Howdy folks,
I readily admit I saw the sell sign back a month or so -and did not act - like a stupid rono - alas and alack.
Now however, I'm fading this rat, at any and all opportunities. I lightened up after the Ides of November but have since just plodded along on Cruise Control in your basic 70 yo conservative crazy positioning. Not any more. Too much crazy and too much corned rat. The odds of a Black Donald event are getting too serious to ignore. While I'm moving some to 'cash', I also added to Asia TRAOX, emerging Europe TREMX and Latin America PRLAX.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Comments
Not initiating any new positions or even adding on to those I hold unless they get spanked really hard.
I've almost always been close to 100% invested but find myself currently with 10-15% cash.
Forgot to say, Stay Warm and Merry Christmas you.
I'm thinking big money is selling to reduce their leverage plus raise their cash levels. When the little investor can stand no more of this downdraft and starts selling then big money will step in and start buying. In looking at recent charting of SPY it seems, to me, that the flash crowd has been playing the swing.
Against my better instincts, I’m pretty much sitting on my already conservative position. But not buying the dip as might have years back. Hurts a bit each day - but not too badly. Fleck likes gold (especially the miners). Can’t bring myself to go whole-hog. Did add a bit to a mining fund & across-the-board to my “real assets” (infrastructure, real estate, energy, etc.) last week. Also a bit more into international and EM bonds. That stuff held up better than equities at week’s end as rates fell and the dollar weakened.
(To avoid pIssing Ted off, suggest we refer to the Prez simply as “Individual #1” from now on.)
I've been sitting this one out for a long time. Even sold my floating rate funds a few weeks ago. CASH is king.
I think you are fearless in adding to other high-risk areas (Asia, Latam). I don't know that I could stomach that while we fret a possible slowdown. Sometimes such counter-intuitive moves can really pay-off, though.
"When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold". Not sure if it still holds true today, but this was always the golden rule I stand by.
Happy hunting,
Joe
I have no problem nibbling on stuff I'd like to own for the long-term that hit my price targets, but I am not going hog-wild with buys, tempting as it might be. I simply position-size based on volatility and DCA into positions as appropriate.
The past month or so have provided a decent stress-test for funds I have been holding for defensive purposes. Two have really disappointed: OAKBX and TMSRX. I’m willing to cut TMSRX some slack because it hasn’t been around long enough to get a good read. I dropped its target allocation from 10% to 5% last week. But OAKBX should have shined (relative to other balanced funds) during the past month or so. But instead it stunk. GM is its largest hold. Curious how much that had to do with it. I’ve decided to exit completely by year’s end and spread the proceeds among my three other balanced funds.
There are times, eh?; when the markets I think I see remind me of Star Trek, with words between Kirk and Scotty.
When Kirk asks that Scotty divert more power to the ship's shields. Scotty responds with, “I'm givin' her all she's got, Captain!” The inference sometimes to the fact that, she's gonna blow; being the entire core source of the ship's power.
So, in one form of view; we have the core source of markets power being the trend(s), for whatever reasons, eh? And the shield(s) is the protection we seek to protect the profits we've made, yes?
---January, 2018 found a broad U.S. equity +9% until the end of the month (one helluva jump for 1 month) and a bang down in Feb. This equity area recovered to about a +16% in September, with fits and starts through the spring/summer. Then began the bang, bang down again.
I attempt to watch bond actions with equity moves. Hmmmm, in Feb. equity down; no real run to safety of treasury stuff; BUT corporation bonds pricing suffered and never recovered, and down again in September. Finally, with the beginning equity sells again in Sept. and continuing now, treasury issues have gained some steam.
A few weeks ago we sold our last broad U.S. and int'l. equity. We'd held these for some time and have done well with these; but not willing to give away more profits.
Our remaining equity is tech. and health, generally U.S. oriented; both of which remain positive for the year.
We are now at 30% equity and 70% money market at about a 2% yield.
I/we will face a lazy place to go, with investments, in the too soon future.
Those good at and willing to play the moves between equity and some bond types of etf's stand to profit accordingly during this turbulent period.
I'll be brave to offer this obscure video with Christoper Walken/Fat Boy Slim song to represent a view of the past 10 or so years. There are many song lyrics and videos that one's imagination may weave into investment themes.
1. the beginning sequence....the awakening or reawakening of the investor after the market melt....."giv'in her all she's got"
2. the middle sequence.....as the lyric states, "you can go with this, you can go with that" as Walken flits about with his investment choices and thoughts
3. the end sequence.....end lyric, " between the gutters and the stars"; shields up, to protect the hopeful profits and rest again
Take care of you and yours,
Catch
NOTE: two click the play button
if I buy anything may add QQQ or IVV
Thanks to all for your comments. You folks are the best and have been for years now.
A couple of clarifications:
70 yo, both wifey and I working part time to keep from going crazy and each other
My strategic moves are 'on the margin'. That's what this thread is all about - 'strategic' moves (i.e. Are you modifying your asset allocation because of geopolitical/socioeconomic events and in what way?)
For sh*ts and giggles, I play the junior silver miners and pot. I also like to go to a casino and play blackjack. They're pretty much the same.
Oh and BTW, I live in Michigan. As they used to say in boot camp, "The smoking lamp is lit. If you've got 'em, burn 'em."
teehehe
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Yours and every individual’s situation is unique. Taxes are an important consideration. I suspect most of the over-70 lot here, like myself, are invested heavily in tax-sheltered accounts. Pulling out completely could incur a big tax hit. But if (as I suspect) in “cashing-out” these folks have simply moved into money market type instruments under the same tax shelter, than no tax would be incurred until they actually withdrew the money at a later date. And, investments inside a Roth are generally exempt from taxes even at distribution.
On the other point -‘08 wasn’t your typical market crash. Downturns in the area of 40+% rarely recover as quickly. One could make the argument that by lowering rates to “0” in many countries (and buying massive amounts of bonds) central bankers effectively used up all their “bullets”. Should another downturn of that magnitude occur now, there’s not another rabbit left in their hat they could easily pull-out. I suppose they could turn on the printing presses 24 / 7 - but only after politicians awoke to the depth of the crisis.
‘08 was a “godsend” to some. I did a major Roth conversion near the early ‘09 lows and have been amply rewarded. On the other hand, some were wiped out and left the markets never to return.
All of our investment transactions, distributions, etc. related are inside of tax sheltered accounts.
Obviously, this status; versus taxable investment accounts may have a serious impact upon one's overall portfolio and tax liability.
Ted
Bank Of Baroda 2.25%: 2/12/19
Sallie Mae Bank 2.45% 6/5/19
Franklin Synergy Bank 2.50% 8/17/19
Bank Of Baroda 2.75% 12/12/19
Derf
Regards,
Ted