of how oftern you'd like to get paid and then go form there. Having a single fund ... What would you do should it falter and not meet your expectations? Where is your back up? Something to think on. Skeet

  • MikeMMikeM
    Nothing wrong with a single fund if it has a diversified portfolio, like a Retirement fund. This one does not. Not even close. I don't think GMO ever suggested a portfolio of 1/2 international and 1/2 domestic and nothing else.

    @STB65, have you used Portfolio Visualizer? If not, try it. Build a portfolio of 5-10-50 funds and another portfolio with one fund, a TRP retirement fund. Let that guide you.
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    edited March 2019
    600+ stocks and it's not diversified? Huh? One needs more proportion of small and micro? It's too much a midcap?

    Lowish turnover, Vanguard family (meaning closer oversight of the single manager, I would suggest), MFOP UI around 2 or a bit above depending on timeframe, what's not to like?

    My personal problem would be the half in foreign, as I'm of the belief that foreign demonstrably does not add much value or indeed diversification, to the contrary.
    I also would want somewhat more LC, as I have in my own retirement. But that's me.

    If I were you and tending to follow the GMO thoughts, I would buy it and forget it.
  • MikeMMikeM
    @davidrmoran, do you think a fund that holds 98% stocks is a diversified portfolio? In retirement no less!!!
  • rforno
    edited March 2019
    FWIW saying when I hit retirement I still expect to still be practically all-in on equities as I am now in my mid-40s. While I won't be 'diversified' across so-called "asset classes" I will be 'diversified' by my own comfort levels, sectors, and due diligences. (And no, I don't care about LC/MC/SC G/B/V designations - I buy/own what I feel comfortable owning, not according to any M* or Street recommendation)

    But that's ME. Each to their own ... there's no right or wrong here.
    MikeM said:

    @davidrmoran, do you think a fund that holds 98% stocks is a diversified portfolio? In retirement no less!!!

  • Old_Skeet
    edited March 2019
    If an investor only owns one fund (VMNVX) how does this diverisify fund manager and strategy risk even though the fund itself might be highly diverisfied globally within its equity holdings? Where's the bonds, etc?

    My thinking is that while it might be a fine global equity fund it is not a fund to hold just by itself as a stand alone complete investment. Morningstar list it as a world small/mid stock fund.
  • MikeMMikeM
    Ahhh, mid 40's. I was there once.
    ...when I hit retirement I still expect to still be practically all-in on equities as I am now in my mid-40s. While I won't be 'diversified' across so-called "asset classes" I will be 'diversified' by my own comfort levels,
    @rforno , I wouldn't recommend that in retirement without a cash bucket (another asset class), unless you don't need to withdraw from your savings. Withdrawing from a full-in equity portfolio during a bear market could be detrimental to your savings, especially if that bear market is at the start of retirement. So if you had that cash bucket, 1, 3, 5 years, whatever your comfort level is, I think 100% equity for the remaining portfolio is perfectly fine for a risk taker like yourself. Probably do better than most.
    And no, I don't care about LC/MC/SC G/B/V designations
    I don't disagree with you on this at all, but you know these are not asset classes.

  • shipwreckedandalone
    In choosing one fund you may be getting broad diversification in portfolio equity holdings, but you are getting only one of these: management philosophy, prospectus objective, asset allocation, cap gains liability, hedging strategy or not, fund family culture, risk tolerance, volatility, business cycle "out of favor" risk ,income producing capability, long term track record (or not w new concept), sharpe ratio capabilities, beta, Max Drawdown historical tendancies. Each fund is different like each child is different. My 2c......I like the Vanguard fund Family alternatives, but I like some fund diversification more.
  • MikeW
    @MikeM ... do you have a link to portfolio visualizer? Id like to try it out. Thx
  • MikeMMikeM
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

    Register so that you can personalize.
  • MikeW
    @MikeM thanks very much.
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