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M: Time To Buy Emerging Markets

FYI: Worries about trade wars and decelerating global growth in 2018 left their imprint on developing economies and the funds that invest in them. Between Jan. 29 and Oct. 29, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost a fourth of its value, peak to trough. Popular Chinese stocks like Tencent and Alibaba (BABA) helped lead the race to bottom. While the months of November and December brought somewhat of a reprieve, the typical diversified emerging-markets Morningstar Category fund shed 16.1% in 2018. Investors who had the temerity to increase their exposure to emerging markets during the last bear market ended on Jan. 21, 2016, reaped a handsome reward as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index almost doubled prior to its 2018 downturn. Here are a few ideas for betting on another rebound.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/913835/time-to-buy-emerging-markets.html

Comments

  • edited February 2019
    My two emerging market funds are NEWFX and DWGAX. Combined, they account for a little better than 5% of the equity area of my portfolio. Plus, I have some other funds that provide emerging market exposure which amounts to a couple of percent. With this ... I'm thinking ... I'm already positioned at somewhere around 7% (or better) in emerging markets within my equity allocation. Overall, this puts me at about the 3% to 4% range in emerging markets. Remember, at 70+ years in age, I'm in the distribution phase of investing so my emerging market exposure might be a little light for some.

    I'm wondering what others might think is a reasonable percent of their portfolio that should be held in emerging markets? Any thoughts?

    I have linked below a Forbe's article on the subject. It is titled "Should Long Term Investors Own More Emerging Market Equities?"

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2018/08/01/should-long-term-investors-own-more-emerging-market-equities/#31769cfc54ee
  • If you like volatility then EM is for you. FWIW
    Derf
    P.S. Thanks O_S for the link.
  • Old_Skeet said:

    My two emerging market funds are NEWFX and DWGAX. Combined, they account for a little better than 5% of the equity area of my portfolio. Plus, I have some other funds that provide emerging market exposure which amounts to a couple of percent. With this ... I'm thinking ... I'm already positioned at somewhere around 7% (or better) in emerging markets within my equity allocation. Overall, this puts me at about the 3% to 4% range in emerging markets. Remember, at 70+ years in age, I'm in the distribution phase of investing so my emerging market exposure might be a little light for some.

    I'm wondering what others might think is a reasonable percent of their portfolio that should be held in emerging markets? Any thoughts?

    I have linked below a Forbe's article on the subject. It is titled "Should Long Term Investors Own More Emerging Market Equities?"

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2018/08/01/should-long-term-investors-own-more-emerging-market-equities/#31769cfc54ee

    % all depends on where you're at in your life. Early savers could be upwards of 10%+ of equities.

    What's so great about NEWFX and DWGAX? I don't get everybody's infatuation with American Funds......
  • emerging markets have been tough on the downside for the past couple of years. NEWFX takes a fairly conservative approach in that they invest in companies from developed markets that do alot of business in EM countries as well as purchasing EM securities. I personally like PRIJX which takes a value approach to EM and has performed comparatively well since its launch just over 3 years ago. Thanks to @BenWP for suggesting PRIJX.
  • JoJo - the last time the board looked at OS's portfolio there was upwards of 60+ funds within. It's almost a given that there will be an American Family fund in there and likely more than one.

    Now, do you have any suggestions for other EM funds or are you just calling out the American ones?

    I don't because I haven't explored the category in some time and I'm not likely to any time soon.
  • GPEOX - Need an iron clad stomach, however, given the small cap nature of the product. I still like the guys at Grandeur, but am watching this more closely now as they just seem to have a whole lot going on.

    American Funds is an asset gatherer. I'd never invest with them.
  • edited February 2019
    Umm ... Lot to chew on. My only EM is a 5-6% hold on an EM bond fund - a dollar hedged one at that (which curbs some risk). It should amp-up my fixed income return a bit over time. But I suppose a good junk bond fund might add some similar bang to one’s fixed income. How much bang do you want or need in fixed?

    Like JoJo said, EMs are very volatile - more so on the equity side. So my first question is Who needs the pain?. International / global equity funds can and do hold EM and can be pretty volatile themselves. So why ramp it up further if you don’t need to? Many international funds fell 50% from late ‘07 until early ‘09. I don’t even want to look how EM fared. But couldn’t have been any better.

    My second question is which “emerging market”? They‘re literally all over the planet. Do you mean The Middle East - a region where you can walk into an Embassy and be carried out in a suitcase? Brazil - where the new guy is lowering the hammer on the gay transgender community and otherwise usurping individual freedoms? Africa? China? North or South Korea? Russia?

    So it seems to me an intelligent conversation about whether or not to own EM might begin with what part of the world and why. Often some areas prosper while others falter. Back in my early investing days EM was pretty synonymous with raw materials / natural resources, So there was often an indirect play there. That’s still the case with some, like Venezuela, but it’s becoming more the exception today as manufacturing has taken hold in many EM regions that may lack natural resources. I do like international stock and bond funds because they provides a counterweight to the U.S. dollar should it falter. But I’m not so sure you have to play in EM to gain that advantage.
  • Thanks guys for your comments. I enjoyed reading your perspectives on emerging markets. For me, I consider them an asset class thus I hold a small representation in them. And ... sometimes it is just good to read others thinking. Thanks again for your comments. Skeet
  • @MikeW: credit goes to David Snowball for highlighting the strength of PRIWX. As I’ve said before, getting paid for the risks one takes for going into EM should be the standard to apply. I agree with @hank that EM is a loose term. Now that there’s an ETF for EM internet stocks, the asset class is no longer made up of old oil companies, miners, and a Korean chaebol or two. Buying when there’s blood in the streets might work, but I don’t know of a reliable sell signal.
  • Good point @BenWP. Did you see my message to you? Not sure if it went thru. Thx
  • edited February 2019
    X-Ray at M* tells me I'm down to 3.55% of portf. in EM, worldwide. In retirement-mode, I don't need the extra volatility. A while ago, I thought about PRIJX but never pulled the trigger. Just as well. Today, I see it's up, YTD by 8.37..... My PRWCX is up by 8.86. I know the EM can run hot and cold, in streaks. The whole portf. is now just 34% in equities. PRWCX is my biggest chunk, at 32% of portf. And 5% cash, 2% "other."

    PRIDX gives me almost all of my international & EM exposure.
    X-Ray says:
    full portf. carries Asia EM 2.47 of total.

    ...And what about "Australasia?" Is that Oz plus NZ plus out of the way places like The Maldives and the Solomons and the Marshall Islands, or what? (0.62% there.)

    Africa/M.E =0.19%
    Europe EM = 0.
    LatAm =0.89%.

    Ethical filters as well as portf. protection will keep me much more Stateside, from now on, though I still want just one finger in the EM pie.

    ...Although, judging from the ones in the seats of power these days, "ethics" is a thing they are unaware of. But what are ya gonna do. Untrammeled capitalism is the only game in town. Until Leadership grows or re-grows a conscience. ("Can you say, 'con-science,' boys and girls? I KNEW you COULD," said Mr. Rogers, in his trademark creepy voice, from the grave.)

    BONDS are in PTIAX and the lion's share is in PRSNX. ALL bonds in portf. these days = 59% of total.
  • Last year after attending a web cast by Kevin Carter on EMQQ I added his fund,
    Emerging Markets Intrnt & Ecmrc ETF EMQQ.
  • While not strictly emerging markets I would consider MAPIX.
  • just came across this; trying to figure out how long it might take to pay off (decades) ...

    Africa has a population of 1.2 billion, with median age 18.
    Europe has pop of 740 million, with median age 42.
    Where would you invest?
  • edited May 2019
    In doing a recent Instant Xray analysis of my portfolio I am currently holding, within my equity allocation, a little better than five percent in emerging markets. The two emerging market funds that I hold are NEWFX and DWGAX plus some global asset allocation funds along with some other funds that have some emerging market exposure. I'm thinking, for me now being in retirement, a seven percent position in emerging markets would be all that I'd want due to their volatility and performance over the past five year period. In doing a five year look back, NEWFX has gained an average of 3.2% per year while DWGAX has lost an average of -0.8% per year. However, for the past three year period they have both performed with average annual returns of 10.4% and 6.50% respectively. With this, they both have been underperforming funds when compaired to other funds held within the growth area my portfolio. It will be interesting to see what the next five year period brings. For me, they are both considered a contrarian investment play.

    From Xray, within equities, I'm currently 1.27% Latin America, 0.42% Europe Emerging, 0.49% Africa/Middle East, and 3.18% Asia Emerging which brings my emerging market exposure to 5.36%. With this, I've got room for some more emerging market exposure before reaching my seven percent threshold. I'm also considering adding to my commodity strategy fund as many emerging market economies are also major commodity producers.
  • Africa has a population of 1.2 billion, with median age 18.
    Europe has pop of 740 million, with median age 42.
    Where would you invest?
    My choice would be European Senior Living, Pharmaceuticals and Health Care.
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