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what are the odds that this is wrongheaded? (profoundly OT, except economy)
One can't know yet, but it's certainly plausible. It explains nearly everything this administration is doing, foreign-policy wise, so it fits the Occam's Razor rule. (If a man consistently acts as if he's in Putin's pocket, maybe it's because he is in Putin's pocket.)
I think we'll find out one or another sooner rather than later. Trump is not exactly a careful man, and in the past he's generally gotten caught for his misdeeds (five bankrupticies, having to pay a settlement for money laundering etc.)
When we do find out, if the reality is anything like Chait suggests, we'll have a constitutional crisis and, perhaps, a big market downturn. So maybe not so OT.
I've concluded it's possible, but to me a larger question is: Does it matter when all of the visible corruption, unethical, immoral, cruel and outrageous behavior is already out in the open and in our faces? I've spoken to people who've theorized about potential conspiracies and asked do we even need such distractions given what is already verifiable without them? Most of them don't have an answer for that. It's sort of like the 2008 economic crash when people were looking for a tortuous paper trail to the evil doers most responsible for it and had trouble proving enough to send anyone to jail. But the thing is the greatest crimes against humanity have always been done under a veneer of legality. It's more sensible and tolerable in a way to say there is some secret underhanded illegal conspiracy than to acknowledge that we are facing institutional failure that is in fact legal, that there are flaws in our system which have been exploited for the worst possible ends and as a result our democracy is now broken.
The market demands a broad Trump-Russia theory — but the evidence doesn’t support one
Jonathan Chait does present an interesting and suggestive interpretation of Trump's relationship with Russia. (Check out David Moran's link in his original post, above.)
However, in an attempt to maintain some semblance of balance, here is an opinion piece from The Washington Post that takes a different view of the situation, with specific reference to that Jonathan Chait presentation.
Note that you'd better be ready to assign a fair amount of time to these articles... both are rather long and very extensive on detail.
read it, not as persuasive or detailed as I was hoping
I'll try "private browsing." ... YES, I read the WaPo thing. Reasonable. Anyhow, the Trumpster's Admin. is even less legitimate that the GWB Presidency. The current corruption these days starts right at the top. Can you spell "emoluments?" I knew you could.
The problem I have is WHY? NYMag not doing itself any favors. Trump wants to be President so bad he is afraid Russians will spill the beans on him? He is "afraid" of Putin? If he is a racist dictator why would he be afraid?
I can understand he might have resorted to unsavory means so he could win at all costs. One of the reasons Trump is President is because the Libes are not able to control their rhetoric. For some reason that matters more than when Pubes are not able to do the same.
This the reason people believe EVERYTHING is fake news.
PS - That "1987" paragraph is horses*** IMO. The guy can't think for 2 minutes straight, you think he has some long term plan? You gotta be kidding me.
Why shouldn't I just consider Putin and Trump to be two frat boys that suddenly found themselves with the power to just push buttons with no personal consequence in order to amuse themselves at other people/institutions expense. Kind of like a juvenile panty raid by two individuals who could care less about the impact on the owners of the panties. (It's as good a theory as many that are out there.)
Hi @Anna I've drifted way past a response to your notation; although somewhat tied to the original post regarding the economy. Apologies to you and all....I don't really like thread drift. Sometimes the thoughts just fall out from what I "see" at the time. You comments cover a fair overview of their (Potus and Putin) "antics". I don't disagree with the comparative. As you too, well understand, the problem lays when the juveniles never have a consequence that impacts them in the negative. The panty raids move to more serious forms of vulgar (as noted in the below link/test).
---the below link is a test for psychopath/sociopath tendencies. One does not have to perform the test; but merely read the questions to determine a yes or no.
Sidenote: I have voted R or D since 1968. Local, state or national. None of these folks have a perfect plan and sadly some good folks have to choose a party alignment, regardless; and become lost in the mix. As to the POTUS, during the early portion of the republican debates and tv time; when Trump uttered that Sen. John McCain was a loser "because he was taken prisoner" and several other outrageous "diarrhea of the mouth" comments; I didn't need to know more about this person. Vulgar to the bone and more. IMHO, a common sense, moderate republican should have run the other direction, but............ ........but, I understand some of the vote and voters in Michigan. There are entrenched R's, of course; there are fence sitters and the have not's, but wanna-be in the R's group. They have few other means of advancement, in many cases, of their own decision making and feel the Dems will "steal/tax" their money for the wrong reasons. 'Course, it appears there will not be any real fixes for their status in live; but they will hold onto perceptions and theories of everything will be better. The financial melt of 10 years ago remains a "this time is different" and when added into the current political aspect, OMG. Over many years, I've had conversations and questions to some of these folks. Many are conflicted with their thinking, kinda caught in a "catch 22" situation mentally and can't find a clear path forward; and generally, in my humble opinion are not clear thinkers who would also crash and burn as investors. Many are anti organized labor, cause any good Republican should be, yes? The formation of organized labor in Michigan in the late 1930's caused a societal change of consequence. This movement was just not from 1930 or 1935 or any other date in this time range one chooses; but from worker abuses dating back to earlier periods of mining, steel and oil, etc. in the U.S., and being a carryover from similar practices in Europe. A few examples of these Michigan R's caught in their own "catch 22" , not in chronological order and forgoing quotes: --- Regarding a sizable semi-industrial county where 2 work associates live.......You are well aware that 25% receive some form of welfare in your county; and they claim to be Republicans, yes? They vote R and yet can attribute their welfare benefits to "D's" in the state legislature. How can this be? The answers usually run some form of religious/anti-abortion, pro-gun format. 'Cep't these folks wouldn't have their generous welfare benefits, except from the D's, cause the R's are not generally in favor of such programs. --- No new taxes to fix our roads (from 2 years ago).......My question: How do you think these roads were built in the beginning? Answer, Well,.............. uh, money from the state budget from taxes and appropriated, eh? So, you don't want to pay taxes today to repair the roads that are very much past their useful live? No ! K. I how your children and your grandchildren don't have a serious accident or otherwise from poor and dangerous roads. --- Were do you think your grandparents and parents wage, health and pension benefits found their birth? Sadly, too often; they have not really thought about this and seem to ponder that these benefits were from "magical place". I'm sorry for you that you assumed this world of benefits would never disappear and that you were not provided guidance when young that you probably should obtain a college education for your financial betterment, and that the days of a high school education level education and stepping into the doors of being hired on the spot into an auto industry job no longer exist and started dying in the mid-1980's. These "benefits" carried to most of the non-auto related jobs in Michigan from 70 years ago; whether union work or not. A level of entry for work benefits had been established. Most major employers had to "match" these benefits to compete for talented works for their particular organization. --- An RN nurse, retired in 2017. Yes, she obtained a 4 year degree; in order to qualify as an RN in Michigan. She and her husband are very right wing thinkers and voters. Her husband had a very serious health problem from 20 years ago and could no longer work. Her health insurance benefit from her employer continued to cover many costs for his ongoing care/meds. Her last work position (management area) did not require her to be a union member; however, much of her benefits appreciations during her work career were the result of benefit continuance from the largest part of the work force, being the RN's; who are required to be union members at this time. In addition to a very good health insurance benefit, she also had a very good 403b program, as well as a great pension plan. Her gross monthly pension payment is rounded to $4,500/month.
As to the future of Michigan. Well, the hugh boomer population finds many already retired and many more each day. These same folks spent a boat load of money on every imaginable toy and vacation property during their working years. They will continue to spend money into the economy from generous pensions, as well as SS and perhaps some folks will have IRA type monies to spend as well. However, only the IRA type monies and any real property will be able to transfer to heirs. What might this indicate for 20 years into the future as the boomers will also continue to expire? I expect much of the inherited property (primary residence and the many "vacation" properties) will be sold by the kids. This is normal, yes? For Michigan, perhaps more so; as many of the kids have left the state over the years from lack of employment opportunities. They'll take the "sale" money and run; and remain where they now live. Some real estate sales continue from the living boomers, as the "snowbirds" have decided to finally live in the warm states they have visited for many years, in addition to possible state tax benefits relative to Michigan. A lot of potential cash spending is and will continue to leave Michigan, IMHO.
Well, I've completely surpassed my allotted write time here at MFO and likely have not fully or properly expressed some of this in a meaningful or understandable matter with skimming of the thoughts.
Summary: Partial lyric from "Ten Years After", British blues and rock band..... I'd love to change the world, but I don't know what to do; So, I'll leave it up to you..... Sadly, this is a summary I perceive from too folks I've conversed with over the years; resulting in a " I've got mine, you get yours". Currently, there isn't as much to "get" by "those" today in Michigan.
Well, the very worst frat boys on the very meanest panty raid never wind up harming and endangering (and in Putin's case approving the murders of) millions of others.
Summary: Partial lyric from "Ten Years After", British blues and rock band..... I'd love to change the world, but I don't know what to do; So, I'll leave it up to you..... No one else will say it: that statement is profoundly theological. Some call it "original sin." Or "the human condition." Or, from Pogo: "We have met the enemy and he is us." There are no easy answers. But this could be a much better world for everyone. What's stopping us? Ourselves. Vested interests. Institutionalized vested interests. And it's a sociological fact that people institutionalize what's important to them--- like protecting their own vested interests. This world's society will never live in perfect harmony and bliss because no one is perfect. Radically individualized capitalism isn't helping at all, though. ("I got mine, go get yours. Oh, you mean you DIDN'T inherit a bundle from mom and dad? Why not? I guess you'll have to pay for why they didn't leave anything behind...") Uncle Donald's logic: "who needs ethics? Who needs a conscience? They'll just hold you back from getting obscenely wealthy. What, you mean getting obscenely wealthy is not what life's about?! Who SAID that????? How DARE you?"
Comments
I think we'll find out one or another sooner rather than later. Trump is not exactly a careful man, and in the past he's generally gotten caught for his misdeeds (five bankrupticies, having to pay a settlement for money laundering etc.)
When we do find out, if the reality is anything like Chait suggests, we'll have a constitutional crisis and, perhaps, a big market downturn. So maybe not so OT.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.npr.org/2018/07/08/627042776/trump-administration-freezes-payments-required-by-the-affordable-care-act
Jonathan Chait does present an interesting and suggestive interpretation of Trump's relationship with Russia. (Check out David Moran's link in his original post, above.)
However, in an attempt to maintain some semblance of balance, here is an opinion piece from The Washington Post that takes a different view of the situation, with specific reference to that Jonathan Chait presentation.
Note that you'd better be ready to assign a fair amount of time to these articles... both are rather long and very extensive on detail.
read it, not as persuasive or detailed as I was hoping
YES, I read the WaPo thing. Reasonable. Anyhow, the Trumpster's Admin. is even less legitimate that the GWB Presidency. The current corruption these days starts right at the top. Can you spell "emoluments?" I knew you could.
https://78.media.tumblr.com/99cae2fb27e40db7e7ca82cc293ab184/tumblr_ocd2pygvLy1toamj8o1_250.gif
I can understand he might have resorted to unsavory means so he could win at all costs. One of the reasons Trump is President is because the Libes are not able to control their rhetoric. For some reason that matters more than when Pubes are not able to do the same.
This the reason people believe EVERYTHING is fake news.
PS - That "1987" paragraph is horses*** IMO. The guy can't think for 2 minutes straight, you think he has some long term plan? You gotta be kidding me.
I've drifted way past a response to your notation; although somewhat tied to the original post regarding the economy. Apologies to you and all....I don't really like thread drift. Sometimes the thoughts just fall out from what I "see" at the time.
You comments cover a fair overview of their (Potus and Putin) "antics". I don't disagree with the comparative. As you too, well understand, the problem lays when the juveniles never have a consequence that impacts them in the negative. The panty raids move to more serious forms of vulgar (as noted in the below link/test).
---the below link is a test for psychopath/sociopath tendencies. One does not have to perform the test; but merely read the questions to determine a yes or no.
https://psychcentral.com/quizzes/psychopathy-quiz/
Sidenote: I have voted R or D since 1968. Local, state or national. None of these folks have a perfect plan and sadly some good folks have to choose a party alignment, regardless; and become lost in the mix.
As to the POTUS, during the early portion of the republican debates and tv time; when Trump uttered that Sen. John McCain was a loser "because he was taken prisoner" and several other outrageous "diarrhea of the mouth" comments; I didn't need to know more about this person. Vulgar to the bone and more.
IMHO, a common sense, moderate republican should have run the other direction, but............
........but, I understand some of the vote and voters in Michigan. There are entrenched R's, of course; there are fence sitters and the have not's, but wanna-be in the R's group. They have few other means of advancement, in many cases, of their own decision making and feel the Dems will "steal/tax" their money for the wrong reasons. 'Course, it appears there will not be any real fixes for their status in live; but they will hold onto perceptions and theories of everything will be better. The financial melt of 10 years ago remains a "this time is different" and when added into the current political aspect, OMG.
Over many years, I've had conversations and questions to some of these folks. Many are conflicted with their thinking, kinda caught in a "catch 22" situation mentally and can't find a clear path forward; and generally, in my humble opinion are not clear thinkers who would also crash and burn as investors.
Many are anti organized labor, cause any good Republican should be, yes? The formation of organized labor in Michigan in the late 1930's caused a societal change of consequence. This movement was just not from 1930 or 1935 or any other date in this time range one chooses; but from worker abuses dating back to earlier periods of mining, steel and oil, etc. in the U.S., and being a carryover from similar practices in Europe.
A few examples of these Michigan R's caught in their own "catch 22" , not in chronological order and forgoing quotes:
--- Regarding a sizable semi-industrial county where 2 work associates live.......You are well aware that 25% receive some form of welfare in your county; and they claim to be Republicans, yes? They vote R and yet can attribute their welfare benefits to "D's" in the state legislature. How can this be? The answers usually run some form of religious/anti-abortion, pro-gun format. 'Cep't these folks wouldn't have their generous welfare benefits, except from the D's, cause the R's are not generally in favor of such programs.
--- No new taxes to fix our roads (from 2 years ago).......My question: How do you think these roads were built in the beginning? Answer, Well,.............. uh, money from the state budget from taxes and appropriated, eh? So, you don't want to pay taxes today to repair the roads that are very much past their useful live? No ! K. I how your children and your grandchildren don't have a serious accident or otherwise from poor and dangerous roads.
--- Were do you think your grandparents and parents wage, health and pension benefits found their birth? Sadly, too often; they have not really thought about this and seem to ponder that these benefits were from "magical place". I'm sorry for you that you assumed this world of benefits would never disappear and that you were not provided guidance when young that you probably should obtain a college education for your financial betterment, and that the days of a high school education level education and stepping into the doors of being hired on the spot into an auto industry job no longer exist and started dying in the mid-1980's.
These "benefits" carried to most of the non-auto related jobs in Michigan from 70 years ago; whether union work or not. A level of entry for work benefits had been established. Most major employers had to "match" these benefits to compete for talented works for their particular organization.
--- An RN nurse, retired in 2017. Yes, she obtained a 4 year degree; in order to qualify as an RN in Michigan. She and her husband are very right wing thinkers and voters. Her husband had a very serious health problem from 20 years ago and could no longer work. Her health insurance benefit from her employer continued to cover many costs for his ongoing care/meds. Her last work position (management area) did not require her to be a union member; however, much of her benefits appreciations during her work career were the result of benefit continuance from the largest part of the work force, being the RN's; who are required to be union members at this time.
In addition to a very good health insurance benefit, she also had a very good 403b program, as well as a great pension plan. Her gross monthly pension payment is rounded to $4,500/month.
As to the future of Michigan. Well, the hugh boomer population finds many already retired and many more each day. These same folks spent a boat load of money on every imaginable toy and vacation property during their working years. They will continue to spend money into the economy from generous pensions, as well as SS and perhaps some folks will have IRA type monies to spend as well. However, only the IRA type monies and any real property will be able to transfer to heirs. What might this indicate for 20 years into the future as the boomers will also continue to expire? I expect much of the inherited property (primary residence and the many "vacation" properties) will be sold by the kids. This is normal, yes? For Michigan, perhaps more so; as many of the kids have left the state over the years from lack of employment opportunities. They'll take the "sale" money and run; and remain where they now live. Some real estate sales continue from the living boomers, as the "snowbirds" have decided to finally live in the warm states they have visited for many years, in addition to possible state tax benefits relative to Michigan. A lot of potential cash spending is and will continue to leave Michigan, IMHO.
Well, I've completely surpassed my allotted write time here at MFO and likely have not fully or properly expressed some of this in a meaningful or understandable matter with skimming of the thoughts.
Summary: Partial lyric from "Ten Years After", British blues and rock band..... I'd love to change the world, but I don't know what to do; So, I'll leave it up to you.....
Sadly, this is a summary I perceive from too folks I've conversed with over the years; resulting in a " I've got mine, you get yours". Currently, there isn't as much to "get" by "those" today in Michigan.
Take care,
Catch
No one else will say it: that statement is profoundly theological. Some call it "original sin." Or "the human condition." Or, from Pogo: "We have met the enemy and he is us." There are no easy answers. But this could be a much better world for everyone. What's stopping us? Ourselves. Vested interests. Institutionalized vested interests. And it's a sociological fact that people institutionalize what's important to them--- like protecting their own vested interests. This world's society will never live in perfect harmony and bliss because no one is perfect. Radically individualized capitalism isn't helping at all, though. ("I got mine, go get yours. Oh, you mean you DIDN'T inherit a bundle from mom and dad? Why not? I guess you'll have to pay for why they didn't leave anything behind...") Uncle Donald's logic: "who needs ethics? Who needs a conscience? They'll just hold you back from getting obscenely wealthy. What, you mean getting obscenely wealthy is not what life's about?! Who SAID that????? How DARE you?"