Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

China stocks in bear market

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3366151-chinese-stocks-enter-bear-market

Tipie toe in?!


'Chinese stocks growled their way into a bear market overnight, taking the Shanghai Composite's loss since a January high to 20% and wiping out $1.8T in market value.
Investors have largely ignored government measures to support market sentiment, including a weekend bank reserve-ratio cut, as trade tensions add concerns about Beijing's deleveraging campaign and weaker-than-expected economic data.
Shanghai -0.5% to 2,845. '

Comments

  • No, the trade war has just began. Six months from now, maybe.
  • @Sven ... Ditto

    I’ve experienced bear markets. I know bear markets. Bear markets are a friend of mine. John, this is no bear market.
  • @hank,

    In a globally connected economy, the drawdown will likely to spread widely. The steel and aluminum tariff already creating pain in US-based companies such as Harley-
    Davidson and others. Even with our allies in Europe and Japan, it is a mess...
    https://washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/25/the-first-layoffs-from-trumps-tariffs-are-here/?utm_term=.9071ebc01a27
  • edited June 2018
    And likely to get much messier before it's over... this from The Wall Street Journal:

    As Trade Barriers Go Up, Global Supply Chains Unravel

    "The numbers of jobs gained and lost probably end up a wash. The real costs are higher prices and fewer choices for consumers."

    "But imposing tariffs on existing supply chains is rife with unintended consequences."


    For example:

    "Canadian steel uses iron ore from Minnesota, so Mr. Trump’s tariffs hurt both. About 17% of the value of Mexican-made cars exported to the U.S. originated in the U.S.

    "Beckett Gas Inc., family-owned manufacturer of components for boilers, furnaces and water heaters, has over the years shifted production from abroad to its Cleveland-area factories. By continuously improving its production process, it has avoided price increases and now sells all over the world.

    But that arrangement has been endangered by the 25% tariff on imported steel, the dominant input into Beckett’s products. “There are only foreign competitors to what we do,” Morrison Carter, the company’s chief executive, says. Those competitors now have a 25% cost advantage."


  • edited June 2018

    And Robert Samuelson weighs in via The Washington Post:

    "We’re going to lose this trade war"

    "If we are to have a “trade war” with China, it would be best to win it. We should be better off after the fighting. Unfortunately, the chances of this happening seem slim to none, because President Trump’s plan of attack suggests that everyone — us and them — will lose."

    "Trump has suggested imposing a 25 percent tariff on imported cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles and parts. This might reduce the trade deficit, but only because higher-priced vehicles would reduce consumer demand and vehicle production. Other countries would retaliate. The estimated U.S. job loss would total 624,000 over one to three years."

    "But whatever Congress and Trump do won’t be effective [against China] unless it’s matched by other major trading countries. Trump either doesn’t realize this or doesn’t care. He’s infuriating the very countries whose support he desperately needs. His policies are more than misguided; they’re backward."

    "The resulting antagonisms among our allies — already evident... would intensify." "This is doing long-term damage. Trump is upending U.S. trade policy since World War II — one of the most successful policies in history.”


    (The excerpts above have been lightly edited for brevity.)
  • @Mark and all, thanks for the tariff links. I have not had time to review all of the areas impacted.
    Please, y'all keep giving links to tariff area impacts.........perhaps I need to start a direct thread.
    Mark, may I link your abcnews report to a new thread????
  • Help yourself.
  • Don't forget the tariff related layoffs.

    Harley Davidson's announcement..
    fortune.com/2018/06/25/trump-faces-trade-war-fallout-layoffs-stock-declines-harleys-move-offshore/

    Auto manufacturers are likely to follow.
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/auto-tariffs-final-step-to-economic-disaster-linamar-ceo-says

    All these consequences do not paint a rosy economic pictures going forward.

Sign In or Register to comment.