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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Does it make sense to short us stocks

https://www.investopedia.com/news/does-it-make-sense-short-us-stocks/?utm_source=chart-advisor&utm_campaign=bouncex&utm_term=14414525&utm_content=09/10/2018&utm_medium=email

For us, the big question going into the weekend was whether or not the most recent leg higher in U.S. stocks is the beginning of something bigger, a breakout of epic proportions, or just a major whipsaw that will lead to further selling into September and October, two of the most historically volatile months of the year.

Comments

  • TedTed
    edited September 2018
    @MFO Members: You can short ETFs, but not Open-End Mutual Funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Open end funds can in theory be shorted. I'm not going to do a search now, but in the past there were a few that were actually set up for shorting (I mean shorting shares of the fund, not that the fund shorted securities).

    Whether there are currently any OEFs that can be shorted, I don't know. It's not something I've checked on in several years.
  • @msf: When you one, and you won't, let me know the name of it !
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Sigh. "The Fidelity Select Portfolios that are available for short selling include American Gold, Biotechnology, Precious Metals and Minerals and Food and Agriculture."

    https://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/17/business/mutual-funds-the-risky-business-of-selling-short.html
  • @msf: This is back in 1992 when Fidelity Select Funds traded every hour. Since then The Food and Agriculture is now the Consumers Staples Fund, and American Gold was long ago liquidated. Today their Select Funds operate just like any other open-end fund, trading once a day.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • "Today their Select Funds operate just like any other open-end fund, trading once a day.any other open-end fund, trading once a day."

    Some funds still trade more than once a day.
  • FWIW saying, just saw this tweet that relates to the viability of shorting US stocks:

    @IncomeDisparity
    World Markets:
    Japan - Below 50 and 200 DMA
    China - Below 50 and 200 DMA (multi-year lows)
    Germany - Below 50 and 200 DMA
    France - Below 50 and 200 DMA
    UK - Below 50 and 200 DMA
    US - All Time Highs
  • My points were conceptual: that open end funds can be shorted, regardless of whether any currently do so. Also, that open end funds are not barred from being traded more than once a day.

    Statements that OEFs cannot do X are often mistaken. In this context, the only function that identifying such funds serves is as an existence proof. What does it matter which funds if any do either of these today? Are you planning on shorting OEFs? Are you planning to day trade OEFs?

    Maybe you don't believe me. I'm so hurt:-)

    Ted identified Fidelity Select funds as ones that traded more than once daily in the past. I just wrote that there are still some OEF funds that, like the Select funds of yore, do so. Not that the Select funds still do; they don't. At least the last time I looked some Rydex funds traded twice daily. You can go and figure out which.
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20070122/REG/70118012/rydex-expands-availability-of-twice-a-day-pricing

    Here's another "strange but true" on OEFs: Paying shareholders to invest in funds (i.e. negative ERs) is not new, it's been done before. So read carefully any statement that says: for the first time, introducing a fund that costs less than zero to invest.

    If it doesn't say "always" costs less than zero, it's not something new. In the past, a negative ER for a fund was only temporary. At least AFAIK.
  • edited September 2018
    @msf, I was responding only to

    >> Some funds still trade more than once a day

    which seemed to have to do w Fido, and I found a statement that that was not so, but politely hedged my demurral, which one always has to do with you.

    >> Maybe you don't believe me. I'm so hurt:-)

    I can't tell how this is intended. Actually, I almost always believe you, as I bet others do here, which is often a problem with someone who is so thorough and usually accurate but also sometimes has real problems dealing with being incorrect (this quite aside from the joy in both hairsplitting and last-worditis).

    >> Not that the Select funds still do; they don't.

    violent agreement here, again, and all I was proposing in the opaque context of your response. And yes, you have again made it quite clear that my take was another misreading of you.
  • edited September 2018
    You will perma-bears like Marc Faber and other saying the same thing going back at least ten years ... so listen w/a grain of salt. They'll be proven right EVENTUALLY ... but being early and right is still being wrong for economists and market pundits. But anyone who offers a market-timing timeframe for their prognostications is, generally, imho, to be ignored. Nobody has a crystal ball.
    hank said:
  • It might if you're feeling lucky. Are you?

  • >> Maybe you don't believe me. I'm so hurt:-)

    I can't tell how this is intended. .

    It seems emojis have lost their meaning. How about:

    image

    Since we do seem to be having problems communicating, I suppose I should add that the footnote above is not part of my message.

    If you've got a better icon to use, just let me know.

    I'm still curious though, what your objective was in searching for an intra-day trading fund in the first place. Now that your target is in sight (you know where to look), you appear to have given up the quest, i.e. you haven't posted any funds you found. Maybe you were checking Select funds in particular because you were open to day trading those funds specifically? Just tossing out possibilities here, since I haven't a clue why one would care which funds day trade.

    If I were you, based what you found on the Fidelity site (a blanket statement that as far as Fidelity knows, OEFs trade only daily), I'd be digging even further. That's because it sounds like Fidelity won't let you trade these funds more than once a day even if they carry them.

    Obvious followup questions: does Fidelity carry these funds? What are its rules on trading them? If it does allow intra-day trading how do its time of day cutoffs compare with those specified by the funds (brokers sometimes set earlier cutoffs)? If Fidelity doesn't support intra-day OEF trading, are there other platforms that do (such as your Merrill Edge), or does one need to go directly to the distributor? How would that work?
  • MJG
    edited September 2018
    Hi Guys,

    It is a universal truth that we love winning and hate losing. But those emotions are very asymmetric. Many studies reach that same conclusion. In my rough summary of these studies, they almost all conclude that we hate losing about twice as much as we like winning. Again, very generally, expected payoffs have to be double possible losses to induce an investment if the odds are an even 50-50.

    "The stock market is not logical, it is psychological." That's a quote I extracted from an article that highlights and provides an approximate measure of our risk aversion. The article was written by David Fabian. Here is the Link to it:

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/1289491-why-shorting-stocks-is-the-worst-investment-strategy-ever?page=3

    His title fully tells the story: " ... Shorting Stocks is the Worst Investment Strategy Ever". That might just be a slight overstatement, but his position on the matter is never in doubt. A positive correlation between rewards and risks exist in just about every human endeavor.

    Seeking Alpha in the markets is risky business. That's a lesson that all MFOers understand. Some of us have learned that hard lesson the very hard way.

    Best Wishes
  • Not my cup of tea and I have a full time job.

    If I would have lost confidence on US market, I would let my cash position build up and look for buying opportunities down the road.
  • edited September 2018
    Sven said:

    If I would have lost confidence on US market, I would let my cash position build up and look for buying opportunities down the road.

    Which for a 75 year old, might mean in the hereafter. (Hear there’s still high demand for coal down there.):)
  • @msf

    >> I'm still curious though, what your objective was in searching for an intra-day trading fund in the first place. Now that your target is in sight (you know where to look), you appear to have given up the quest, i.e. you haven't posted any funds you found. Maybe you were checking Select funds in particular because you were open to day trading those funds specifically? Just tossing out possibilities here, since I haven't a clue why one would care which funds day trade.

    Is this to me? If so, I was posting only in response to my misreading of your

    \\\ "Today their Select Funds operate just like any other open-end fund, trading once a day.any other open-end fund, trading once a day."
    >> Some funds still trade more than once a day.

    since it took no time to find out actual Fido policy, more recent than 1992.

    I have zero interest or concerns in any of this myself, was just trying to clarify the facts of the thread.

    >> If I were you, based what you found on the Fidelity site (a blanket statement that as far as Fidelity knows, OEFs trade only daily), I'd be digging even further. That's because it sounds like Fidelity won't let you trade these funds more than once a day even if they carry them.

    okay.

    Some random closing emoji about 'conceptual points' and believing surely goes here.
    I liked the blunt shifting of the burden of (mis)communication off of you and fully onto me --- well-played. Foghorn for sure.
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