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ot - any thoughts about the elections & a couple of Sat reads
There'll be a money printer at the Fed either way, despite Romney's claims to the contrary. Neither is going to fix things, although I think there are still sectors and other investments that will potentially do well.
I'll continue to look at real assets, particularly in Canada, such as Freehold Royalities (FRHLF, which is run by a division of the pension co for the Canadian National Railway) and Enbridge Income Fund (EBGUF), both of which offer yields over 5%. After I sold Graincorp (which is in the process of being bought by Archer Daniels), I've gotten the Andersons (ANDE) and may look at Archer Daniels (which I still think is a possibility for being bought by Berkshire at some point.)
For me, it's largely a focus on real assets, some tech, telecom and maybe a consumer co (I'm looking at Reckitt Beckheiser and Danone, among others.) I also am slightly interested in the fairly conservative Retail Opportunity Investments Corp, which is a REIT focused on malls with necessity based anchors.
I've started a position in PQIDX and may look at PICEX (I don't like the fund company or expenses, but I like the manager for this subadvised fund.) I'd like to move here-and-there into EM (maybe FEO?) across the next several months.
I find it interesting that investors seem to think Romney will be good for the stock market but Obama bad. I don't really understand this strongly held belief despite the fact that history would point the other direction. History only shows that Bonds do better under Republicans. I actually just wrote about this here yesterday. However, I don't personally position my portfolio one way or another based on the president because I think both democrats and republicans actually follow the same agenda.
Any good SHRINKS around here? - Sandy has really injected a wild card. Won't get into which candidate's best for the economy, stock market, bonds, etc. But wondering how events will affect the outcome? Presidential race is currently seen as very close - so even small shifts in voter turnout or preference could make a big difference in the outcome. (Sorry if too OT)
- Re growing gas lines, food shortages, cold damp houses without electricity for days. Will voters express support and appreciation for Washington's efforts to make a bad situation better? Or will anger and frustration be channelled into support for the challenger?
- Re voter turnout: How will turnout affect the outcome in key states and which groups are likely to vote or stay home? (Many of course have already voted).
- Re public perceptions at large. Will a sitting President's show of support and hands-on involvement prove a greater "plus" than the "negatives" from detractors who will argue the nation should have been better prepared or that not enough is being done? Also, consider both candidates have had to scale-back campaigning in recent days.
Hi Hank- not to disagree in any way with your commentary, because I agree with you. There undoubtedly will be significant numbers of people who will somehow believe that the "government" should somehow "have been better prepared". In more than a few cases these will be the same people who also believe that their taxes are already too high, that we have too much government, or that the government is simply taking care of the wrong people, ie: not them.
Having spent a significant portion of my life in both the Coast Guard and Public Safety, I can attest to the fact that upon occasion, and varying according to locality, the government can sometimes be inadequately or poorly prepared. (The two are not necessarily the same: inadequate = the right stuff, but maybe not enough of it, and poorly = well, poorly.) However, there are certain times when the forces of nature will simply overwhelm mankind, regardless of the level of preparedness. To believe that government, utilities, or communications providers could ever be equipped to offset a disaster of this magnitude is simply ignorance. The required level of investment in redundant facilities, equipment and manpower is not only prohibitive, but insane.
What we have here, actually, is either ignorance or willful dismissal of some very obvious factual data. Regardless of whether mankind is a contributing factor or not, and the well-financed anti-science propaganda of the Heartland Institute notwithstanding, the ice IS melting, the oceans WILL rise, and the weather IS changing to the extent that human existence WILL be affected.
I'm not particularly hopeful that any rational well-organized reaction or preventative response will be forthcoming any time soon, either from the citizens of this country or from the governments which they elect.
I hope obama can 'slow the rise of the ocean' if he is re-elected...lol. It sounds like the GOP are heavily out number democrats and they are more 'enthused' compared to 2008. But Dems can get people voting again since we don't really need an ID to vote anyways, just show up at voting booth. It probably come down to whom ever can 'move' ohio + wisconsin. who every has the most money/raise the most $$ probably will win.
Voter's in a bad mood generally do not favor those already in power. But, who really knows. Past all of this is what I have tagged as the McD's affect. During past decades, I noticed that the more a customer had grown up with fast food restaurant service (being the, younger than I group); the more inclined many of them seemed to be with a "want it done here and now". This view is related to customer service and fixing stuff for customers on-site. Those in my age group and not having grown up surrounded by fast food outlets were much more inclined to be more understanding and patient with time schedules to repair whatever. The younger ones in many cases were less inclined to be patient, even though they had not a clue as to what some types of customer service involved; and especially involving an area that they had zero knowledge about. I believe much of this attitude is in place today; and affects the decisions of those 10-20 years and more younger than myself. I would suspect this could also translate into what did my government do for me today and how come it took so long. Another argument for all 18 year olds having mandatory military duty for at least 2 years.....to help them get their s..t together, so to speak and become a better, more mannerly and well rounded individual. Oh, well; that is just another utopian thought. Ya'll take care, Catch
Reply to @Old_Joe: That's quite an image there OJ. A recent question posed by a CNN talking head to a N.Y. official: "Had you gone to the citizens of N.Y. and asked for a tax increase to upgrade the subways to make them less vulnerable in the event of a storm of this magnitude, do you think these citizens would have supported the increased tax?" I can't recall the equivocating responses the question evoked, but in this instance, the question kinda says it all. A different take than yours, but I think we both agree with Pogo!
Thanks Catch. Too bad there isn't an IPad App for this situation. And your first comment is true. After sloshing around in mud for a week, I'm afraid I'd be severely challenged to vote for any incumbent. (-:
Well, since older people don't seem to be or to want to be good stakeholders in tomorrow, I support turning the world over to these youngsters; the sooner the better. I've met many of them coming into the workplace as I was getting on to retirement. I'd place them in charge of any project that takes enthusiasm, dedication, and yes, patience. Why? Because the only fault I can find with them is that they sometimes expedite the work a little too fast and miss a few things until they compare notes. Nevertheless, they DO tend to finish tasks even when the tasks take a long time. (I think of an App as a small project or a unit of a larger project.)
Anyway, just my opinion. My young colleagues were scientists and engineers and the smartest dang crew I have encountered. Their confidence and willingness to learn was superb.
Hi Anna- for the most part, that's been my experience also. I think that your description is pretty accurate. With respect to impatience and lack of understanding of reality (current version, that is), I'd have to vote for the AARP crew. Unfortunately, that's us.
Whelp, I can't think why I'd change my portfolio based upon the winner. Hell, I really don't see much difference between Obama and Bush Jr., so put me in the camp of 'both parties are about the same'.
The fiscal cliff is an event, and we'll probably go over it. However, once we do go over it, it will force them to do something about it. And in all honesty, going over it is probably the best longer run solution they could come up with. Jerks.
I'll be curious about the various ballot issues and some of the senate races. Right now, it looks like Obama will win and the dems will keep the senate and the repubs will keep the house. deja vu . . deja vu.
The issue is not undecided voters. They're a myth created by the newsmedia to keep interest up on the news programs. Feh. There hasnt' been an undecided voter in months. Any that say they are, won't vote anyway. Cretins. What will decide this rascal is who can get their voters out to the polls. Sandy will hurt the dems in the east, but none of those states are really in play. Overall, Sandy has been Obamas sweetheart.
BTW, wish me luck. I'm running for Township Trustee here in Michigan. Been on the Planning Commission for 20 years, so they know me - warts and all. It's a repubican township so indeed, the kid is running as a republican. However, I'm a real republican, not like those clowns at party central. Fiscal conservative - balance the books and pay your bills. Socially tolerant like a good civil libertarian and what I learned in bible school. If no one gets hurt and I don't have to watch, I really don't care what you do. Lastly, I'm a tree hugger like Teddy R. And my chances are very good. Out of 6 running for 4 slots in the primary, I finished 2nd.
Thanks. Yea, the governing body at the township level is the Board of Trustees consisting of supervisor, clerk, treasurer and 4 trustees, in our case, elected at large. We're very small and don't really have any problems, but that's my spiel - broken in Lansing and broken in Washington, but works in Watertown - balanced budget, we mostly get along, great master plan and ordinances and flowers in the bridges. It gives me hope and is something worth working for.
Reply to @rono: Hey good luck. You sound like a kindred spirit to the kind of Republican I used to vote for in my youth, when more "real republicans" still existed. Our old Brahmin Republicans were snooty, but they could do arithmetic. Not really my people as such, but I find that I miss them.
Reply to @johnN: I don't own it, but LNCO (LinnCo) is an interesting oil play, as an alternate (in other words, way that does not generate a K-1 at tax time) way to invest in MLP Linn Energy.
Reply to @scott: Hey scott, I have a small position in evep - energy partner evep, pretty good yields also. Whom do you think will win election? i think it could be a toss up. Vegas have obama favored > 2:1, probably good bet I think
Reply to @johnN: I own KMR (Kinder Morgan Management), which is an alternate (no K-1) way to invest in Kinder Morgan Partners. Energy Partners is also a good choice in the MLP category, as well.
I think Obama will likely win the election, although it will be close and may not be settled for a few days. I'm not changing investments due to who wins or loses.
The other oil-related plays that I'm looking at are Canadian: Freehold (FRHLF, yield 8.3%) and Enbridge Income (EBGUF, yield 5ish%) In terms of agriculture in Canada, I'm also looking at Ag Growth International (AGGZF), which yields around 7% last I looked.
Both of the Canadian plays offer a monthly dividend, although I'll warn that the energy plays discussed are potentially volatile and not for conservative investors near retirement.
Those of us in Ohio are just anticipating the END of the campaign. Lordy, it's been hideous. Non-stop TV ads bashing opposing candidates, mailboxes stuffed with campaign crap, and clients who tell me their land phone lines never stop ringing. Fortunately we got rid of our own land line last year. Just an observation in my drive to and from work area of central Ohio...there are way fewer Obama signs in yards that four years ago, and there are tons more Romney signs than there were McCain signgs four years ago. This would seem to indicate that the President's supporters are much less enthusiastic (or he truly has fewer supporters), and that Republicans are much more enthusiastic than they were the last election. Whether this translates to any actual numbers...who knows. Our U.S. senate election has been about the nastiest campaign I have ever seen. Both candidates have spent the last three months in the gutter, rolling in the mud. Truly disgusting behavior by both camps.
I thought the essay that suggested a tie electoral college vote would mean a Romney/Biden result was hilarious. Truth is that whomever wins, there is a mess to clean up, starting with the so-called fiscal cliff. Why anyone would want to take on all of this is beyond me. These folks obviously have enormous egos.
The kid one one of 4 seats as a Township Trustee. Very small twsp and mostly agriculture (6K and 85%, resp.). I've been on the planning commission for 20 years, so it's not a great stretch.
Reply to @rono: congrats.... hope you'll do well for Michigan ...[and hope you won't destroy the country or stock market like what's going on today LOL] regards
Hi rono, Congratulations to you. Watertown will remain a better place to live with your efforts added. Hey, not really part of this thread; but what do you see on the ground as far as folks spending money for whatever.....Mountain Jacks and related places for eating out? Most of the restaurants in our area remain fairly busy. But, I don't know what else folks are spending money on; although the $ stores are usually busy all day long. Take care of yourselves, Mark
Things are picking up around here also and I'd noticed it prior to the election. Not sure when and where the bottom occurred, but it seems to be in for now. Bldg Permits are up and folks had been remodeling all along. Now they're actually starting to build new. That said, there's still a huge overhang of foreclosures that the banks are sitting on and that's a drag, but otherwise, it's looking quite a bit better. Last night we ate out and all of the brands were very busy. Oh, and they're paving a huge parking lot on an outdoor mall that's actually got some vacancies. That's where I've seen it - businesses actually doing some remodeling and makeovers - spending dollars.
Comments
I'll continue to look at real assets, particularly in Canada, such as Freehold Royalities (FRHLF, which is run by a division of the pension co for the Canadian National Railway) and Enbridge Income Fund (EBGUF), both of which offer yields over 5%. After I sold Graincorp (which is in the process of being bought by Archer Daniels), I've gotten the Andersons (ANDE) and may look at Archer Daniels (which I still think is a possibility for being bought by Berkshire at some point.)
For me, it's largely a focus on real assets, some tech, telecom and maybe a consumer co (I'm looking at Reckitt Beckheiser and Danone, among others.) I also am slightly interested in the fairly conservative Retail Opportunity Investments Corp, which is a REIT focused on malls with necessity based anchors.
I've started a position in PQIDX and may look at PICEX (I don't like the fund company or expenses, but I like the manager for this subadvised fund.) I'd like to move here-and-there into EM (maybe FEO?) across the next several months.
The Wall Street Ranter
- Re growing gas lines, food shortages, cold damp houses without electricity for days. Will voters express support and appreciation for Washington's efforts to make a bad situation better? Or will anger and frustration be channelled into support for the challenger?
- Re voter turnout: How will turnout affect the outcome in key states and which groups are likely to vote or stay home? (Many of course have already voted).
- Re public perceptions at large. Will a sitting President's show of support and hands-on involvement prove a greater "plus" than the "negatives" from detractors who will argue the nation should have been better prepared or that not enough is being done? Also, consider both candidates have had to scale-back campaigning in recent days.
Thanks for any thoughts and remember to VOTE!
Having spent a significant portion of my life in both the Coast Guard and Public Safety, I can attest to the fact that upon occasion, and varying according to locality, the government can sometimes be inadequately or poorly prepared. (The two are not necessarily the same: inadequate = the right stuff, but maybe not enough of it, and poorly = well, poorly.) However, there are certain times when the forces of nature will simply overwhelm mankind, regardless of the level of preparedness. To believe that government, utilities, or communications providers could ever be equipped to offset a disaster of this magnitude is simply ignorance. The required level of investment in redundant facilities, equipment and manpower is not only prohibitive, but insane.
What we have here, actually, is either ignorance or willful dismissal of some very obvious factual data. Regardless of whether mankind is a contributing factor or not, and the well-financed anti-science propaganda of the Heartland Institute notwithstanding, the ice IS melting, the oceans WILL rise, and the weather IS changing to the extent that human existence WILL be affected.
I'm not particularly hopeful that any rational well-organized reaction or preventative response will be forthcoming any time soon, either from the citizens of this country or from the governments which they elect.
http://usconservatives.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi=1/XJ&zTi=1&sdn=usconservatives&cdn=newsissues&tm=14&f=00&tt=2&bt=0&bts=0&zu=http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
Past all of this is what I have tagged as the McD's affect. During past decades, I noticed that the more a customer had grown up with fast food restaurant service (being the, younger than I group); the more inclined many of them seemed to be with a "want it done here and now".
This view is related to customer service and fixing stuff for customers on-site. Those in my age group and not having grown up surrounded by fast food outlets were much more inclined to be more understanding and patient with time schedules to repair whatever. The younger ones in many cases were less inclined to be patient, even though they had not a clue as to what some types of customer service involved; and especially involving an area that they had zero knowledge about.
I believe much of this attitude is in place today; and affects the decisions of those 10-20 years and more younger than myself. I would suspect this could also translate into what did my government do for me today and how come it took so long.
Another argument for all 18 year olds having mandatory military duty for at least 2 years.....to help them get their s..t together, so to speak and become a better, more mannerly and well rounded individual.
Oh, well; that is just another utopian thought.
Ya'll take care,
Catch
Anyway, just my opinion. My young colleagues were scientists and engineers and the smartest dang crew I have encountered. Their confidence and willingness to learn was superb.
Whelp, I can't think why I'd change my portfolio based upon the winner. Hell, I really don't see much difference between Obama and Bush Jr., so put me in the camp of 'both parties are about the same'.
The fiscal cliff is an event, and we'll probably go over it. However, once we do go over it, it will force them to do something about it. And in all honesty, going over it is probably the best longer run solution they could come up with. Jerks.
I'll be curious about the various ballot issues and some of the senate races. Right now, it looks like Obama will win and the dems will keep the senate and the repubs will keep the house. deja vu . . deja vu.
The issue is not undecided voters. They're a myth created by the newsmedia to keep interest up on the news programs. Feh. There hasnt' been an undecided voter in months. Any that say they are, won't vote anyway. Cretins. What will decide this rascal is who can get their voters out to the polls. Sandy will hurt the dems in the east, but none of those states are really in play. Overall, Sandy has been Obamas sweetheart.
BTW, wish me luck. I'm running for Township Trustee here in Michigan. Been on the Planning Commission for 20 years, so they know me - warts and all. It's a repubican township so indeed, the kid is running as a republican. However, I'm a real republican, not like those clowns at party central. Fiscal conservative - balance the books and pay your bills. Socially tolerant like a good civil libertarian and what I learned in bible school. If no one gets hurt and I don't have to watch, I really don't care what you do. Lastly, I'm a tree hugger like Teddy R. And my chances are very good. Out of 6 running for 4 slots in the primary, I finished 2nd.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Good luck, rono. Is a Township Trustee like a Councilman?
Thanks. Yea, the governing body at the township level is the Board of Trustees consisting of supervisor, clerk, treasurer and 4 trustees, in our case, elected at large. We're very small and don't really have any problems, but that's my spiel - broken in Lansing and broken in Washington, but works in Watertown - balanced budget, we mostly get along, great master plan and ordinances and flowers in the bridges. It gives me hope and is something worth working for.
peace,
rono
From Monday's WSJ "Obama and Romney Deadlocked"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-romney-deadlocked-polls-show-034300403.html
(No wonder market's acting sick
Yields over 7%
http://www.linnco.com/
http://www.linnenergy.com/operations/index.htm
Whom do you think will win election? i think it could be a toss up. Vegas have obama favored > 2:1, probably good bet I think
I think Obama will likely win the election, although it will be close and may not be settled for a few days. I'm not changing investments due to who wins or loses.
The other oil-related plays that I'm looking at are Canadian: Freehold (FRHLF, yield 8.3%) and Enbridge Income (EBGUF, yield 5ish%) In terms of agriculture in Canada, I'm also looking at Ag Growth International (AGGZF), which yields around 7% last I looked.
Both of the Canadian plays offer a monthly dividend, although I'll warn that the energy plays discussed are potentially volatile and not for conservative investors near retirement.
I thought the essay that suggested a tie electoral college vote would mean a Romney/Biden result was hilarious. Truth is that whomever wins, there is a mess to clean up, starting with the so-called fiscal cliff. Why anyone would want to take on all of this is beyond me. These folks obviously have enormous egos.
The kid one one of 4 seats as a Township Trustee. Very small twsp and mostly agriculture (6K and 85%, resp.). I've been on the planning commission for 20 years, so it's not a great stretch.
peace,
rono
Happy Trusteeship!
Voters in your township selected a rational man. Good for them.
Best of luck to you in your new civic task.
greg
regards
Congratulations to you. Watertown will remain a better place to live with your efforts added.
Hey, not really part of this thread; but what do you see on the ground as far as folks spending money for whatever.....Mountain Jacks and related places for eating out?
Most of the restaurants in our area remain fairly busy. But, I don't know what else folks are spending money on; although the $ stores are usually busy all day long.
Take care of yourselves,
Mark
Hi Mark,
Things are picking up around here also and I'd noticed it prior to the election. Not sure when and where the bottom occurred, but it seems to be in for now. Bldg Permits are up and folks had been remodeling all along. Now they're actually starting to build new. That said, there's still a huge overhang of foreclosures that the banks are sitting on and that's a drag, but otherwise, it's looking quite a bit better. Last night we ate out and all of the brands were very busy. Oh, and they're paving a huge parking lot on an outdoor mall that's actually got some vacancies. That's where I've seen it - businesses actually doing some remodeling and makeovers - spending dollars.
take care,
rono